Market Slowing as Higher Prices Constrain Demand

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 08-14-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

August 2014: Metrostudy today released results of its 2Q14 survey of the Jacksonville housing market, which showed slowing new home construction  since the second half of 2013.  In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,274 single-family units were started in 2Q14, down 11.8% from 2Q13’s rate of 1,444 units. Despite this drop compared to last year’s second quarter, the annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 14.7% to 5,376 annual starts.

Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,342 units, 6.4% higher than the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 5,217 units, 29.0% above the rate recorded a year ago.  Quarterly closings in the Jacksonville market continued the upward trend, although new construction activity slowed slightly from the first quarter. The flat trend in recent quarters’ starts rate was echoed by many of the major markets in the southeast United States. With the growth in retail home pricing over the past year and the lowering of FHA lending limits, we expect uneven growth in new home constrution over the next few quarters.

“Slowing housing growth can reflect weakness in demand, a lack of supply, or a bit of both,” says Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville/Orlando region.  “At this point in the cycle we believe it is both. Quarterly lot deliveries are still running behind quarterly new home construction rates, meaning we are burning thru lots much faster than we are delivering them.”

Weakness in demand is primarily due to pricing. Strong new home construction activity for the past 15-18 months has spurred increases in retail pricing, often at a rate near the peak of the boom. Pricing has also been impacted by increasing lot costs, for both progressive lot takedowns and replacement projects.  New home pricing continues to increase in most locations. As a result, the higher price bands are starting to see strong growth. Builders are generally holding the line on prices, although base price increases seem to be slowing and a few more concessions are being offered.

Annual Starts by Price Range

Jax annual starts by price range

 

“This quarters activity continued the trend of builders abandoning the lower-priced market, as starts over the past year for units priced under $150k declined 35% from the year ending 2Q13,” said Crocco.  “We are seeing a burst of activity at the higher end segment, with annual starts for units priced over $400k up 114% from 2Q13.  The implications of this for the future of the market are significant.”

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,698 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 6.2 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 6.1% compared to last year.

This quarter, 806 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 47.6% increase from 546 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 15,430 lots, a decrease of 11.3% compared to 17,403 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 34.4 months of supply, a decrease of 10.1 months from last year.

Overall housing inventory levels have dropped slightly over the past two quarters. However, the level of finished inventory has grown slightly. With starts having slowed, we do not expect the finished supply to increase significantly.

Vacant lot inventories have been generally declining, and the increase in construction starts has caused the ratio of months of supply to drop below 3 years. However, there are an increasing number of lots being delivered to the market and in the development process, so we expect lot inventory ratios to continue to flatten.

The following table identifies the top ten communities as     defined by annual construction starts.

Community Annual Starts

Nocatee (Duval) …………………………850

Durbin Crossing (St. Johns) …………364

OakLeaf Plantation (Clay) ……………248

Aberdeen (St. Johns)…………………..143

Eagle Landing (Clay) …………………..129

Murabella (St. Johns) ……………………97

Bartram Park (Duval) ……………………97

Two Creeks (Clay) ………………………..88

World Golf Village (St. Johns) ………..86

Victoria Preserve (Duval) ………………83

Like any market, buyers must get used to the sticker shock of rapidly escalated prices. To continue to increase construction activity builders must help the consumer accept the pricing growth, and many builders are through the use of incentives.

For information contact: Anthony Crocco @ 919- 314-0420
Email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts

 

 

 

 

Harry Potter Casts a Spell on Florida’s Economy

Posted in Central Florida Market, In The News, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

anthony cJune 5 (Bloomberg) –Florida’s employment picture has improved faster than any other state since the financial crisis — and some Floridians says that’s because Harry Potter has been working his wizardry in their state.

Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports from Orlando.

See full interview here

Metrostudy Regional Director – Anthony Crocco

Jacksonville Housing Market Metrostudy 1Q14 Survey Results: Jacksonville Housing Market Starts 2014 Strong; Employment Growth will Fuel Growth for the Next Few Quarters

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 8, 2014: Metrostudy today released its 1Q14 survey of housing activity in the Jacksonville market – which includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and St Johns counties. Starts and closings in the Jacksonville region were up significantly in the first quarter from last quarter and from a year ago. In the Jacksonville market 1,552 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2014, an increase of 27.7% from 1Q13. The annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 32.6% to 5,577 annual starts.

Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,510 units, 51.2% higher than the 999 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 5,179 units, which is 41.3% above the rate of 3,666 units per year recorded a year ago.

“The Jacksonville area’s new housing market demonstrated strong growth in the first quarter of 2014, after taking a slight breather in the 4th quarter of 2013, said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville/Orlando region. “The fourth quarter slowdown was due more to seasonality than market conditions, and we expect construction activity and employment to continue to grow thru the next two quarters.”

This quarter, 382 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 61.4% decline from 990 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 15,407 lots, a decrease of 17.3% compared to 18,636 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 33.2 months of supply, a decrease of 20.0 months from last year.

The top three market areas and sub-markets based on annual starts are shown below.

Market Area Ann Starts (% Chg)

St. John……………………. 2,739(+29.1%)

Duval………………………….1,646 (+39.8%)

Clay ………………………………789 (+20.6%)

Sub-Market Annual Starts (% Chg)

St. Aug/S. St. Johns………..767 (+22.1%)

210 Corridor………………… 734 (+34.4%)

Orange Park…………………..638 (+30.5%)

Resale closings were down 1.8% YOY in March, while inventory levels are down 2.6%. The median sales price for resale homes is up 12.4% from March 2013, which is expected to help push new home pricing up over the next year.

“With continued strong closing activity, the new home market looks to be in an excellent position to continue strong growth thru this buying season,” says Crocco. “With pricing growth occurring in the best submarkets, we would expect growth to expand into the further out submarkets over the coming quarters, although that has not really begun in Jacksonville like it has in markets further south.”

For information contact: anthony crocco @ 407-875-9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Jacksonville new housing growth continues, but at a slower pace

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 02-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Jacksonville, FL – February 20, 2014) The Jacksonville area new housing market demonstrated slow growth in the second half of 2013; however, most builders have significant backlogs of sold but unbuilt homes. In addition, recent increases in employment numbers over the past few months should help spur housing growth this spring and summer. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,088 single-family units were started in 4Q13. This represents an increase of 10.9% compared to the quarterly starts rate of 981 units in 4Q12. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,148 units, which is 30.5% higher than the 880 closings in the same quarter last year. “Jacksonville’s quarterly starts and closing rates for the fourth quarter of 2013 fell from last quarter, but are still above 2012’s fourth quarter rate. “The slowdown this quarter can be attributed in large part to seasonality, as most builders are reporting significant sales backlogs,” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Jacksonville Market.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units, and models, equaled 2,675 units at the end of 4Q13, representing 7.0 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 24.6% year-over year. Under-construction inventory rose by 389 units over the last year to 1,681, a 30.1% increase. Finished-vacant inventory rose by 20.1%, from 667 units at the end of 4Q12 to 801 at the end of 4Q13. Model home inventory is up 5 units year over year to 193 total models. Builders in this market are closing 23.7 homes per year per model, compared to 18.4 last year. “Overall housing inventory levels remained flat this quarter, after having risen steadily for five or six quarters. However, the distribution of inventory has improved, with less than 1/3 of inventory finished and vacant today, versus over 50% two years ago,” said Crocco.

This quarter, 555 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 52.9% increase from the 363 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 16,747 lots, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 19,042 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 39.3 months-of-supply, a decrease of 21.4 months from last year.

“We expect continued strong starts and closing activity over the next few quarters, with increases in interest rates and base pricing tempering growth. Lot prices will continue to rise in most submarkets adding to the headwinds that will slow the market’s activity growth rate compared to the past year or two,” said Crocco.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Jacksonville housing market maintains strength in the third quarter

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 11-13-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

Jacksonville, FL – November 13, 2013) The Jacksonville area new housing market demonstrated strong growth again in the third quarter of 2013, despite slowing job formations. Much of this is due to the tightening of resale and new home housing supply. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,388 single-family units were started in 3Q13. This represents an increase of 34.2% compared to last year’s rate of 1,034 units. The current annual starts rate of 4,948 is up 45.1% year-over-year. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,193 units, which is 34.0% higher than the 890 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 4,290 units, which is 31.8% above the rate of 3,256 units per year recorded a year ago. “Jacksonville’s quarterly starts and closing rates for the third quarter of 2013 fell slightly from second quarter but are well above last year’s third quarter rates,” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Jacksonville Market.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units, and models, equaled 2,697 units at the end of the third quarter, for 7.5 months of supply. Overall, total inventory rose 32.3% versus one year ago. Compared to last year, under construction inventory rose 52.3%, from 622 units to 1,811. Finished vacant inventory increased by 4.4% from 654 units last year to 683 this year. Model home inventory is up 7 units from last year to 203 total models. Builders in this market are closing 21.1 homes per year per model compared to 16.6 last year.

This quarter, 391 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 5.1% increase from 372 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 17,448 lots, a decrease of 12.6% from the 19,954 lots a year ago. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 42.3 months-of-supply, down from 70.2 months-of-supply a year ago. The total housing inventory level has grown over the past few quarters, almost entirely in the form of under-construction inventory. Therefore, the distribution of inventory has shrunk for finished homes, with less than 30% of inventory finished and vacant. “We believe that most of the under construction inventory has been sold and do not expect finished housing supply to increase significantly in the short term. The vacant developed lot months of supply ratio should continue to decline nicely in the short term,” said Crocco.

“Our conclusions have been relatively consistent the past few quarters. We expect to see a continued slight to moderate upward bounce in the Jacksonville new home market in the near term. Because of supply shortages, the better submarkets should experience well above market rate activity and pricing growth over that same period,” said Crocco.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Jacksonville housing market maintains growth in the second quarter of 2013

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 09-09-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Jacksonville, FL –September 9, 2013) While new housing activity has been heating up in many Florida markets for the past two years, Jacksonville’s housing market had slow growth or was flat until the past couple of quarters. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,368 single-family units were started in 2Q13. This represents an increase of 44.2% compared to last year’s rate of 949 units. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,229 units which is 37.3% higher than the 895 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 3,968 units, which is 26.6% above the rate of 3,135 units per year recorded a year ago. “Since builders have a significant backlog of new sale contracts, we expect continued growth in starts and closings over the next few quarters, at least,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,492 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 7.5 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 30.3% compared to last year. Compared to last year, under construction inventory rose 43.9%, or 454 units to 1,488. Finished vacant inventory increased by 16.6% from 686 units last year to 800 this year. Model home inventory is up 12 units from last year to 204 total models. Builders in this market are closing 19.5 homes per year per model compared to 16.3 last year. “Increases in housing inventory are mostly in the under construction category, indicating strong end user demand. We anticipate low finished inventory levels in the near term given the sales contract backlogs at most builders,” said Crocco.

This quarter, 137 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 54.9% decline from 304 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 18,052 lots, a decrease of 12.8% compared to 20,704 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 47.6 months of supply, a decrease of 29.7 months from last year. “Lot development is picking up in the “A” and “B” locations and we anticipate increased development activity in the coming quarters. The vacant developed lot ratio will continue to decline nicely and now shows under 4 years supply overall, down from almost 8 years of lot inventory, just a year ago,” said Crocco.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 15,500 jobs over the 12 months through May 2013, representing an increase of 2.6%. The Professional & Business Services sector (8,600 or 9.4%), Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (3,800 or 3%), Leisure & Hospitality (2,400 or 6.9%), Education & Health (2,500 or 3.4%), and Construction (1,600 or 5.9%) sectors recorded significant gains over the past year. “None of the sectors exhibited a decline or addition of 1,000 jobs or more over the past year,” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Jacksonville Market.

“Our forecast is for strong activity through year end, at least, with builders working to hang on to margins in an environment of cost increases. At the same time, builders are looking hard at lot and land positions to secure the future lots needed to grow their respective businesses,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

The Jacksonville housing market sets up for growth in 2013

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 05-15-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Jacksonville, FL –May 15, 2013) As the National economy strengthens Jacksonville’s housing markets expects to grow in 2013. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The most significant news recently for the Jacksonville market was the employment estimate revision. Before the revisions, Jacksonville’s fall and winter employment market was estimated to be growing at less than 1%. With the revisions, the employed workforce was revised to a growth rate between 2% and 3% from the fall thru Feb. “This is a huge difference, with over 10,000 added jobs originally uncounted, and is especially important since Jacksonville’s housing market relies on jobs to grow (unlike South Florida with retirees and international buyers/investors),” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Orlando and Jacksonville Markets. In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 17,900 jobs over the 12 months through February 2013, representing an increase of 3.0%.

In the Jacksonville Market, 1,131 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2013. This represents an increase of 44.3% compared to last year’s rate of 784 units. Figure 4 notes the annual starts and closings rates while the quarterly rate is shown graphically in Figure 5. The annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 39.2% to 4,056 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 975 units which is 25.5% higher than the 777 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate totaled 3,609 units, which is 26.5% above the rate of 2,853 units per year recorded a year ago. “Both quarterly starts and closing rates for the first quarter of 2013 were well above last year’s first quarter rates and grew nicely from fourth quarter. Since builders have a significant backlog of new sale contracts, we expect continued growth in starts and closings over the next two quarters, at least,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,295 units on the ground at the end of the first quarter, a 7.6 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 24.2% compared to last year. Compared to last year, under construction inventory rose 53.4%, or 460 units to 1,322. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 1.5% from 784 units last year to 772 this year. Model home inventory is down 1 unit from last year to 201 total models. “Builders in this market are closing 18.0 homes per year per model compared to 14.1 last year,” said Crocco.

This quarter, 782 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 159.8% increase from 301 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 19,354 lots, a decrease of 10.8% compared to 21,697 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 57.3 months of supply, a decrease of 32.1 months from last year. “Increases in housing inventory are mostly in under construction units, indicating strong end user demand. We anticipate low finished inventory levels in the near term, given the backlog of contracts for most builders,” said Crocco.

“The new home market is growing throughout Jacksonville, with the “A” locations leading the way in absorption and pricing growth. While demand is increasing in weaker locations, pricing power is weak in all but the “A” locations. We expect slower growth in activity but accelerating pricing increases in the best locations, at least thru the summer, as builders work thru sales backlogs and try to maintain profitability with rising costs,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

Despite slow job growth the Jacksonville market continues to grow in 4Q12

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 02-05-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Jacksonville, FL – February 5, 2012) Little has changed since last quarter relative to Jacksonville’s economic and housing market trends. Job growth has remained around 1% for most of the past 18 months, although there is some speculation that job growth estimates for 2012 will be revised higher when benchmarked this spring.  Housing construction remains robust and should accelerate over the next few quarters. This according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 5,700 jobs over the 12 months through November 2012, representing an increase of 1.0%. Unemployment as measured by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. “The unemployment rate is dropping in Jacksonville and Florida, but much of the reduction is due to fewer people actively looking for work,” said Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville division. Jacksonville’s unemployment rate is 7.6%

In the Jacksonville Market, 919 single-family units were started in 4Q12. This represents an increase of 46.6% compared to last year’s rate of 627 units. The annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 38.9% to 3,627 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 843 units which is 23.6% higher than the 682 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate totaled 3,418 units, which is 25.7% above the rate of 2,720 units per year recorded a year ago. “Jacksonville’s quarterly starts and closing rates for the fourth quarter of 2012 fell slightly from third quarter but are well above last year’s fourth quarter rates,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory, equaled 2,069 units on the ground at the end of 4Q12, a 7.3 MOS. Overall, housing inventories increased 11.2% compared to last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 20,153 lots, a decrease 10.8% compared to 22,594 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 66.7 MOS.  “Overall, housing inventory levels have been relatively steady for two years. However the distribution of inventory has improved, with less than 1/3 of inventory finished and vacant today, versus over 50% finished and vacant almost two ago. We anticipate much of the under construction inventory has been sold and do not expect finished housing supply to increase significantly next quarter, as closings should remain strong,” said Crocco.

“The housing resale market remains strong, and inventory continues to decline. The lack of resale inventory and distressed nature of much of it will continue to help the new home market. Housing construction should remain strong as pent up demand continues to drive sales over the next few quarters. After that, we are likely to experience the effect of increasing costs, which will push finished home pricing higher, ultimately slowing activity rates,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email:  acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data collected by a staff of 650, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.