Housing starts up strong, with some stand-out markets

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Charlotte Market, Inland Empire Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Reno Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market | Posted on 08-19-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

See Top 10 Markets for New Residential  Construction Here 

brad hHousing starts numbers out today surprised many observers with its strength (+15.7%), but we find it to have been in line with our actual counts, released earlier this month. As we predicted, last month’s Census estimate was revised upward, and now the numbers are back in line with the trends revealed by the Metrostudy roll-ups.

The last release of housing starts data from the Census Bureau caused undue alarm about a collapse of activity in the South.  The Census release had shown a 29.6% decline for total starts in the South, but as we pointed out at the time, this exaggerated the weakness in the south. As a matter of fact Metrostudy’s research shows that several markets in the south are up, both based on prior quarter results, and year ago. Raleigh was down 5% versus a year ago, but Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, and South Florida showed increases.

Metrostudy’s data show that some of the most “beaten-down” markets are now doing better.  In Las Vegas, for example, housing starts were up 16% from 1st quarter 2014 to 2nd quarter 2014, and Phoenix showed a 12.3% increase quarter-on-quarter (though it is still down sharply year-on-year). Housing starts in Chicago were up 87% quarter-on-quarter, and up 30% year-on-year.  Naples Florida showed double-digit gains, both quarterly and annually.

Some significant trends were evident in Metrostudy’s data in California. Housing starts in the Riverside area rose 48.5% quarter on quarter, and are up 14% year-on-year.

We are seeing an increase in lot development in Riverside as lot shortages around the I-15 Corridor have intensified. The Inland Empire is developing its own economy, with 3% job growth, meaning that is it is no longer just a bedroom community for L.A.

Housing starts in Northern California rose 92% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, and are up 19% year-on-year. Starts there are at a record high since the boom. Contra Costa and Alameda County had particularly strong increases.

Also see, Brad Hunter discuss the promising increases in the Residential Remodeling Index and New Residential Construction this month on Bloomberg TV.

 

02/21/13: Metrostudy – 2013 Economic Forecast For HBAMWG Ten County Area

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market, Events | Posted on 02-12-2013 | Written by Eugene James

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HOME BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF MIDWEST GEORGIA
February General Membership Meeting


Sponsored By: Flyer February 21 2013 meeting

2012-2013 Education Sponsor: aFlyer February 21 2013 meeting Contact: Lonnie Williams 770-367-5302

Thursday February 21, 2013


WHERE American Legion Hall Post 105: 180 South Glynn Avenue Fayetteville, Georgia 30215

AGENDA
11:30 a.m. – 1:30 p.m. Pre-Planned Lunch will be served. Please contact HBAMWG at 770-716-7109

SPEAKERS Eugene James - Metrostudy’s Regional Director of  the Atlanta Markets

eugene j

QUESTIONS? Contact HBAMWG at 770-716-7109

Housing: Anatomy of the Rebound

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Austin Market, Chicago Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Las Vegas Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Naples Condo Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Tucson Market, Twin Cities Market | Posted on 01-31-2013 | Written by Brad Hunter

Metrostudy’s new study of housing in markets across the country puts hard numbers to the housing recovery, and provides a detailed look at differences in the trajectory among regions.  The data (collected at the end of calendar year 2012, and newly analyzed) indicate extreme variance among markets and submarkets, with some markets’ single-family production up 90% or more versus a year ago.

Starts of detached homes rose by an impressive 46.9% from year-end 2011 to year-end 2012, and the rebound is starting a virtuous cycle, providing a much-needed boost to personal incomes, which in turn translate into still-higher demand for homes.

It is important to understand the forces that are driving construction activity higher as well as those that are restraining gains in some areas.  In some markets, there are land constraints that work to the advantage of the builders who have lot positions and ongoing projects in those submarkets, keeping the number of head-on competitors low.  Additionally, the builders that have lot positions in lot-constrained submarkets are able to push prices up much more easily, and they have a strong incentive to do so, because:  (1) they can make more profit by selling the homes at higher prices, and, (2) they don’t want to run out of lots too quickly.

Read the rest of this entry »

New Home Starts in Atlanta up by 50%

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market, National Housing Market | Posted on 11-01-2012 | Written by Eugene James

(Atlanta, GA– November 1, 2012) The Atlanta housing market is experiencing demand that is outpacing supply, and with positive employment figures for over 27 consecutive months, the region is expected to see demand continue to rise.

According to the Georgia Department of Labor, new jobs in Atlanta through September 2012 increased by 31,400 positions while private jobs increased by 40,700 positions for the year over year period ending September 2012. The unemployment rate fell dramatically to 7.8%, “still high but a vast improvement from one year ago when the rate was 9.7%” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region, a national housing intelligence and consulting firm.

The Atlanta area saw a 50.3% increase in quarterly housing starts from last year and new home inventory has been depleted in many parts of Atlanta, down 82% from five years ago. “Record low mortgages and positive employment figures have been in the news for a while which is boosting confidence and helping to sell more houses. We expect to see housing demand continue to rise and more builders starting more new homes throughout 2013 and 2014.” said James recently to a group of real estate professionals.

For information contact:
Eugene James @ 404.370.9001 x 111
email ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

11/02/12: Metrostudy 3Q 2012 Atlanta Executive Market Briefing

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market, Events | Posted on 10-25-2012 | Written by Eugene James

Metrostudy’s next Atlanta market briefing is Friday Nov 2. We will review the local and national economies, the resale market, and the results of our third quarter comprehensive survey of the new-home market. Additionally we will be demonstrating our new Metrosearch Insight tool that is iPad, Mac and Windows compatible. Please select the link below to register your attendance:

Click Here to Register

When: Friday November 2, 2012
Where: Greater Atlanta Home builders Association: 1484 Brockett Rd Tucker, GA 30084
(404) 816-0300

When: Friday November 2, 2012
Where: Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association: 1484 Brockett Rd Tucker, GA 30084
(404) 816-0300

Time: 9:00 a.m. Continental Breakfast
9:30 a.m. Market Briefing Begins
10:45 a.m. Market Briefing Adjourns

This is an invitation-only event. Attendees will include only current clients and invited guests from Metrostudy. Please feel free to forward the above link to any of your associates who are Metrostudy clients. If you would like to bring a guest from another company, please contact me to discuss. As always, call me if I can help you with anything. I look forward to seeing you at the briefing.

Eugene James
404-370-9001 ex.111

Look for Atlanta housing demand to rise with positive employment figures

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market | Posted on 05-11-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Atlanta, GA– May 11, 2012) The Atlanta housing market could see a rise in demand with positive employment figures on the way, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing intelligence and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

New jobs in Atlanta through March 2012 increased by 27,400 positions. “Forecasters are predicting net employment gains in Atlanta for 2012 above 30,000,” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region.

The Atlanta area saw a 38.4% increase in quarterly starts from last year and new home inventory has been depleted in various parts of Atlanta, down 21% year over year and down 83% from four years ago.

Housing inventory is down 16% in North Atlanta year over year, and South Atlanta’s inventory is down 33% year over year. “North Atlanta’s finished vacant housing units continue to decline to new lows (5.2 Months Supply in 1Q12 compared to 6.7 in 1Q11), while South Atlanta’s 6.2 Months Supply in 1Q12 is better than last year’s 7.6, but it’s still very high,” said James.

“Over a year ago, we said last quarter that despite record low mortgage rates, as long as employment numbers remain dreadful many potential homebuyers will remain fearful of buying a home until signs of a stronger economy emerge,” said James. “Now, positive employment figures should make the headlines soon which could boost confidence and help sell more houses in 2012.”

For information contact:
eugene james @ 404.370.9001 x 111
email ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

11/09/2011: Metrostudy to present at Certified Professional Home Builder of Georgia membership meeting

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market, Events | Posted on 11-08-2011 | Written by Eugene James

Eugene James will be providing a regional housing market update at the General Membership meeting for CPHB of Georgia
DATE: Wednesday, November 9, 2011
TIME: 11:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.
TOPIC: Regional Market Update

SPEAKER: Eugene James, Director of Metrostudy Atlanta
LOCATION: The Housing Center, 1484 Brockett Road, Tucker, GA 30084
COST: CPHB Principal Free, CPHB Employee and Applicant $15, CPHB Guest $15, HBA Member 30, Non-member $60
CREDITS: 2 CPHB, 2 GA Builder License
Contact Jerene L. Cruse 678-775-1462 jcruse@atlantahomebuilders.com

Atlanta housing market affected by area unemployment

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market | Posted on 08-08-2011 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Atlanta, GA– August 9, 2011) The Atlanta housing market is showing effects of local job losses, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Atlanta employment statistics through June 2011 show that the Atlanta region has experienced negative net jobs through 2Q 2011. The Georgia Department of Labor figures show that net jobs in Atlanta through June of 2011 decreased by 24,300 positions, more than any other MSA in the country. Atlanta has lost 192,200 jobs since June 2008. In June Atlanta’s unemployment rate ticked up to 10.5% while the National rate increased to 9.2% in June.

During 2Q11, Atlanta started 1,468 single family detached and townhomes, a 7.8% decrease from 2Q10. Also, 1,925 homes were closed, a 33.9% decrease from 2Q10 when the homebuyer tax credit boosted housing activity. “Although housing inventory is down 27% from one year ago the decline in demand has pushed the months supply to 11.9. Historically Atlanta had about a 9 months supply during normal market conditions” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region.

Overall, for the 12-month period ending in June, Atlanta housing starts were down 6.1% and home sales were down 35.2%.

However, a recovery is slowly starting to take place, particularly in North Atlanta where detached single family annual starts actually increased by 5%. In addition, both starts and closings increased from the prior quarter throughout Atlanta.

“The housing market is not expected to recover substantially until employment improves dramatically which should lift consumer confidence,” said James.

For information contact:
eugene james @ 404.370.9001 x 111
email ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

11/16/11: Metrostudy Market Update for the Atlanta HBA- Builder, Developer, Lender Council

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market, Events | Posted on 07-20-2011 | Written by Eugene James

Eugene will update attendees on changes within the Atlanta Real Estate Market

When: November 16 @ 8:00 A.M.

Where: Greater Atlanta HBA – 1484 Brockett Road, Tucker, GA

Non-HBA council members may call 770-938-9900 to inquire about attending, or call Eugene @ 404-370-9001 ex.111 for additional information.

Does the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index accurately reflect price appreciation/depreciation today?

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Atlanta Market, National Housing Market | Posted on 07-12-2011 | Written by Eugene James

First the good news: The April 2011 Case-Shiller Index (the most current index available) states that US home prices are on the rise and that it’s the first time in eight months since home prices have increased. Hooray! But what does this really mean? Let’s review this question along with a few other questions I get regarding this index.

What is the S&P Case-Shiller Index that I keep hearing about each month?

The Case-Shiller Index was designed to measure home price appreciation/depreciation by examining homes which have sold at least twice (called the repeat sales method). This will automatically exclude new home sales so we are only talking about re-sales. The index also includes properties that were taken back by a bank, then resold back into the market place (referred to as REO sales and foreclosures). An attempt is made to exclude homes that have undergone significant changes since the last time it sold. STOP right here! This is absolutely the right thing to do but how anyone can do this correctly for tons of data in 20 cities across the country every month is beyond me. You certainly cannot rely on government data (like tax assessor records) to tell you what has changed in the interior of a home, where most changes typically occur. Homes get remodeled all the time and foreclosures get vandalized all the time. Even local appraisers who go out and look at houses sometimes get this one wrong. Consider the following scenario which happened to me recently: An appraiser used a non-renovated dilapedated house that sold, as a comp for my subject property which I had renovated. To add insult to injury, the old tear down, which sold for pennies on the dollar, was later renovated and the picture that the appraiser used in the report looked great. (…and yes he kept it as one of his comps, even after I explained what had happened). Was this house used in the Case-Shiller Index as well? It sold at least twice…once at an inflated (mortgage fraud) price, later as an REO sale at pennies on the dollar.

Will the Index be influenced by foreclosures/REO sales?

Probably so. After all, it does include bank sales. Throughout the country foreclosures are running about 30% to 50% of all transactions, and that number excludes short sales. How many damaged REO sales are used in the index? The answer is…I don’t know. Each month the index figures are released to the general public, but not the actual sale transaction samples used to calculate the index.

Does the index accurately reflect the entire MSA?

Probably not. And how could it? For example, Atlanta is about 100 miles by 100 miles and covers 28 counties. How can one number accurately reflect an entire region this large where home prices vary from $10,000 to several million dollars?

Can you compare the Index to average or median selling prices?

Not really. I know a lot of people attempt to do this but don’t forget, the index was created using homes that have sold at least twice. The average or median selling price reflects all properties that have sold, regardless of when it may have last sold.

Conclusions

Stop looking at single metrics. The Case-Shiller Index can definately play a role in understanding “some” pricing trends. However, when trying to determine the real estate health of a city/town or even the Nation, today, more than ever before, you have to look at each market in very small /small bite size pieces. The first commandement of Real Estate 101 is location. Knowing the local dynamic and influence on a market is paramount and includes more components rather than one paired sale metric.

Note: For more information about the Case-Shiller Index please see their methodology at www.standardandpoors.com