(Jacksonville, FL – February 3, 2012) Jacksonville’s steady employment growth and the area’s lack of new home inventory signals an upward bounce in the housing market this coming year. This according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 8,300 jobs since November 2010, an increase of 1.4%. “This is higher than Florida’s job growth rate (.6%) or the U.S. rate (1.2%), but continues a relatively flat economic trajectory,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville division. “It is likely both businesses and consumers will remain tight fisted until late this year due to the increased political rhetoric.”

613 single-family units were started in 4Q11 in the Jacksonville MSA, an increase of 19.3% compared to the 514 units in 4Q10. Single-family closings in 4Q11 totaled 688 units, 3.3% higher than 4Q10’s 666 closings. “We expect the annual rate to grow over the coming quarters as we replace last year’s weak winter/spring activity with better numbers this year,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory equaled 1,812 units at the end of 4Q11, 7.9 months of supply. Housing inventory decreased by 7.1% compared to last year. In 4Q11, the ratio of homes to overall inventory increased. “We believe this is a one or two quarter phenomena as builders are gearing up for spring sales,” Crocco said.

“The Jacksonville area economy is improving, having formed 8,000 jobs since November 2010. The new home market has stabilized and the area’s strong starts growth over the past few quarters should provide momentum going into this spring’s buying season. We anticipate slow but steady growth in the coming quarters.”

For information contact:
Anthony Crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email: acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

In normally functioning housing markets, changes to housing inventory levels can be good indicators of near term demand for housing.  In a normal market, as new home inventories begin to rise, construction of new homes should slow allowing builders to sell off inventory before restocking.  Housing resale markets (i.e. Used) are not as efficient, yet market forces push many potential sellers to the sideline in markets with too much inventory (which also stagnates pricing).  Once again though in the new construction market, as inventories wane, homebuilders must react to a new house sale contract by starting the home while resellers feel more comfortable coming to the market when inventory (i.e. listings) is diminished.

Most housing markets have been working off excess new housing inventory for four years or longer since the building boom of 2005-2007.  The bursting of the housing bubble, starting in 2007,  led to a dramatic pull back in new construction by builders.  This pull back was necessary in order to make meaningful reductions in exsiting “NEW” inventory levels that had grown dramatically.  That inventory decline was interrupted somewhat when the federal government stepped in with homebuyer incentives in late 2009 and into 2010.  Construction picked up slightly and there was flat or even slightly growing inventory.

Unfortunately, government’s induced housing demand was unnatural, and the facade of growing demand dropped immediately once the tax break program expired summer a year ago.  We believe that without another major economic complication, the 4^th quarter of 2010 is likely to be seen as the” bottom” of new home construction activity for this cycle.

Over the past year, inventories of new and resale homes have dropped in many markets.  Specifically in Florida, resale housing inventory levels have seen significant reduction over the past year falling by 52.1% in Orlando, 40.3% in Tampa, and 32.6% in Jacksonville.  New home inventory levels have been declining for over four years, yet we still are experiencing additional reductions year over year: 12.1% in Orlando, 4.7% in Tampa, and 11.7% in Jacksonville. 

It is true that most housing markets are not back normal, as REO and short sale activity continue their prominant role in the resale markets.  While this impacts the new home business, the declining quality of many of these resales and lack of new home inventory in most Florida markets, the demand that exists today will require builders to increase new production as there are no more unsold and unoccupied new units left to sell.

(Jacksonville, FL– November 1, 2011) The Jacksonville economy is improving more quickly than many of its Florida counterparts, and strong housing starts growth and lack of resale and new home inventory signal an upward bounce. This according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 4,400 jobs over the 12 months through September 2011, representing an increase of 0.8%. Yet with the unemployment rate at 10.0% in Jacksonville, the economy has not been able to produce jobs at a rate capable of significantly reducing unemployment.

850 single-family units were started in 3Q11 in the Jacksonville MSA, an increase of 14.6% compared to the 742 units in 3Q10. Single-family closings in 3Q11 totaled 790 units, 14.3% lower than 3Q10’s 928 closings. “The increases in starts should keep move-in paces strong for the next few quarters, and should push annual closing rates upward,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville division.

Total single-family inventory equaled 1,864 units at the end of 3Q11, 8.2 months of supply. Housing inventory decreased by 12.6% compared to last year, primarily due to fewer finished and vacant homes, as under construction housing inventory decreased by only 0.3% in that same time frame.

“The Jacksonville area economy is slowly improving, arms length resale transactions are growing slightly, and for sale housing inventory is down,” said Crocco. “Even with distressed resales, Jacksonville’s lack of new and resale inventory and competitive pricing should provide an upward bounce in new home activity going into 2012.”

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Metrostudy’s Jacksonville Executive briefing for the third quarter of 2011 will be presented to Clients and invited guests at the University Center at the University of North Florida. The lunch meeting will cover national, regional, and local economic and housing trends. Please contact Anthony Crocco for information at acrocco@metrostudy.com.

(Jacksonville, FL– August 1, 2011) After lagging behind most other large Florida MSAs, Jacksonville’s second quarter of 2011 rebounded slightly, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the total number of filled jobs has increased by 5,300 jobs over the 12 months through June 2011, a growth rate of 0.9%. “Job numbers were hurt by the loss of 1,000+ government jobs over the past year, which negated sector gains in Professional and Business, Leisure and Hospitality, and Education and Health,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville division.

636 single-family units were started in 2Q11 in the Jacksonville MSA, a decrease of 23.0% compared to the 826 units in 2Q10. Single-family closings in 2Q11 totaled 610 units, 28.3% lower than 2Q10’s 851 closings. “Last year’s rate was impacted by consumers taking advantage of the government home buyer tax incentive,” said Crocco. “Annual starts and closing rates will probably decline until 4Q11.”

Total single-family inventory equaled 1,853 units on the ground at the end of 2Q11, a 7.8 months supply. Overall, housing inventories decreased by 20.9% compared to 2Q10. Under construction inventory declined by 231 units to 798, a decrease of 22.4%. “Jacksonville housing inventory levels continue to improve and are in better position than most MSAs, but too many finished vacant units remain,” said Crocco.

“The continued reduction in housing inventories will help the Jacksonville housing market by stabilizing pricing. Eventually, stable pricing will enhance consumer sentiment locally and lead to increasing sales,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Jacksonville, FL– May 1, 2011) The Jacksonville job market is rebounding slowly, a concerning fact as this is a market that relies on job growth to drive demand for housing, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 1,000 jobs ove rthe 12 months through March 2011, equaling a gain of 0.2%.

“Problems persist as the consumer remains reticent, hiring is still slow, and foreclosures continue to impact housing,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville division.

In the Jacksonville Market, 516 single-family units were started in 1Q2011, a decrease of 45.4% compared to 1Q2010. The annual starts rate compared to last year decreased by 22.0% to 2,576 annual starts, and single-family quarterly closings totaled 667 units in 1Q2011, down 23.5% from the 872 closings in 1Q2010.

“With the slow housing starts rates over the past two quarters, it is likely Jacksonville has hit the bottom of new home construction for this cycle,” said Crocco. “But the Jacksonville market will continue to struggle until a significant number of job formations return.”

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Jacksonville, FL– February 1, 2011) Housing data shows that the Jacksonville area economy is rebounding slowly and is in need of employment growth, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has decreased by (1,600) jobs over the 12 months through November 2010, equaling a loss rate of 0.3%. “The economy has stabilized, but is not producing jobs at a rate capable of reducing the unemployment rate,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville division.

In the Jacksonville Market, 507 single-family units were started in 4Q10. This represents a decrease of 30.2% compared to last year’s rate of 726 units. The annual starts rate compared to last year decreased by 2.2% to 2,871 annual starts, and the single-family quarterly closings totaled 669 units, which is 26.2% lower than the 907 closings in the same quarter last year.

“Given that activity was spurred last winter and spring by the government’s home buying incentives, it is likely the annual starts and closing rates will continue to decline slightly for the next couple of quarters,” said Crocco.

Compared to last year, overall housing inventories decreased by 16.9%, and under construction inventory declined by 328 units to 664, a decrease of 33.1%.

“Job formations are the driver in the Jacksonville MSA’s demand for housing and, like much of Florida, the economy is still struggling to recover from job losses in construction and related industries since the end of the boom,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Jacksonville, FL– November 1, 2010) The Jacksonville area economy is improving very slowly, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has decreased by 800 jobs over the 12 months through August 2010, equaling a loss rate of 0.1%. “While we don’t anticipate a short term or dramatic change to the recent flat job formations, the coming elections could set the stage for a change in business and consumer sentiment.” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Central Florida division.

New housing activity has remained stable in a quarter that could have been down, and was down in many markets throughout the country. Housing resales remain brisk, but with most transactions being short sales or foreclosures.

In the Jacksonville Market, 689 single-family units were started in the third quarter of 2010. This represents a decrease of 18.7% compared to last year’s rate of 847 units. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 924 units, which is 4.3% higher than the 886 closings in the same quarter last year.

The quarterly starts rate was down significantly from last year but only slightly from last quarter. “Last year’s rate was impacted by consumers taking advantage of the original government home buyer tax incentive,” said Crocco. The annual starts rate continues on a stable, but low level.

Housing inventory levels continue to improve and are in a better position than most MSAs, but too many finished vacant units remain. The vacant developed lot ratio of supply based on annual starts is declining, as starts levels have stabilized and the number of vacant developed lots continues to decline.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Jacksonville, FL– August 1, 2010) Housing data shows that the Jacksonville area economy has stabilized, but is improving very slowly, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that conducts a count of 100 percent of all new housing units in subdivisions within the market area each quarter.

Total employment is almost flat from a year ago and is starting to show small month over month increases. “Job formations are needed to drive housing demand,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville division. “It appears that the unemployment rate has stabilized, but the rate does not include the population that has quit looking for work, which is growing nationally.” In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs decreased by 5,100 jobs over the 12 months through May 2010, declining by 0.9%.

Housing resales continue at a high rate with stabilized values since winter. Also, the annual new home construction pace is up 13% compared to last year. “Still, resales activity is led by bank owned foreclosures or short sales and increases in new housing starts over the past few quarters have been influenced by government tax incentives,” said Crocco. “New home starts levels will likely slow for the next couple of quarters as the incentives pushed forward some new home demand. Resale activity rates should continue as investors won’t be impacted as much as the new home market by the loss of homebuyer tax incentives.”

In the Jacksonville market, 725 single family units were started during 2Q10, an increase of 1.5% compared to last year’s rate of 714 units. Sales have slowed since April 30, the deadline for the tax incentive, which Metrostudy expects will reduce the demand for new starts next quarter. Closings totaled 776 units, which is 10.9% lower than 2Q09. “We expect strong move-ins during 3Q10 with the final wave of buyers from the tax incentive closing by September 30,” said Crocco.

Single Family inventory of homes is at 2,241 units, a 7.8 month supply, down 8.6% from 2Q09. Metrostudy considers 6-7 months of supply healthy. Finished vacant units account for nearly 60% of all housing inventory, when 25-30% is considered healthy.

“Buyers will want to see evidence of a sustained recovery (including job growth) before confidence returns and they are willing to invest in a real estate market,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

(Jacksonville, FL — May 7, 2010) Housing inventory increased last quarter for the first time in four years in the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties), as new construction starts outpaced move-ins, according to Metrostudy’s quarterly survey.

In the first quarter of 2010, 932 single-family units were started. This represents an increase of 54.0% compared to last year’s rate of 605 units.

“The quarterly starts rate increased significantly from last year and last quarter, and is the highest total since the summer of 2008,” said Anthony Crocco, Metrostudy’s director for the Jacksonville division. “Quarterly starts exceeded closings for the first time in almost 4 years. Some of the first quarter’s construction activity is likely due to an increase in production builder spec homes, ready to close by the end of June for the expiration of the government’s home buying tax incentive, or into the summer.”

The annual starts rate compared to last year decreased by 15.0%to 3,175 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 846 units, which is 18.1%lower than the 1,033 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 3,491units, which is 26.7% below the rate of 4,760 units per year recorded a year ago.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,292 units on the ground at the end of the first quarter, a 7.9 months supply. Overall, housing inventories decreased by 12.1% compared to last year.

“Finished vacant housing inventory continued to decline,” said Crocco. “The decline in the number of models in the MSA has slowed significantly, signaling new retail offerings being added and the slowing sale of model inventory.  Lot inventories are declining and should continue to decline at a steeper pace over the next few quarters.”

Local market conditions have changed little over the past few quarters. Unemployment continues to grow, but has seemingly bottomed. New and resale pricing has flattened some and transaction paces are good, but tax incentives are expiring soon, said Crocco.

“The new home market’s activity rates have stabilized and contributed to low levels of inventory,” said Crocco.“It is likely a sustained recovery will start with job formations.  While job losses have slowed, a significant pickup in hiring is not occurring, or expected in the short term.”

Florida’s economy is more distressed than the nation and in February 2010, the unemployment rate for the state was a near-record 12.2%. In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has decreased by 15,500 jobs over the 12 months through February 2010, equaling a loss rate of 2.6%.

“For housing, distressed resales still drive the market and will continue to pressure most housing prices lower in the short and mid- terms,” said Crocco. “While new housing sales rates have improved over the past few quarters, government tax incentives cause us to question the depth of buyers in the market.  We will need to see improvement in a weak job market and consumer confidence to forecast a continuation of the growth in new housing starts beyond the next quarter.”