(Orlando, FL – February 3, 2012) The Orlando MSA’s lack of new home inventory and competitive pricing should continue the upward bounce in the new home market. This according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Through November 2011, Florida’s non-agricultural employment increased by 0.6%, slower than the nation’s annual job growth rate of 1.2%. “Most of Florida’s major metropolitan areas’ job rolls have risen slightly in the past year,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division, “yet the economy is not producing jobs fast enough to significantly reduce unemployment.

In the Orlando MSA, 1,122 single-family units were started in 4Q11, an increase of 71.0% compared to 4Q10’s 656 units. 1,083 single-family units were closed in 4Q11, 10.5% higher than the 980 closings in 4Q10. “The annual starts and closings rates remain relatively flat, but they should increase over the next couple of quarters as last year’s winter/spring activity was negatively affected by the loss of the government’s home buying tax incentive,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory equaled 3,086 units at the end of 4Q11, 8.8 months of supply. Housing inventory decreased by 2.1% compared to last year, and under construction housing inventory rose by 335 units to 1,366 units over the past year. “Housing inventory levels have been relatively stable for over a year in the Orlando MSA,” Crocco said.

“While central Florida’s economy is still barely growing, the area’s lack of new home inventory and competitive pricing should continue the upward bounce in the new home market. The activity in 4Q11 should continue the positive momentum going into the spring buying season.”

For information contact:
Anthony Crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email: acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

In normally functioning housing markets, changes to housing inventory levels can be good indicators of near term demand for housing.  In a normal market, as new home inventories begin to rise, construction of new homes should slow allowing builders to sell off inventory before restocking.  Housing resale markets (i.e. Used) are not as efficient, yet market forces push many potential sellers to the sideline in markets with too much inventory (which also stagnates pricing).  Once again though in the new construction market, as inventories wane, homebuilders must react to a new house sale contract by starting the home while resellers feel more comfortable coming to the market when inventory (i.e. listings) is diminished.

Most housing markets have been working off excess new housing inventory for four years or longer since the building boom of 2005-2007.  The bursting of the housing bubble, starting in 2007,  led to a dramatic pull back in new construction by builders.  This pull back was necessary in order to make meaningful reductions in exsiting “NEW” inventory levels that had grown dramatically.  That inventory decline was interrupted somewhat when the federal government stepped in with homebuyer incentives in late 2009 and into 2010.  Construction picked up slightly and there was flat or even slightly growing inventory.

Unfortunately, government’s induced housing demand was unnatural, and the facade of growing demand dropped immediately once the tax break program expired summer a year ago.  We believe that without another major economic complication, the 4^th quarter of 2010 is likely to be seen as the” bottom” of new home construction activity for this cycle.

Over the past year, inventories of new and resale homes have dropped in many markets.  Specifically in Florida, resale housing inventory levels have seen significant reduction over the past year falling by 52.1% in Orlando, 40.3% in Tampa, and 32.6% in Jacksonville.  New home inventory levels have been declining for over four years, yet we still are experiencing additional reductions year over year: 12.1% in Orlando, 4.7% in Tampa, and 11.7% in Jacksonville. 

It is true that most housing markets are not back normal, as REO and short sale activity continue their prominant role in the resale markets.  While this impacts the new home business, the declining quality of many of these resales and lack of new home inventory in most Florida markets, the demand that exists today will require builders to increase new production as there are no more unsold and unoccupied new units left to sell.

(Orlando, FL– November 1, 2011) While the Orlando MSA economy is not growing robustly, the area’s lack of housing inventory and competitive pricing should provide an upward bounce in new home activity going into 2012. This according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Through September 2011, Orlando’s non-agricultural employment increased by 1.2% over the past year, slightly better growth than Florida and the nation’s annual job rate for September of 1.1%. With the unemployment rate at 10.2% in Orlando, the economy has not been able to produce jobs at a rate capable of significantly reducing unemployment.

In the Orlando MSA, 1,163 single-family units were started in 3Q11, an increase of 4.8% compared to 3Q10. “This quarter’s increase in new home starts should provide positive momentum going into this winter/spring’s buying season,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division.

Total single-family inventory equaled 2,066 units at the end of 3Q11, 8.9 months of supply. Housing inventory decreased by 12.1% compared to last year, and under construction housing inventory decreased by 10% in that same time frame.

“While central Florida’s economy is still reeling from the sour real estate market and related job losses, the percentage of resale transactions that are arms length is growing slightly and overall housing inventory is down,” said Crocco. “The economy may not be fully cooperating, but an upward bounce in new home activity over the next few quarters is likely.”

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Metrostudy’s Central Florida Executive briefing for the third quarter of 2011 will be presented to Clients and invited guests at the HBA of Central Florida, located at 544 Mayo Ave., Maitland. The lunch meeting will cover national, regional, and local economic and housing trends. Please contact Anthony Crocco for information at acrocco@metrostudy.com.

(Orlando, FL– August 1, 2011) While we hope for continued local employment growth to spur housing activity, we must acknowledge the larger national economic issues that are impacting the consumer. This according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Orlando MSA, the number of jobs increased by 0.8%, or 8,000 over the 12 months through June 2011, to 1,018,400. “The area’s economy has stabilized but is not producing jobs at a rate capable of significantly reducing the unemployment rate,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division.

996 single-family units were started in 2Q11 in the Orlando MSA. This represents a decrease of 9.7% compared to 2Q10. Also decreasing was the annual starts rate, whose 3,698 units is a 14.3% drop compared to last year. “Annual starts will probably decline until 4Q11, which was extremely slow last year after the conclusion of the home buyer tax incentives,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory equaled 2,971 units at the end of 2Q11, 8.0 months of supply. Housing inventory decreased by 20.9% compared to last year. Under construction housing inventory has declined by 114 units to 1,170. “Housing inventories continue to decline slowly in the Orlando MSA,” said Crocco, “although the ratio of finished homes to overall inventory is still twice as high as a normalized vacant market would report.”

“There is some good news, however: Orlando area home prices remain a bargain, enticing investors to continue purchasing homes, thereby reducing inventory. Eventually, stable pricing will enhance consumer sentiment locally and lead to increasing sales,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Orlando, FL– May 1, 2011) The Orlando MSA job market is benefiting from the theme park industry and may cause more robust job formations across other sectors, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Leisure and Hospitality sector led job formations with over 15,000 jobs added in the past 12 months, a growth rate of over 8%. In the Orlando MSA, the employed population increased by an estimated 20,400 over the 12 months through March 2011, growing by just over 2.0% to 1,019,000.

“The economy is starting to slowly produce jobs and fewer people are looking for work, thereby reducing unemployment rates,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division.

In the Orlando MSA, 922 single-family units were started in 1Q2011. This represents a decrease of 28.4% compared to the starts rate of 1,288 in 1Q2010.

Total single-family inventory (comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units, and models) equaled 3,094 units at the end of 1Q2011, 8.1 months of supply. Housing inventory decreased by 19.8% compared to last year.

“Job formations in Education and Health services should continue as the entities in Lake Nona’s medical city become operational,” said Crocco. “Despite the fact that the housing markets are fighting to replace demand that was pushed forward due to last year’s home buying incentives, job formations have contributed to a decent quarter of activity in Orlando.”

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Orlando, FL– February 1, 2011) The Orlando job market is faring better than any other large market in the state, but the new housing market is struggling with the loss of stimulus dollars, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Orlando MSA, the number of jobs increased by 11,600 over the 12 months through November 2010, increasing by 1.2% to 1,013,500. “The economy has stabilized but is not producing jobs at a rate capable of reducing the unemployment rate,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division.

In the Orlando MSA, the annual starts rate of 4,131 units has increased by 16.2% over the past year, while the 629 single-family units started in 4Q10 is a 27.4% decrease compared to last year’s quarterly starts.

“Given that activity was spurred last winter and spring by the government’s home buying incentives, it is likely the annual starts and closing rates will continue to decline slightly for the next couple of quarters,” said Crocco.

Housing inventory decreased by 13.7% compared to last year, and under construction housing inventory has declined by 185 units over the past year to 1,026.

“Despite the comparatively good standing of the Orlando area job market (due to a new attraction featuring a certain boy wizard), the MSA’s new housing market will continue to decline in the next couple of quarters,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

It’s the end of the year and time for 2011 prognostication, but first rationalization.  Forecasting is an inexact science at best which is especially true at inflection points in the economy.  Given the duration of the current downturn, moderating November election results, mixed economic trends, and a lack of consensus about the economy’s direction over the next year among national economists, it is possible, even likely, that we are at or near an inflection point.

Relative to forecasting, most important to our Client base is the demand for new homes.   To forecast housing activity in 2011, we should first review recent trends among some key indicators.  

Employment, consumer confidence, and housing supply are three of the most important considerations when evaluating the demand for new housing in a market.  We have excluded mortgage financing from consideration which, while it is extremely important, is not an economic factor producing housing demand, but rather a constraining factor.

Employment is the most important driver of housing demand and is improving.   From late 2008 until late 2009, the economy faltered with millions of jobs lost nationwide and with almost 70,000 jobs lost in Orlando (7% of the workforce).  Over the past year, through November 2010, Orlando area employment is up over 1% and should continue to grow this year. 

Consumer sentiment nationally and in Florida remains at depression era levels, and has been so for longer than Read the rest of this entry »

(Orlando, FL– November 1, 2010) The Orlando area economy is improving very
slowly, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Orlando MSA, the number of jobs was virtually flat over the 12 months through August 2010, increasing less than 0.05%. “While we don’t anticipate a short term or dramatic change to the recent flat job formations, the coming elections could set the stage for a change in business and consumer sentiment,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division.

New housing activity has remained stable in a quarter that could have been down, and was down in many markets throughout the country. Housing resales remain brisk, but with most transactions being short sales or foreclosures.

In the Orlando market, 1,097 single-family units were started in the third quarter of 2010, an increase of 2.8%. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,376 units, which is 16.4% higher than the 1,182 closings that occurred in the same quarter last year.

The third quarter starts rate was up from last quarter and last year. “This was a surprise given the production momentum created by the original tax incentive last fall, which should have run out of steam with last quarter’s starts,” said Crocco.

Housing inventory levels have improved but too many finished vacant units remain. The vacant developed lot ratio of supply based on annual starts is declining, as starts levels have stabilized and the number of vacant developed lots continues to drop.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Orlando, FL– August 1, 2010) Housing data shows that the Orlando area economy has stabilized, but is improving very slowly, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction  in the U.S. Housing market.

Total employment is almost flat from a year ago and is starting to show small month over month increases. “Job formations are needed to drive housing demand,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division. “It appears that the unemployment rate has stabilized, but the rate does not include the population that has quit looking for work, which is growing nationally.” In the Orlando MSA, the number of jobs decreased (13,500) over the 12 months through May 2010, declining by 1.3% to 1,003,600. Read the rest of this entry »