Top 4 Obstacles and Boosters for New Home Construction

Posted in National Housing Market | Posted on 10-17-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hHousing starts rose by 6.3% in September, which places activity 17.8% above September of last year, according to the government report just released at 8:30.

Read full article on Builder

Top five things to learn at the Land and Homebuilding Conference.

Posted in National Housing Market | Posted on 10-06-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

brad h - With land and lot prices having shot up,  are there any bargains left, and where should you look for them?

- What are the risks that the large builders will overdo it again this time around?   How can one protect oneself from the damage?

- How can the market due diligence process be sped up?

- Now that some buyers are falling off of land deals, what is the opportunity to “swoop in.”

- How will the inevitable builder “margin squeeze” affect land-buying behavior, and private equity returns?

Catch Metrostudy’s Chief Economist, Brad Hunter’s on October 7th at 8:45 AM and 12:30 PM

8:45 AM - Market Update… Where are we in the Homebuilding Cycle? 

12:30 PM - Feasibility Studies & the True Cost of Land Development

 

Six Takes on Housing from Metrostudy

Posted in National Housing Market | Posted on 09-29-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

Everybody wants a piece of Brad Hunter’s housing expertise these days!

brad hChief economist Brad Hunter opined on buyers, sellers, hot markets, and the overall temperature of the housing market in six media interviews this past week.

Click Here to See All Interviews

Rio Grande Valley Housing: Metrostudy 2Q14 Survey Results

Posted in Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 09-25-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

Metrostudy’s 2Q14 survey of the Rio Grande Valley housing market shows that the region continues to lag behind the rest of the state in terms of economic and housing activity.  The annual rate of new home construction in the Rio Grande Valley in 2Q14 is 1,850 starts, up 12%, from 2Q13.  The Rio Grande Valley had 430 starts in the 2nd quarter, up 18% over 2Q13.  The number of new home closings in the year ending 2Q14 was 1,874, up 190 units, or 11.3%, over the 2Q13 rate of 1,684. There were 470 closings in the 2nd quarter, up 39% over 2Q13.

It is worth noting that the top 58 subdivisions ranked by annual starts [in this group a minimum of 9 starts] garnered a 54% share of the 2Q14 annual rate of 1,850. The remaining 387 subdivisions generate the other 46% share of annual starts. In that regard, there were 280 subdivisions that had fewer than 4 starts, including 129 that showed no starts over the past year.

Even as the RGV continues to lag the growth in the state as a whole, the analysis shows that there has been steady growth, a much needed improvement over the last few years, just not extraordinary. Inventories are improving, prices are rising, and there is a good pocket of construction in the most active subdivision group.  For the near future, when observing the RGV housing market, the overall analysis will look somewhat mediocre while at the same time there will be a core group that generates more than 50% of all new home construction, holding tighter inventories and exhibiting better trends.

“There are still issues with excess housing inventories in both the new home and resale markets, in addition to the foreclosures that continue to dot the landscape,” said Inselmann. “Real recovery doesn’t expose itself until inventories are brought back in line with demand, and that still remains somewhere down the line. If recent history is the indicator, the future will be slow and methodical improving a little bit at a time, which at least is a good direction to be moving in.”

For information contact: jack inselmann @ 210.710.3635
Email jacki@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

 

New Subdivisions in the Midwest?

Posted in Chicago Market, Indianapolis Market, Twin Cities Market | Posted on 09-25-2014 | Written by Chris Huecksteadt

 

chris h for newsletter onlyA sure sign of a recovering housing market?  How about new lot development occurring for the first time in several years!  Surveying the Chicago, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis/St. Paul markets Metrostudy has noticed that new subdivisions are beginning to come through the pipeline.  Not a re-hashing of existing communities or a re-configuring of existing developments, but new land, being newly developed.  In 2010, in the Chicago market, there were a total of 383 new lots delivered.  Three HUNDRED and eighty three!!!  There are nearly ten million people living in this market and Chicago could only muster a few hundred new home sites during a 12-month period, a mere 30 new lots coming on line per month.  Through the first six months of 2014, there were a total of nearly 1,500 new lots delivered.  Not only that, but we are beginning to see proposals for new subdivisions that didn’t exist just a few years ago.  That may not seem like much in some markets, but here in the midwest, developers have been in hibernation for the better part of the past five years.  Development activity has not been as scarce in Indianapolis and the Twin Cities as it has been in Chicago, but nearly so.  In the Twin Cities, for example, a total of 964 new lots were delivered in 2010.  In 2013, there were 3,683 new lot deliveries.  Indianapolis has seen a total of 1,400 new lots delivered in the first six months of 2014, compared to just 650 through the first half of 2010.  As midwest markets have slowly recovered, builders and developers have recognized the need for fresh lot inventory.  Quality A and B lots are nearing critical levels of remaining inventory, fewer than 18 months of supply in all three markets.  Given the length of time necessary to bring new lots to the market, developers have been very busy over the past twelve-months in an attempt to keep the housing industry supplied with lots in the most desirable locations.  Look for continued new lot development activity in these markets for the next few years as we play catch-up in order to resupply these markets.

chris h

 

 

 

New Single-Family Home sales up in August , but not in every market

Posted in National Housing Market | Posted on 09-24-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

 

brad hSales of new single-family houses in August 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, up by a startling 18%.   This is according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. 

Read Full Article Here

Also see Brad Hunter’s interview on CNBC discussing data from today’s housing report and he explains why the Western housing market is so hot!

Metrostudy’s Top 15 Markets as measured by change in move-ins

Posted in National Housing Market | Posted on 09-18-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

Metrostudy does a 100% count within markets across the country of move-ins into newly-built homes.  This is a powerful and reliable measure of end-user demand.  The top two markets have outsized percentage changes because they are starting from a low base number.  In terms of the large markets, Central Florida has seen a 24.3% increase in new home demand in the past year, and Charlotte, NC, has seen a 23.4%.  Atlanta, which was savaged by the downturn, has seen a 22.9% increase.  New home construction is picking up in all of these markets, as builders scramble to meet increased demand.

august

Housing Starts Decline in August

Posted in National Housing Market | Posted on 09-18-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

 

Today’s government data release on housing starts showed a 14.4% decline in the month of August, mostly driven by multifamily.  Single-family detached home construction was only down 2.4% on the month.  Total starts are still 8.0% higher than August of last year, and single-family starts are still 4.2% above the year-ago pace.

The apparent stagnation in national housing starts is not universal.  Looking deeper, and using Metrostudy’s more granular detail, we see that certain markets have seen considerable strength.  In our local-market tracking, we are still seeing significant gains versus a year ago in Atlanta (+16.2%), Nashville (+11.0%).  Southern California is also up sharply compared with this time a year ago (+16.7%), and Chicago has pulled itself up a bit from its recently extremely low levels as well (+15.4%).

New home production has gyrated month-to-month, but all in all, this has been a “flat” year, as measured by the Census Bureau data.  Totaling all housing starts in 2014, the number is only going to end up a few percentage points higher than in 2013.

Builder sentiment is still improving, reflecting the adjustment of home buyers to the higher level of home prices, and higher confidence in their personal finances.  Job growth is still erratic, but generally trending higher, and overall spending power of consumers is up.

Single-family starts fell 80% during the downturn, and have since only made it back to about 50% of “normal.”  Improving demand, combined with a need for public homebuilders to open more communities, will push the level of starts higher by 15% to 20% next year.

In thinking about the forecast, it is vital to look not just at home production, but also at the demand for new housing.  We measure demand the hard way:  we drive new subdivisions counting curtains and welcome mats.  The pace of move-ins has risen almost 10%, comparing projected calendar year 2014 with actual calendar year 2013.  That shows that the increases in housing starts is justified by bona fide user-driven demand.

 

Metrostudy Acquires New Home Trends

Posted in National Housing Market | Posted on 09-15-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

Enhances Geographic Coverage and Service Offerings in Pacific Northwest

Washington, D.C. – September 15, 2014 – Metrostudy, Inc., a Hanley Wood company and the leading provider of primary research and analysis to the U.S. housing industry, announced today that it has acquired New Home Trends, Inc., a real estate research and consulting business serving the Pacific Northwest United States.

“The acquisition of New Home Trends represents an important step in Metrostudy’s growth strategy by enhancing our geographic scope and coverage,” said Peter Goldstone, CEO of Hanley Wood.  “The addition of Seattle, the 10th largest US MSA, completes our national footprint with local coverage in all of the top 20 MSAs.”

New Home Trends is based in Bothell, WA.  In addition to the Seattle market, New Home Trends offers extensive research coverage and analysis in Portland, OR, Boise, ID and Spokane, WA.

“Seattle is one of the fastest growing housing markets in the United States, making it an important growth opportunity for our customers,” said Chris Veator, President of Metrostudy.   “New Home Trends has deep knowledge and research capabilities in the Pacific Northwest that will greatly complement our existing Metrostudy platform and allow us to offer an even more robust and valuable product platform to our customers.”

New Home Trends will be combined with Metrostudy and operate under the Metrostudy brand name.  Todd Britsch, President of New Home Trends, will continue his leadership role in the business as Regional Director for the Seattle and Oregon region.

“We are extremely excited about this transaction and the opportunities it will create for our employees and customers,” said Britsch.  “Metrostudy has an exceptional management team that recognizes the value of our platform and our expertise in the markets we serve.  Our customers will greatly benefit from enhanced and additional services and functionality offered by the combined business.”

Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

 

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

 

About New Home Trends

New Home Trends provides the research and consulting needed to stay ahead of the Pacific Northwest’s dynamic Real Estate market. New Home Trends combines an extensive database of residential building information with experience, vision, and market knowledge and provides full-scale consulting services and on-demand reports for each community in the development process. For more information, visit www.newhometrends.com.

 

Indianapolis 2Q14 Housing Survey: Despite Signs of a Stabilizing Market, Forecasts Revised Downward

Posted in Indianapolis Market | Posted on 09-03-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • New lot development is at highs unseen in years; Lot inventory is at lowest monthly level since 2006
  • Despite recent uptick in annual starts, 2Q14 New Home Starts down 2.3% over 2Q13
  • We are revising our initial forecast of 5,000-5,500 new home starts in 2014 downwards to 4,250-4,750 for the year

September 2014: Metrostudy’s 2Q14 survey of the Indianapolis housing market showed many positive signs of continuing recovery in the sector, not withstanding a mid-summer slowdown.  Including single-family detached units, townhouse units and duplex units in the six- county Indianapolis region; there were a total of 4,293 new units started in the twelve-month period ending 2Q14, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous year. Despite the annual rate’s rise, the 1,233 units started in 2Q14 represents a decline of 2.3% over 2Q13.  The annual rate of closings rose in the second quarter. There were 4,088 closings during the twelve-month period ending 2Q14, a 4.3% increase in annual closings compared to the prior year. The second quarter number of 961 closings is down 5.5% compared to the 2Q13 total of 1,017 closings.

“The recent slowdown is not surprising,” said Chris Huecksteadt, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Indianapolis market. “Many markets throughout the Midwest experienced significant growth in construction activity over the past two years at a growth rate that was not sustainable given the lackluster rate of job growth and elevated levels of unemployment still in evidence.”

Through the first half of 2014, the majority of counties surveyed by Metrostudy saw a decline compared to construction activity in the first half of last year. Hamilton County still leads the way with approximately 41.6% of all new home construction in the Indianapolis market occurring there.     Marion County is next representing 14.6% of Indianapolis new home construction over the past year.    These two counties will likely continue to account for the majority of all new home demand through 2014. In addition, Hendricks and Johnson Counties will continue to generate increased new home construction activity as builders begin to open more communities there.

“With the consistent pace of new home construction and a declining level of vacant developed lot inventory, the months of supply for lots in Indianapolis has fallen from a high of nearly 80 months in 2Q09, to a current level of just 29.5 months,” said Huecksteadt.  “This is the first time below the 30-month threshold since the peak of 2006. New lot development has begun to occur at levels not seen for several years.”

Every market area in Metrostudy’s survey saw a significant decline in the amount of vacant and developed lot inventory during the past year. The most dramatic declines have been in those markets that had limited levels of new lot deliveries: Hancock and Johnson counties. Approximately 100 and 400 lots have been absorbed in each of these counties respectively during the past twelve months.

There are good things occurring in the housing market: resale inventory continues to tighten and prices have been on the rise in the existing home market.  What is lacking is strong economic growth that would provide the fuel that the new home market needs to expand.  Given the current economic situation and inventory levels of both existing and new homes, Metrostudy expects from 4,250 and 4,750 new home starts in 2014.

For information contact Chris Huecksteadt @ 847-651-9080
email chueck@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.