(Atlanta, GA– May 11, 2012) The Atlanta housing market could see a rise in demand with positive employment figures on the way, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing intelligence and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

New jobs in Atlanta through March 2012 increased by 27,400 positions. “Forecasters are predicting net employment gains in Atlanta for 2012 above 30,000,” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region.

The Atlanta area saw a 38.4% increase in quarterly starts from last year and new home inventory has been depleted in various parts of Atlanta, down 21% year over year and down 83% from four years ago.

Housing inventory is down 16% in North Atlanta year over year, and South Atlanta’s inventory is down 33% year over year. “North Atlanta’s finished vacant housing units continue to decline to new lows (5.2 Months Supply in 1Q12 compared to 6.7 in 1Q11), while South Atlanta’s 6.2 Months Supply in 1Q12 is better than last year’s 7.6, but it’s still very high,” said James.

“Over a year ago, we said last quarter that despite record low mortgage rates, as long as employment numbers remain dreadful many potential homebuyers will remain fearful of buying a home until signs of a stronger economy emerge,” said James. “Now, positive employment figures should make the headlines soon which could boost confidence and help sell more houses in 2012.”

For information contact:
eugene james @ 404.370.9001 x 111
email ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

We had heard that Atlanta’s previously reported employment numbers may get revised upwards but WOW, what a revision! For most of 2011 the world was told that Atlanta was one of the worse MSA’s in the country when it came to job growth. In fact, it was reported that in 2Q11 and 3Q11 Atlanta was in dead last place for new job growth (March 2011 reported -25,900 jobs lost year over year, June 2011 reported-24,300 jobs lost year over year). The truth is, Atlanta actually created 41,300 net new jobs in 2Q11 and 26,200 jobs in 3Q11. We ended 2011 with 30,300 net new jobs year over year, a far cry from the previously reported figure of -600 jobs lost comparing December 2011 to one year earlier.

By the way, January 2012 figures show that Atlanta added 68,400 net new jobs year over year. That makes Atlanta the fourth best place in the country for job growth, only behind Dallas and Houston Texas, and the New York/New Jersey region.

So, how could the old figures have been so wrong?

Now that the Georgia Department of Labor has actual numbers based off filed business unemployment insurance tax records (which should be filed quarterly and annually, but not always) they revised the figures which previously had been based off a monthly 4% sampling survey of 250,000 businesses all over Georgia. Although most businesses comply with the survey request, it is not mandatory and sometimes incorrect figures are given. The revised figures show that the Atlanta region actually started to gain jobs every month as far back as August 2010!

I certainly am happy to see these revised figures, but I can’t stop wondering how much harm has already been done to the local economy due to the psychological impact that the negative employment headlines has caused. Surely less spending was done by all, as we prepared ourselves for worse case scenarios such as….maybe our job will be the next to get cut). After all, we have become a Nation who only has time to read the headlines.

Eugene James
Director, Metrostudy Atlanta Region
ejames@metrostudy.com

(Atlanta, GA– February 2, 2012) The Atlanta housing market continues to be negatively affected by job losses through the end of 2011, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing intelligence and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Net jobs in Atlanta through December 2011 decreased slightly by 600 positions, a huge improvement from just one month ago. “Forecasters are predicting small gains in
Atlanta employment in the first half of 2012,” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region.

The Atlanta area saw a 6.7% decrease in annual starts through 4Q11 and a 23.8% decrease in annual closings. “If we do see improvement in employment during 2012, this could help the new home market begin a recovery. The dismal Atlanta job picture throughout 2011 helped to suppress new home demand (closings).”

On a more positive note both quarterly starts and closings occurring in 4Q were slightly above last years numbers. We expect small gains to continue with starts and closings throughout 2012.

While home demand proved slow in 2011, closings still outpaced starts helping to bring down housing inventory from unhealthy levels. Housing inventory in Atlanta now stands at 6827, which equals 10.7 months of supply. “Well, Atlanta new home closings have been well ahead of housing starts for four solid years. Supply has declined by 83% since 2006,” said James. “At this point the new home market is probably losing market share to resale in part because there are so few new homes to choose from.”

“Despite record low mortgage rates, as long as employment numbers remain dreadful many potential homebuyers will remain fearful of buying a home until signs of a stronger economy emerge,” said James. “We anticipate the beginnings of a slow recovery, primarily in portions of North Atlanta while South Atlanta will continue to lag behind.”

For information contact:
Eugene James @ 404.370.9001 x 111
email: ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Atlanta, GA– November 7, 2011) The Atlanta housing market shows year over year increase in quarterly starts as of the end of 3Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing intelligence and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market. This makes the third consecutive quarter that starts have increased.

Many have asked “Why are starts increasing at all?” stated Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region. “Well, Atlanta new home closings have been well ahead of housing starts for four solid years. Contrary to what many may think, there is no overhang of new home inventory. Supply has declined by 82% since 2006,” said James at a recent housing update meeting. “At this point the new home market is probably losing market share to resale in part because there are so few new homes to choose from.”

The dismal Atlanta job picture has helped to suppress new home demand (closings). September 2011 employment show 25,900 fewer positions compared to one year ago, again more than any other MSA in the country. Government and Finance positions experienced the steepest declines while the Professional and Business Service sector along with Manufacturing positions experienced an increase in employment positions.

New home closings were down 20.5% in the third quarter compared to last year while resale and REO transactions were up by 11%. 41% of the resale transactions were distressed sales and yet the median transaction price increased by 9% year over year to $130,000.

“Despite record low mortgage rates, as long as employment numbers remain dreadful many potential homebuyers will remain fearful of buying a home until signs of a stronger economy emerge,” said James.

For information contact:
eugene james @ 404.370.9001 x 111
email ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Eugene James will be providing a regional housing market update at the General Membership meeting for CPHB of Georgia
DATE: Wednesday, November 9, 2011
TIME: 11:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.
TOPIC: Regional Market Update

SPEAKER: Eugene James, Director of Metrostudy Atlanta
LOCATION: The Housing Center, 1484 Brockett Road, Tucker, GA 30084
COST: CPHB Principal Free, CPHB Employee and Applicant $15, CPHB Guest $15, HBA Member 30, Non-member $60
CREDITS: 2 CPHB, 2 GA Builder License
Contact Jerene L. Cruse 678-775-1462 jcruse@atlantahomebuilders.com

(Atlanta, GA– August 9, 2011) The Atlanta housing market is showing effects of local job losses, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Atlanta employment statistics through June 2011 show that the Atlanta region has experienced negative net jobs through 2Q 2011. The Georgia Department of Labor figures show that net jobs in Atlanta through June of 2011 decreased by 24,300 positions, more than any other MSA in the country. Atlanta has lost 192,200 jobs since June 2008. In June Atlanta’s unemployment rate ticked up to 10.5% while the National rate increased to 9.2% in June.

During 2Q11, Atlanta started 1,468 single family detached and townhomes, a 7.8% decrease from 2Q10. Also, 1,925 homes were closed, a 33.9% decrease from 2Q10 when the homebuyer tax credit boosted housing activity. “Although housing inventory is down 27% from one year ago the decline in demand has pushed the months supply to 11.9. Historically Atlanta had about a 9 months supply during normal market conditions” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region.

Overall, for the 12-month period ending in June, Atlanta housing starts were down 6.1% and home sales were down 35.2%.

However, a recovery is slowly starting to take place, particularly in North Atlanta where detached single family annual starts actually increased by 5%. In addition, both starts and closings increased from the prior quarter throughout Atlanta.

“The housing market is not expected to recover substantially until employment improves dramatically which should lift consumer confidence,” said James.

For information contact:
eugene james @ 404.370.9001 x 111
email ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Eugene will update attendees on changes within the Atlanta Real Estate Market

When: November 16 @ 8:00 A.M.

Where: Greater Atlanta HBA – 1484 Brockett Road, Tucker, GA

Non-HBA council members may call 770-938-9900 to inquire about attending, or call Eugene @ 404-370-9001 ex.111 for additional information.

Metrostudy’s Eugene James will provide an Atlanta Housing Market Update at the Metrostudy 2Q11 Client Briefing – Tuesday August 9th, 2011 at the Greater Atlanta HBA Housing Center.

Barbeque and Caribbean food will be served along with Beer, Wine and Island Punch. Networking begins at 3:00 P.M. and the Briefing is from 3:30 P.M. to 4:30 P.M. Chat, Chew and have a Brew up until 7:00 P.M.
1484 Brockett Road Tucker, GA 30084
Clients may register by going to:

First the good news: The April 2011 Case-Shiller Index (the most current index available) states that US home prices are on the rise and that it’s the first time in eight months since home prices have increased. Hooray! But what does this really mean? Let’s review this question along with a few other questions I get regarding this index.

What is the S&P Case-Shiller Index that I keep hearing about each month?

The Case-Shiller Index was designed to measure home price appreciation/depreciation by examining homes which have sold at least twice (called the repeat sales method). This will automatically exclude new home sales so we are only talking about re-sales. The index also includes properties that were taken back by a bank, then resold back into the market place (referred to as REO sales and foreclosures). An attempt is made to exclude homes that have undergone significant changes since the last time it sold. STOP right here! This is absolutely the right thing to do but how anyone can do this correctly for tons of data in 20 cities across the country every month is beyond me. You certainly cannot rely on government data (like tax assessor records) to tell you what has changed in the interior of a home, where most changes typically occur. Homes get remodeled all the time and foreclosures get vandalized all the time. Even local appraisers who go out and look at houses sometimes get this one wrong. Consider the following scenario which happened to me recently: An appraiser used a non-renovated dilapedated house that sold, as a comp for my subject property which I had renovated. To add insult to injury, the old tear down, which sold for pennies on the dollar, was later renovated and the picture that the appraiser used in the report looked great. (…and yes he kept it as one of his comps, even after I explained what had happened). Was this house used in the Case-Shiller Index as well? It sold at least twice…once at an inflated (mortgage fraud) price, later as an REO sale at pennies on the dollar.

Will the Index be influenced by foreclosures/REO sales?

Probably so. After all, it does include bank sales. Throughout the country foreclosures are running about 30% to 50% of all transactions, and that number excludes short sales. How many damaged REO sales are used in the index? The answer is…I don’t know. Each month the index figures are released to the general public, but not the actual sale transaction samples used to calculate the index.

Does the index accurately reflect the entire MSA?

Probably not. And how could it? For example, Atlanta is about 100 miles by 100 miles and covers 28 counties. How can one number accurately reflect an entire region this large where home prices vary from $10,000 to several million dollars?

Can you compare the Index to average or median selling prices?

Not really. I know a lot of people attempt to do this but don’t forget, the index was created using homes that have sold at least twice. The average or median selling price reflects all properties that have sold, regardless of when it may have last sold.

Conclusions

Stop looking at single metrics. The Case-Shiller Index can definately play a role in understanding “some” pricing trends. However, when trying to determine the real estate health of a city/town or even the Nation, today, more than ever before, you have to look at each market in very small /small bite size pieces. The first commandement of Real Estate 101 is location. Knowing the local dynamic and influence on a market is paramount and includes more components rather than one paired sale metric.

Note: For more information about the Case-Shiller Index please see their methodology at www.standardandpoors.com

(Atlanta, GA– May 5, 2011) Segments of the Atlanta housing market shows signs of improvement during 1Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Georgia Department of Labor figures show that net jobs in Atlanta through March of 2011 decreased by 4,900 positions. Currently the region ranks nearly dead last in net job formations. Only Baltimore, Memphis and Sacramento lost more jobs than Atlanta when comparing annual job growth. “New jobs are going to be the key to a recovery for housing demand” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta Region. “The good news is that the unemployment rate declined to 9.8%. Yes, that’s still high but one year ago it was 10.1%. Back out the government job losses and private sector jobs actually increased by 3,400 positions, a small but steady increase from previous months. Local Economists continue to predict that the Atlanta MSA could see more than 30,000 new jobs by the end of 2011.

The Atlanta single family detached and townhome market combined had a decrease of 31% in quarterly starts and still managed to show an annual increase of 7%, thanks to a previously strong starts pace. Closings on the other hand were down considerably. Quarterly closings were down by 34% and annual closings down by 30%.

But there are plenty of positives in the regions new home housing market. For instance, closings have outpaced starts now for four years. This has caused housing inventory to be depleted by 79%. There are sub-markets in the region with months-supply as little as 4 months. A normal month’s supply of houses for Atlanta was about 9. Builders actually increased their prices over last year by 1%, the first price increase seen in years. The median new home price is now $245,100.

“With few new homes to choose from, home buyers may have no choice but to turn to used homes when looking to buy a house” said James.

For information contact:
eugene james @ 404.370.9001.ex 111
email ejames@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.