(Albuquerque, NM – May 7, 2012) While renewed optimism is somewhat warranted because of national trends in employment and permit growth, levels are still far below peak as well as historical norms, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

According to the New Mexico Department of Labor, employers shed 100 jobs in the last twelve months as of February. This is certainly a marked improvement over the past 4 years with nearly 30,000 jobs removed from payrolls. “The worst of the layoffs appear to be in the past, but businesses across all sectors have yet to find the confidence to begin hiring again,” said John Covert, Director of Metrostudy’s Colorado division.

303 homes were started in 1Q12, up +38% from 4Q11, and up +29% from 1Q11. Builders closed 285 units in 1Q12, an increase of +12% from last quarter. There were 1,267 annual closings in 1Q12. “As Metrostudy has stated in the past, we believe 2011 will be the low-point for starts as builder inventory remains in check, resale listings continue to fall and pent-up demand for homes will slowly be released as the economy begins to improve,” said Covert.

“While the actual number of finished and vacant units has declined from a year ago, move-ins, or closings are at their lowest levels of this cycle pushing months of supply higher in all price points except the lowest and highest,” said Covert. “Albuquerque builders will have to remain patient a while longer until consumer confidence gets a boost from stabilizing home prices, sustained job creation, and lower unemployment, any combination of which would eventually translate to demand picking up for new homes,” said Covert.

For information contact:
john covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email jcovert@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Albuquerque, NM– March 1, 2012) Job losses and the poor economy continued to plague the Albuquerque housing market in 2011, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Albuquerque’s current employment estimates indicate that employers continue to shed jobs with the loss of 1,700 jobs in the last 12 months, which amounts to a -0.5% annual growth rate. “Much of the country is experiencing modest gains in job formations and declines in unemployment. While Albuquerque is late to the party, expectations are that positive job growth will return in 2012 but at a very modest pace for local employers and job seekers,” said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s Albuquerque division. “However, Albuquerque has a lot of catching up to do, since it has lost nearly 30,000 jobs in the last four years.”

219 homes were started in 4Q11, down 37% over last quarter, and down 21% from 4Q10. Builders started 1,134 homes in 2011, a 31% decline from the 1,638 starts in 2010. “It appears likely that 2011 will be the low-point for housing starts as builder inventory remains very low and resale listings begin to draw down. As the economy recovers pent-up demand for homes will slowly be released,” said Covert.

Builders also closed 278 units in 4Q11, a decline of 25% from the 369 closings in 4Q10. There were 1,301 closings in 2011, a decline of 27% from the 1,784 closings in 2010. “Potential buyers remain in a holding pattern until noticeable signs of economic recovery take hold. As such, pent-up demand continues to swell due to buyer anxiety, declining home values, affordability, trouble selling an existing home, and trouble getting a mortgage,” said Covert.

“Total new home inventory has declined to its lowest levels, but closings have dropped sharply enough to raise the months’ supply of housing inventory,” said Covert. The supply of total inventory is at 8.7 months, up from 7.4 months a year ago.

“It goes without saying that 2012 is going to be another year of hunkering down for builders in this market, even if home starts grow marginally,” said Covert.

For information contact:
John Covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email: jcovert@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Albuquerque, NM – November 1, 2011) 2011 will be the lowest point for builders in Albuquerque as persistent economic woes have weighed heavily on the industry, according to Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm.

“Unfortunately, Albuquerque has yet to experience positive job growth this year driven by employment gains across most sectors,” said John Covert, Metrostudy’s director for the Albuquerque division. Current estimates indicate that employment fell -0.7% by losing -1,600 jobs from last Augusts’ total. This is the 35th consecutive month for in negative territory, amounting to nearly 30,000 jobs removed from the payrolls.

Sales of existing homes were up 7.6% over the year for the month of September, following strong July and August sales. “Historically low mortgage rates this summer and more affordable prices were too attractive for some buyers to ignore and they moved from the sidelines to capitalize,” said Covert.

349 homes were started in the 3rd quarter, up 5% from the 2nd quarter, but down -11% from 3Q10. With the continued decline in quarterly starts, annual starts have also dropped. There were 1,182 annual housing starts for 3Q11, a decline of -30% from the 1,698 annual starts for 3Q10. “This is the lowest annual starts figure posted during the housing recession,” said Covert, “even lower than 2009 when the national and local economies were suffering through their darkest days.”

“This trend reinforces that builders are pushing little speculative inventory into the market, that they are effectively closing homes that are started, and that they are only starting enough homes to meet current demand which is at its lowest point,” said Covert.

“But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Along with a new year come expectations that employers will begin to add to their payrolls giving a much-needed boost to a stagnant economy. As a result, consumer confidence will improve, retail sales will increase, and the resale market will continue to stabilize. Subsequently, declines in real estate values and foreclosure rates will moderate,” said Covert. “Our initial housing forecast for 2012 is for a 20% increase in home starts, which would be a welcomed improvement combined with a slowly growing economy.”

For information contact:
john covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email jcovert@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Albuquerque, NM – August 1, 2011) The government’s debt woes have thrown a wrench into the economic recovery. Consumers are skeptical of any good news about the economy and certainly the homebuilding industry absent any consistently positive reports from day to day, according to Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm.

Albuquerque is one of the few cities still facing negative job growth over the course of the past year. Employment fell –0.8% from last June’s total, the 33rd consecutive month in negative territory. Unemployment remains high which continues to batter an already shaky consumer, according to John Covert, Metrostudy’s director for the Albuquerque division.

There were 3,493 sales of existing homes in the first half of 2011, a decline of –11% compared to the 3,909 sales in the first six months of 2010. “This drop in demanded was expected,” said Covert, “as the comparison to last year is somewhat distorted due to the first time homebuyer tax credit.” Annual sales in June 2011 were 6,765, a decline of –18% compared to the 8,293 annual sales from a year ago. The relative supply of inventory has increased from this time last year to 9.8 months, “a sign that demand remains weak,” said Covert.

338 new homes were started in 2Q11, up 51% from 1Q11 but down –22% from 2Q10. “Again, the homebuyer tax credit distorts the annual comparison. It’s obvious that the tax credit did little to strengthen the Albuquerque housing market, as builders are now back to building the same volume of homes they were prior to the tax credit,” said Covert.

Builders closed 343 units in 2Q11, up 7% from 1Q11, but down –34% from the 516 closings in 2Q10. According to Covert, the gap between housing starts and closings has widened once again as builders remain extremely cautious about specs.

“The uncertainty plaguing our local and national governments is causing skepticism among all housing groups, whether we’re talking about consumers, investors, or builders,” said Covert. “Such skepticism means Albuquerque builders will have to work quite hard to shift wary prospects from the sidelines into sales offices to write contracts. In order for builders to avoid duplicating a year similar to 2009, the lowest during the recession, they will need to start about 900 homes in the second half of 2011, a tall order indeed.”

For information contact:
john covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email jcovert@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Albuquerque, NM– May 1, 2011) Builders should consider several possible paths and plan accordingly, as persistent job creation woes keep a lid on housing demand, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

As many cities across the country begin to experience modest job creation, Albuquerque has yet to pull itself into positive territory. Current estimates indicate that employment fell -0.8% by losing -3,000 jobs from last March’s total.

There were 1,481 sales of existing homes in the first quarter, a decline of -3% compared to first quarter sales in 2010. “Not bad considering the frenzy of activity this time last year as first time homebuyers tried to beat the tax credit deadline” said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s New Mexico division.

There were 1,312 annual housing starts for 1Q11 a decline of -24% from the 1,729 annual starts for 1Q10. Builders also closed 313 units in the first quarter, a decline of -18% from the 382 closings in 1Q10. This was the lowest quarterly closings number counted in a Metrostudy survey.

Buyers must certainly be in a better place today than two and a half years ago, when the economy was in the midst of its worst recession in 80 years,” said Covert. “Yet, the starts numbers suggest otherwise.”

“Jobs will likely turn positive at some point in the next year, buyers and pricing power will return soon after, and builders will start more homes. In the meantime, builders must consider several possible paths, and plan accordingly.”

For information contact:
john covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email jcovert@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Albuquerque, NM– February 1, 2011) The Albuquerque Market is treading water and needs a boost from job creation, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Albuquerque’s job recovery is lagging behind many parts of the country. Current estimates indicate that employment fell -1.8% by losing -6,700 jobs from last November’s total. Albuquerque’s slow recovery places it 351st out of 362 MSA’s in the country for job creation, with only a few major cities like Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, and New York City losing more jobs.

There were 7,181 sales of existing homes in 2010, with monthly over-the-year increases from January through June fueled in part by the final push of the homebuyer’s tax credit. Sales dropped off sharply in the fall and ended the year down 5% from last year’s activity. “On the plus side, the median price of a single family resale home has increased 1.5% from last year to $178,443, but is expected to remain static unless sales increase and inventory declines,” said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s New Mexico division.

According to Metrostudy’s quarterly survey, there were 1,632 annual new home starts in 4Q10, an increase of 12% over 2009 home starts. But builders closed 1,789 homes in 2010; a 6% increase over 2009 closings.

However, the true test of the market’s health would come after the tax credit’s September deadline for closing homes had passed. Builders ended the year by closing 374 units in 4Q10, a -27% decline from 4Q09. Clearly, demand for housing, both resale and new homes, remains in a fragile state until job growth returns. “Look for starts and closings to end 2011 at around the same level,” said Covert.

“Unfortunately, economic recovery has been slower to materialize in Albuquerque compared to others markets around the country. Use caution while the market continues to find its footing, and keep an eye on job creation as the driving force behind homebuilding’s eventual recovery,” said Covert.

For information contact:
john covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email jcovert@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Albuquerque, NM– November 1, 2010) Job losses are slowing and inventory is shrinking, improving the Albuquerque market during 3Q10, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Total employment continues to improve but still showed a month-to-month decrease for the 24th consecutive month. “While the job losses are slowing, and the worst appears behind us, expectations for hiring remains muted until a more clearly defined political and economic future is presented to the business community,” said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s of New Mexico division. In the Albuquerque MSA, businesses shed 4,600 jobs from their payrolls over the last 12 months ending September 2010, declining by 1.7%.

According to Metrostudy’s quarterly survey, there were 1,751 annual home starts in 3Q10, an increase of 32% over last year. Much of the gains were front-loaded during the first six months of the year due to the tax credit push. “Despite the recent pullback in activity, Albuquerque will likely start around 1,800 homes in 2010 for an increase of about 20% over 2009,” said Covert. Builders closed 1,925 homes in the past year, a 9% increase over 3Q09 annual figures, and the first annual increase since 1Q07.

Because closing outpaced starts, inventory is down. Total inventory declined to 1,333 units, down 7% from 3Q09 to an 8.3 month supply. Finished vacant units (711) are down 3% from 3Q08 but up 5% from a year ago. This represents a 4.4 month supply

“The tax credit provided a boost to the industry, but what’s needed is real, sustainable, organic demand, drawing from job growth, steady in-migration, and growing consumer confidence,” said Covert. “However, Albuquerque builders will come across the finish line in 2010 having started 20% more homes than last year, and that’s a good thing.”

For information contact:
john covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email jcovert@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Albuquerque, NM– August 1, 2010) Builders should use caution and resist starting more homes than necessary, as the Albuquerque housing market doesn’t seem poised for growth in 2010, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the U.S. Housing market.

“Several factors point to the fact that builders should use caution. The first is the amount of existing home inventory on the market,” said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s New Mexico division. Existing inventory as of June stood at 6,346 homes, a 9.7 month supply. Although existing home sales were up 23% compared to the first 6 months of 2009, with 3,909 homes sold, the number of listings also was higher.

“Also, new home inventories are still on the high side of equilibrium,” said Covert. The number of finished vacant inventory homes in Albuquerque has ticked up for the second consecutive quarter to 768 units, an increase of 2% over the 750 units in 1Q10, and up 7% from the 717 finished vacant units on the ground a year ago. This represents a 5 month supply which is still well above the 1.5-2.0 month equilibrium.

“These factors, coupled with weak pricing power, negative job growth, and the risk of rising foreclosures point to the fact that builders should resist any urge to start more homes than is absolutely necessary until the overall economy improves enough to push demand forward,” said Covert. Current estimates indicate that Albuquerque employment fell 1.8% by losing 2,500 jobs from last May’s total employment. While measurable job creation has yet to take place, the losses appear to have peaked at the end of last year and the unemployment has come off its recent high of 9.1% in March, now down to 8.2% in May.

Covert notes that the market isn’t without hope. “In the past year, those 1st time and
entry-level buyers have helped salvage an industry that was on its knees with a 46% increase in starts under $200,000,” said Covert. “While first time homebuyers haven’t gone away and remain a vital part of our long-term recovery, the industry must now look to job formations, price stabilization, and the return of consumer confidence for a healthy and sustained housing market moving forward.”

For information contact:
john covert @ 720.493.2020 x 201
email jcovert@metrostudy.com

(Albuquerque, NM – May 7, 2010) The Albuquerque housing market seems to be showing signs of life as builders have started more homes than were closed in the previous twelve months. According to Metrostudy’s quarterly survey, 1Q10 annual home starts in the 3-County Albuquerque Area (Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia) increased to 1,724, up 4% from last year, said John Covert, director of Metrostudy’s Albuquerque division.

Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm, conducts a count of 100 percent of all new housing units in subdivisions within the market area each quarter.

This is the first time since the close of 2006 that the market started more homes than it closed. There was an increase of 117% in starts in 1Q10, from 246 in 1Q09 to 534. While the trend is promising, consumer sentiment seems to be wary. Builders closed 377 units in the first quarter, which is 4% lower than 1Q09, and annual closings suffered a 33% decline to 1,677 units.

Value-conscious consumers are opting for more affordable homes on smaller lots – a trend that will continue until the economy improves. Supply of lots for homes priced under $150,000 has dropped from 32 months to 23 months, while lots with less than 50’ of frontage have a 46-month supply in Albuquerque, said Covert.

As these quality lots continue to be sold, developments with demand and adequate funding will continue to add lots. Because the replacement cost to deliver a new 50’ lot for a $200,000 home will exceed what is available today, the window to deliver affordable homes at current prices on smaller lots will begin to close once the existing lots are spoken for.

Albuquerque’s new home inventory (homes that are under construction, finished but vacant, and models) peaked in 3Q06 at 4,667 units and has dropped to 1,393 in 1Q10, a 70% reduction. However, total inventory levels have remained relatively constant in the last year, actually increasing 6% from a year ago from 6.5 to 10 months.

Finished vacant homes are at 4.4 months of supply and make up 613 of the total inventory figure. Finished housing stock at 2.0 months is at equilibrium. Albuquerque’s housing stock is still well above equilibrium. The market is still seeing excesses, mainly at higher price points, even as builders have diligently concentrated on building homes that could be built and sold quickly. Only finished vacant homes in the $150,000 segment experienced a reduction in months of supply, now at 1.9 months as compared to 3.2 months a year ago.

The Albuquerque area has suffered a 2.1 decrease in employment since last March, though the losses are slowing. The unemployment rate of 9.0% has increased in recent months, suggesting that many previously displaced job seekers have recently begun searching for jobs once again. While local homebuilding seems to be pointing towards the positive, consumers seem to be playing a waiting game until substantial job growth returns.