Rising Prices Squeezing Buyers into Resale Market; Builders Must Replace Lots at Higher Prices

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 12-10-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • 3Q14 saw new home starts down 5.3% YoY, even as the annual starts rate is up 6.5%
  • Rising new home prices are pushing buyers into the resale market
  • Builders are working through lot inventories bought during the recession; replacement lots will be more expensive, adding to pricing pressure

December 2014: Metrostudy’s 3Q14 survey of the Jacksonville Market  - Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties – shows 1,383 single-family units were started in the quarter, down 5.3% from 3Q13.

The annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 6.5% to 5,429 annual starts.  Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,429 units which is 15.9% higher than the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 5,452 units, 24.6% above the rate of 4,374 units per year recorded a year ago.

Jacksonville’s quarterly housing starts in the third quarter of 2014 grew from the second quarter, but were slightly below last year’s third quarter. Move-ins grew from the second quarter and were above last year’s third quarter. Activity should continue on an uneven, slight growth path for the next few quarters.

Annual Starts by Price Range

 ac jax 3q

The table below indicates the current distribution of annual starts and closings by price range.

Price Range                 Starts         Closings

< $149,000…………………. 282………… 303

$150,000 to $199,999……1,047 ……. 1,060

$200,000 to $249,999……1,483 ……. 1,529

$250,000 to $299,999……1,120 ……. 1,186

$300,000 to $349,999……. 647………… 641

$350,000 to $399,999……. 339………… 312

>$400,000 …………………. 470………… 413

“Closings and starts have been about the same over the past year, meaning we have not seen a significant increase in housing inventory in any price range,” said Anthony Crocco, Director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville region.  “Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,770 units on the ground at the end of the third quarter, 6.1 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories decreased by 0.8% compared to last year.”

The market’s under construction inventory declined by 231 units to 1,687, or 12.0% compared to last year. Finished vacant inventory increased by 27.1% from 672 units last year to 854 this year.  This quarter, 966 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 19.4% increase from the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 15,223 lots, a decrease of 9.5% compared to 16,814 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 33.6 months of supply, a decrease of 5.9 months from last year.

Overall, there are no issues with housing or vacant lot inventories. Finished home supply is down from last quarter, and the under construction inventory also declined.  Lot inventories are nearing equilibrium for the Jacksonville market, although lots are needed in most of the top selling areas. Lot delivery rates are increasing and should continue to grow for the next few quarters, at least.  The Jacksonville area’s new housing industry is healthy, in spite of slower growth. New housing starts have flattened as inventories are near equilibrium and pricing growth over the past 18 months slowed sales paces. Still, move-in paces remain strong and builder profit margins are good.

“Housing resale markets are continuing to tighten, as the new home pricing growth has pushed more buyers into resales,” said Crocco. “We expect this pressure on resales to continue.  Builders continue to work through lot inventories that were bought or negotiated during the recession. As those inventories run out, replacement lots in comparable locations are costing a lot more. Builders are buying those lots, but also looking further out of the urban area to produce more affordable housing options.”

The top three market areas based on annual starts are shown below.

Market Area                 Ann Starts (% Chg)

St. Johns ………………………2,601 (+6.7%)

Duval……………………………1,653 (+9.4%)

Clay ………………………………. 734 (-11.2%)

The following table identifies the top ten communities as defined by annual construction starts.

Community                           Annual Starts

Nocatee (Duval)………………………… 917

Durbin Crossing (St. Johns) ………… 330

OakLeaf Plantation (Clay)…………… 226

Bartram Park (Duval)…………………. 143

Pablo Bay (Duval) ……………………… 110

Las Calinas (St. Johns)……………….. 110

Eagle Landing (Clay)………………….. 101

Palencia (St. Johns) …………………….. 88

Murabella (St. Johns)…………………… 87

Plummer Creek (Nassau) ……………… 82

 

For information contact:
Anthony Crocco -919- 314-0420
acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Metrostudy Florida Markets: All Florida markets witnessed year-over-year price growth in 2Q14

Posted in Central Florida Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-11-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

FINAL 2Q Florida Release and Infographic_Page_01

 

Florida’s new-home market has been surprisingly resilient in coming out of the downturn. Despite massive numbers of foreclosure homes for sale all around the state, builders have managed to find increasing numbers of buyers, and starts activity has rebounded nicely. Prices moved up rapidly in 2011, 2012, and 2013, rising at a more moderate pace in 2014.

2q chart

 

 

Florida Market-by-Market

Tampa:

The Tampa market continues its slow recovery from the devastating recession. Home starts fell by 85% from the peak to the bottom. While some broad based indicators remain positive, like job growth and the local unemployment rate, they have not resulted in robust demand for new housing. As of mid-2014, the Tampa annual pace for new housing starts was 5,853 units.

While this was a 69% improvement from the 3,462 homes built in 2009, it represents just 26% of the peak starts (22,409 units for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006). Families that lost their homes by foreclosure, have difficulty in qualifying for a mortgage or can’t afford the rising new home prices have driven a greater portion of housing demand into rental apartments.

Tampa Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,510 $241,924 $102.29
3Q13 1,484 $251,058 $104.96
4Q13 1,642 $264,895 $107.68
1Q14 1,108 $272,419 $106.33
2Q14 1,304 $276,138 $106.82

 

Over the last year, single family detached home prices are up 12.7% for the five county Tampa market. Homes that closed during the second quarter of 2014 had an average price of $288,006 versus $255,491 in 2Q13. Not only are prices rising, but the average home size is growing. The 2Q closing records showed the average detached single-family home was 2,738 SF, up 227 SF over the 2Q13 average of 2,511 SF. During the second quarter of 2014, both home size and price were essentially flat.

We have seen prices also rise substantially over the last year in townhome and villa product. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $210,243 or 11.9% higher than the $187,881 average in
2Q13. Unlike the detached product, the average size of attached product is shrinking.

Tampa is a highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for 60% of all annual housing starts in the second quarter of 2014. The list of top builders includes nine national builders and just one local builder. Lennar Homes dominates the list and built more homes than builders #2, 3 and 4 combined.

 

Tampa,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
LennarHomes    1,100
DR Horton 409
Pulte Group 343
M/IHomes 314
TaylorMorrison 280
HomesbyWestBay 262
Standard Pacific Homes 235
BeazerHomes 213
Ryland Homes 189
K.Hovnanian 185
TOTAL 3,530

Sarasota:

The Sarasota market is less reliant upon job growth to create housing demand as the market has a strong reputation for retiree demand. That did not mean that Sarasota was immune to the recession. New home starts fell by 86% from 9,113 for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006 to 1,284 units built in 2009. Sarasota has recovered quicker than other Florida markets and as of June 30, 2014, the annual start pace was 3,839 homes (up 199% from the cyclical low).

As the recovery has taken hold, new home prices are rising. In fact, single-family detached homes sold for an average of $310,266 during 2Q14. This was a 22.5% increase over the $253,285 average price in 2Q13. A portion of the price increase was directly attributable to larger homes being bought. The average new home was 2,368 SF in 2Q14 versus 2,076 SF in 2Q13. Buyers are looking for a fourth bedroom or home office particularly in Manatee County.

Sarasota Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 707 $247,643 $123.57
3Q13 827 $259,779 $126.41
4Q13 937 $284,759 $131.04
1Q14 677 $248,670 $130.09
2Q14 637 $295,825 $130.49

 

For town-home and villa product, prices have not changed over the last twelve months. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $224,293 or just 0.9% higher than the $222,364 average in
2Q13. The data does show that the average size of attached product grew to 1,765 SF. For the prior four quarters the average product size was between 1,597 and 1,680 SF.

Sarasota is a very highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for
72% of all annual housing starts in 2Q14. The list includes seven national builders and three local/regional builders. The list is led by Neal Communities with 627 recorded closings, over one and a half time larger than #2 Pulte Group.

 

Sarasota,
August 1,2013- July 31,2014

Builder Closings
Neal Communities 627
Pulte Group 401
LennarHomes 374
DR Horton 355
TaylorMorrison 349
Ryland Homes 211
WCI Communities 175
Medallion Homes 116
Maronda Homes 109
M/IHomes 72
TOTAL 2,789

 

Southwest Florida:

Southwest Florida’s housing market has recovered nicely from the depths of the Great Recession, and closings were up 31% in 2Q14 over 2Q13. In fact, Metrostudy ranked the Cape Coral Ft. Myers MSA third and the Naples – Marco Island MSA sixth in last month’s “Top Ten Outlook and Market Health Ranking.”

SW Florida Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 611 $384,869 $171.12
3Q13 725 $390,281 $177.32
4Q13 891 $429,191 $188.42
1Q14 728 $434,339 $185.36
2Q14 800 $428,685 $173.00

 

During this same period, the average sales price was up 11%, and the size of the home increased by 10%. In particular, Naples showed a significant jump in pricing and home size, with a $75,000 average increase in pricing, to an average of $543,307, and an over 400 square foot increase (19%) in home size, to an average of 2,744.

However, the price per square foot in Southwest Florida only increased 1% from 2Q13. This may be an anomaly for the current quarter, as price per square foot prices had risen from an average of $171/sf in 2Q13 to over $185/sf in 1Q14. Or, it may reflect a developing trend with builders offering larger homes to offset the increase in sales prices. Metrostudy will monitor this metric to see if a trend emerges one way or the other.

 

Cape Coral-Ft Myers, Naples-Imokalee-Marco Island,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
Lennar 943
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 401
DR Horton 374
Stockdevelopment LLC 355
WCI communities 349
Gl Homes 251
TaylorMorrison 175
Habitat for Humanity 116
Toll Brothers 109
MintoBuilders 72
TOTAL 3,145

 

The Treasure Coast:

As with Southwest Florida, the Treasure Coast has seen a big recovery from the lows of the market back in 2010, and closings are up 36% the second quarter this year over the 2Q13. Home prices are among the most affordable in South Florida. However, prices continue to rise, with the average up 16% to $294,131. The average size of the home increased from 2,285 to 2,443, a 7% jump. Pricing per square foot is the lowest of all three areas, and at only $120/sf, represents a true bargain for South Florida home shoppers. It’s still relatively easy to find a new single family detached home selling for under $200,000 on the Treasure Coast. Nevertheless, the price per square foot increased 8% during this period, so the trend is moving upward.

 

Treasure Coast Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 190 $253,921 $111.12
3Q13 223 $283,141 $115.23
4Q13 259 $294,108 $116.20
1Q14 208 $288,007 $116.22
2Q14 258 $294,131 $120.38

 

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder                   Closings
DR Horton 280
KolterCommunities Florida LLC 199
AdamsHomes 126
AV Homes, Inc. 96
GHO Homes 82
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 60
Maronda Homes 59
MintoBuilders 59
KB Homes 45
HabitatForHumanity 32
TOTAL 1,038

 

Miami- Ft. Lauderdale:
South Florida is the most populous area with approximately 6 million residents. The Miami – Ft. Lauderdale MSA also placed in our Top Ten Ranking at ninth overall.

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,033 $296,665 $154.40
3Q13 1,256 $377,697 $147.25
4Q13 1,331 $417,954 $154.28
1Q14 988 $425,785 $161.90
2Q14 994 $469,107 $171.46

 

Somewhat surprisingly, the closing rate declined by 4% in the current quarter when compared to
2Q13. This is also reflected in the annualized starts rate, which declined in 2Q14 as well. We are seeing the effects of a slight tempering in demand due to the relatively high sales prices and supply constraints caused by lot and labor shortages, which are noticeable in all three of the MSA’s counties.

Those price increases are on par with Naples, with a similar $75,000 jump in the average sales price, to $469,107. The increase in home size was more modest, at only 7% to 2,736. However, the overall size is one of the largest home sizes in all of South Florida; quite similar to Naples. South Florida also saw the largest increase in price per square foot during this period, rising from
$154/sf to $171/sf, or 11%.

In summary, prices continue to rise, although at a more modest pace, particularly in the past couple of quarters. Homes are getting bigger again, and we are likely to set another record for new home size in 2014. While home appreciation is likely to continue, there’s always the concern that higher prices will crimp demand. Supply constraints, especially in South Florida, might mask a muting in demand, but the other two areas could feel the pinch should prices rise beyond what consumers deem as reasonable.

 

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder              Closings
Lennar 1,450
Gl Homes 630
DR Horton 397
CC Devco Homes 316
Standard PacificHomes 304
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 265
Encore Homebuilders 240
MintoBuilders 226
Toll Brothers 219
TerraGroup 143
  TOTAL       5,640  

 

Jacksonville:

The Jacksonville MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $35,000, or 14% in the 2Q14 when compared to the second quarter of 2013. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Jacksonville Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,122 $249,530 $102.12
3Q13 1,143 $259,474 $103.23
4Q13 1,184 $255,260 $104.84
1Q14 1,165 $272,197 $106.74
2Q14 1,297 $284,114 $109.67

 

Even with this pricing growth the market’s quarterly closing rate increased by over 15% in 2Q14 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 600 units in the 4Q11, to 1,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed between 1,300 and 1,400 units per quarter since.

This indicates the market has reached a point where pricing growth has curbed demand. With the strongest market areas being in northern St. Johns County, it is likely the demand for lower priced housing will push demand out of the urban core. We expect to see stronger growth in new housing construction further south in St. Johns county, as well as in Clay and northern and western Duval County over the coming quarters.

 

Jacksonville,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder             Closings
DR Horton 1,046
DreamFindersHomes LLC (Fl) 384
Lennar 373
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 317
Kb Home 292
Richmond AmericanHomes-MDC 281
Mattamy Homes 251
DavidWeekleyHomes 245
Standard PacificHomes 152
Providence Homes(Fl) 146
TOTAL 3,236

 

Orlando:

The Orlando MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $40,000, or 15% in the 2Q14 when compared to the 2Q13. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Orlando Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,855 $259,978 $109.05
3Q13 1,949 $274,837 $110.84
4Q13 2,088 $290,887 $112.50
1Q14 1,699 $290,197 $112.53
2Q14 1,757 $299,460 $116.71

 

Not surprisingly, the market has felt this pricing pressure as the quarterly closing rate declined by
5% in the second quarter of 2014 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 1,000 units in the 2Q11, to 2,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed in the mid-2,000 range since.

What this ultimately means is that demand will be reduced in the urban core, and increase in the outlying areas as buyers look to find, and builders work to produce more affordable product. Orlando has a mix of buyers with significant international and active adult markets, yet remains primarily a Leisure and Resort Service and Retail Trade job market, catering to first time, first time move-up and multi-generational home buyers.

 

Orlando,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder               Closings
Lennar 922
DR Horton 852
Meritage Homes 581
TheRyland Group,Inc. 484
Kb Home 416
M/IHomes 352
BeazerHomes 341
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 299
TaylorMorrison 299
Standard PacificHomes 287
TOTAL 4,833

 

Florida is not just one market, clearly. Activity levels and pricing power vary from one market to the next, but the entire state is set for growing demand over the next five years. From the Millennials to the Boomers, an even greater influx of residents is coming to the state. Demand from retirees is expected to be a palpable force as 10 million more people reach retirement age in the U.S. over the next 5 years. Generation Y is so far showing a tendency to rent, but that will start to change as more of them start families.

For information contact:
Danielle Fiore
813-443-6504
dfiore@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com
About Hanley Wood
Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Market Slowing as Higher Prices Constrain Demand

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 08-14-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

August 2014: Metrostudy today released results of its 2Q14 survey of the Jacksonville housing market, which showed slowing new home construction  since the second half of 2013.  In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,274 single-family units were started in 2Q14, down 11.8% from 2Q13’s rate of 1,444 units. Despite this drop compared to last year’s second quarter, the annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 14.7% to 5,376 annual starts.

Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,342 units, 6.4% higher than the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 5,217 units, 29.0% above the rate recorded a year ago.  Quarterly closings in the Jacksonville market continued the upward trend, although new construction activity slowed slightly from the first quarter. The flat trend in recent quarters’ starts rate was echoed by many of the major markets in the southeast United States. With the growth in retail home pricing over the past year and the lowering of FHA lending limits, we expect uneven growth in new home constrution over the next few quarters.

“Slowing housing growth can reflect weakness in demand, a lack of supply, or a bit of both,” says Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville/Orlando region.  “At this point in the cycle we believe it is both. Quarterly lot deliveries are still running behind quarterly new home construction rates, meaning we are burning thru lots much faster than we are delivering them.”

Weakness in demand is primarily due to pricing. Strong new home construction activity for the past 15-18 months has spurred increases in retail pricing, often at a rate near the peak of the boom. Pricing has also been impacted by increasing lot costs, for both progressive lot takedowns and replacement projects.  New home pricing continues to increase in most locations. As a result, the higher price bands are starting to see strong growth. Builders are generally holding the line on prices, although base price increases seem to be slowing and a few more concessions are being offered.

Annual Starts by Price Range

Jax annual starts by price range

 

“This quarters activity continued the trend of builders abandoning the lower-priced market, as starts over the past year for units priced under $150k declined 35% from the year ending 2Q13,” said Crocco.  “We are seeing a burst of activity at the higher end segment, with annual starts for units priced over $400k up 114% from 2Q13.  The implications of this for the future of the market are significant.”

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,698 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 6.2 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 6.1% compared to last year.

This quarter, 806 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 47.6% increase from 546 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 15,430 lots, a decrease of 11.3% compared to 17,403 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 34.4 months of supply, a decrease of 10.1 months from last year.

Overall housing inventory levels have dropped slightly over the past two quarters. However, the level of finished inventory has grown slightly. With starts having slowed, we do not expect the finished supply to increase significantly.

Vacant lot inventories have been generally declining, and the increase in construction starts has caused the ratio of months of supply to drop below 3 years. However, there are an increasing number of lots being delivered to the market and in the development process, so we expect lot inventory ratios to continue to flatten.

The following table identifies the top ten communities as     defined by annual construction starts.

Community Annual Starts

Nocatee (Duval) …………………………850

Durbin Crossing (St. Johns) …………364

OakLeaf Plantation (Clay) ……………248

Aberdeen (St. Johns)…………………..143

Eagle Landing (Clay) …………………..129

Murabella (St. Johns) ……………………97

Bartram Park (Duval) ……………………97

Two Creeks (Clay) ………………………..88

World Golf Village (St. Johns) ………..86

Victoria Preserve (Duval) ………………83

Like any market, buyers must get used to the sticker shock of rapidly escalated prices. To continue to increase construction activity builders must help the consumer accept the pricing growth, and many builders are through the use of incentives.

For information contact: Anthony Crocco @ 919- 314-0420
Email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts

 

 

 

 

Harry Potter Casts a Spell on Florida’s Economy

Posted in Central Florida Market, In The News, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

anthony cJune 5 (Bloomberg) –Florida’s employment picture has improved faster than any other state since the financial crisis — and some Floridians says that’s because Harry Potter has been working his wizardry in their state.

Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports from Orlando.

See full interview here

Metrostudy Regional Director – Anthony Crocco

Jacksonville Housing Market Metrostudy 1Q14 Survey Results: Jacksonville Housing Market Starts 2014 Strong; Employment Growth will Fuel Growth for the Next Few Quarters

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 8, 2014: Metrostudy today released its 1Q14 survey of housing activity in the Jacksonville market – which includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and St Johns counties. Starts and closings in the Jacksonville region were up significantly in the first quarter from last quarter and from a year ago. In the Jacksonville market 1,552 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2014, an increase of 27.7% from 1Q13. The annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 32.6% to 5,577 annual starts.

Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,510 units, 51.2% higher than the 999 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 5,179 units, which is 41.3% above the rate of 3,666 units per year recorded a year ago.

“The Jacksonville area’s new housing market demonstrated strong growth in the first quarter of 2014, after taking a slight breather in the 4th quarter of 2013, said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Jacksonville/Orlando region. “The fourth quarter slowdown was due more to seasonality than market conditions, and we expect construction activity and employment to continue to grow thru the next two quarters.”

This quarter, 382 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 61.4% decline from 990 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 15,407 lots, a decrease of 17.3% compared to 18,636 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 33.2 months of supply, a decrease of 20.0 months from last year.

The top three market areas and sub-markets based on annual starts are shown below.

Market Area Ann Starts (% Chg)

St. John……………………. 2,739(+29.1%)

Duval………………………….1,646 (+39.8%)

Clay ………………………………789 (+20.6%)

Sub-Market Annual Starts (% Chg)

St. Aug/S. St. Johns………..767 (+22.1%)

210 Corridor………………… 734 (+34.4%)

Orange Park…………………..638 (+30.5%)

Resale closings were down 1.8% YOY in March, while inventory levels are down 2.6%. The median sales price for resale homes is up 12.4% from March 2013, which is expected to help push new home pricing up over the next year.

“With continued strong closing activity, the new home market looks to be in an excellent position to continue strong growth thru this buying season,” says Crocco. “With pricing growth occurring in the best submarkets, we would expect growth to expand into the further out submarkets over the coming quarters, although that has not really begun in Jacksonville like it has in markets further south.”

For information contact: anthony crocco @ 407-875-9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Jacksonville new housing growth continues, but at a slower pace

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 02-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Jacksonville, FL – February 20, 2014) The Jacksonville area new housing market demonstrated slow growth in the second half of 2013; however, most builders have significant backlogs of sold but unbuilt homes. In addition, recent increases in employment numbers over the past few months should help spur housing growth this spring and summer. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,088 single-family units were started in 4Q13. This represents an increase of 10.9% compared to the quarterly starts rate of 981 units in 4Q12. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,148 units, which is 30.5% higher than the 880 closings in the same quarter last year. “Jacksonville’s quarterly starts and closing rates for the fourth quarter of 2013 fell from last quarter, but are still above 2012’s fourth quarter rate. “The slowdown this quarter can be attributed in large part to seasonality, as most builders are reporting significant sales backlogs,” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Jacksonville Market.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units, and models, equaled 2,675 units at the end of 4Q13, representing 7.0 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 24.6% year-over year. Under-construction inventory rose by 389 units over the last year to 1,681, a 30.1% increase. Finished-vacant inventory rose by 20.1%, from 667 units at the end of 4Q12 to 801 at the end of 4Q13. Model home inventory is up 5 units year over year to 193 total models. Builders in this market are closing 23.7 homes per year per model, compared to 18.4 last year. “Overall housing inventory levels remained flat this quarter, after having risen steadily for five or six quarters. However, the distribution of inventory has improved, with less than 1/3 of inventory finished and vacant today, versus over 50% two years ago,” said Crocco.

This quarter, 555 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 52.9% increase from the 363 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 16,747 lots, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 19,042 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 39.3 months-of-supply, a decrease of 21.4 months from last year.

“We expect continued strong starts and closing activity over the next few quarters, with increases in interest rates and base pricing tempering growth. Lot prices will continue to rise in most submarkets adding to the headwinds that will slow the market’s activity growth rate compared to the past year or two,” said Crocco.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Jacksonville housing market maintains strength in the third quarter

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 11-13-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

Jacksonville, FL – November 13, 2013) The Jacksonville area new housing market demonstrated strong growth again in the third quarter of 2013, despite slowing job formations. Much of this is due to the tightening of resale and new home housing supply. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,388 single-family units were started in 3Q13. This represents an increase of 34.2% compared to last year’s rate of 1,034 units. The current annual starts rate of 4,948 is up 45.1% year-over-year. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,193 units, which is 34.0% higher than the 890 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 4,290 units, which is 31.8% above the rate of 3,256 units per year recorded a year ago. “Jacksonville’s quarterly starts and closing rates for the third quarter of 2013 fell slightly from second quarter but are well above last year’s third quarter rates,” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Jacksonville Market.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units, and models, equaled 2,697 units at the end of the third quarter, for 7.5 months of supply. Overall, total inventory rose 32.3% versus one year ago. Compared to last year, under construction inventory rose 52.3%, from 622 units to 1,811. Finished vacant inventory increased by 4.4% from 654 units last year to 683 this year. Model home inventory is up 7 units from last year to 203 total models. Builders in this market are closing 21.1 homes per year per model compared to 16.6 last year.

This quarter, 391 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 5.1% increase from 372 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 17,448 lots, a decrease of 12.6% from the 19,954 lots a year ago. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 42.3 months-of-supply, down from 70.2 months-of-supply a year ago. The total housing inventory level has grown over the past few quarters, almost entirely in the form of under-construction inventory. Therefore, the distribution of inventory has shrunk for finished homes, with less than 30% of inventory finished and vacant. “We believe that most of the under construction inventory has been sold and do not expect finished housing supply to increase significantly in the short term. The vacant developed lot months of supply ratio should continue to decline nicely in the short term,” said Crocco.

“Our conclusions have been relatively consistent the past few quarters. We expect to see a continued slight to moderate upward bounce in the Jacksonville new home market in the near term. Because of supply shortages, the better submarkets should experience well above market rate activity and pricing growth over that same period,” said Crocco.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Jacksonville housing market maintains growth in the second quarter of 2013

Posted in Jacksonville Market | Posted on 09-09-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Jacksonville, FL –September 9, 2013) While new housing activity has been heating up in many Florida markets for the past two years, Jacksonville’s housing market had slow growth or was flat until the past couple of quarters. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In the Jacksonville Market (Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties), 1,368 single-family units were started in 2Q13. This represents an increase of 44.2% compared to last year’s rate of 949 units. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,229 units which is 37.3% higher than the 895 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate (past 4 quarters) totaled 3,968 units, which is 26.6% above the rate of 3,135 units per year recorded a year ago. “Since builders have a significant backlog of new sale contracts, we expect continued growth in starts and closings over the next few quarters, at least,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,492 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 7.5 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 30.3% compared to last year. Compared to last year, under construction inventory rose 43.9%, or 454 units to 1,488. Finished vacant inventory increased by 16.6% from 686 units last year to 800 this year. Model home inventory is up 12 units from last year to 204 total models. Builders in this market are closing 19.5 homes per year per model compared to 16.3 last year. “Increases in housing inventory are mostly in the under construction category, indicating strong end user demand. We anticipate low finished inventory levels in the near term given the sales contract backlogs at most builders,” said Crocco.

This quarter, 137 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 54.9% decline from 304 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 18,052 lots, a decrease of 12.8% compared to 20,704 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 47.6 months of supply, a decrease of 29.7 months from last year. “Lot development is picking up in the “A” and “B” locations and we anticipate increased development activity in the coming quarters. The vacant developed lot ratio will continue to decline nicely and now shows under 4 years supply overall, down from almost 8 years of lot inventory, just a year ago,” said Crocco.

In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 15,500 jobs over the 12 months through May 2013, representing an increase of 2.6%. The Professional & Business Services sector (8,600 or 9.4%), Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (3,800 or 3%), Leisure & Hospitality (2,400 or 6.9%), Education & Health (2,500 or 3.4%), and Construction (1,600 or 5.9%) sectors recorded significant gains over the past year. “None of the sectors exhibited a decline or addition of 1,000 jobs or more over the past year,” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Jacksonville Market.

“Our forecast is for strong activity through year end, at least, with builders working to hang on to margins in an environment of cost increases. At the same time, builders are looking hard at lot and land positions to secure the future lots needed to grow their respective businesses,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.