Metrostudy Market Analysis: Nevada & Northern California

Posted in Las Vegas Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market | Posted on 07-07-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

greg gWhat’s happening in Vegas? Greg Gross, Metrostudy regional director for Northern California and Nevada, explains the steady return to a new normal for a Sin City, a housing crash epicenter, and Nor Cal’s affordability struggle in his market overview at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yihbGJ2RLnY

Metrostudy Markets Analyses at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit

Posted in Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Las Vegas Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-02-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

The housing recovery hasn’t been a one-size-fits-all proposition. In Northern California, affordability remains a constant hurdle, while Tampa, Fla., and Las Vegas are clawing their way back after dramatic losses during the recession. In Dallas and South Florida, the markets are so strong that builders are being forced to come up with creative ways to manufacture lots. Raleigh, N.C., is also experiencing shirking supply but has recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession. And in Houston, buoyed by the strong energy sector, home prices have risen 17%. These were just some of the observations that came out from Metrostudy’s regional directors at Hanley Wood’s Housing Leadership Summit in Dana Point, Calif., in May. Check out the videos from the discussion below.

Watch Full Videos Here

Las Vegas Housing Market Metrostudy 1Q14 Survey Results: Demand Slightly Weaker, Supply of Lots Very Tight

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 05-19-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 19, 2014: Metrostudy’s 1Q14 survey of the Las Vegas housing market shows that the spectacular growth of 2013 is tapering into this year. The annual closing pace slowed slightly, as did the quarterly start pace. We counted 1,287 new home starts during the 1st quarter of 2014, 13% less than the 1Q13 starts. Through 1Q14 annual single-family new home closings were 6,576, up 18% from 1Q13, the annual start pace increased 5% YOY but is 3% less than the 4Q13 level. All of these numbers indicate both slightly weaker demand and very tight lot supply.

“The availability of lots and the shortage’s impact on land prices continues to be the main story for 2014,” said Greg Gross, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas market. “For the past two years, builders had to consider and purchase “B” and “C” grade lots just to maintain their position in the market place as class “A” lots dwindled. 2013 marked a turning point as land development increased 81%, and 1Q14 is no exception as lot development has increased 67% compared to 1Q13.”

Total finished lot supply has fallen considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 13.5 and supply has decreased 22% since 1Q13. The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. With only 7,300 Finished SFD lots, 4Q13 proved to be the quarter where large scale development began. There are now 15,252 lots in development compared to 3Q13 when only about 8,000 lots were under development, showing that immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year. The majority of the new lots in development are in Cadence. It is worth noting that this is the lowest level of finished lot supply since Metrostudy began counting in 2002.

Inevitably, the lack of available lots is driving prices up: average sales price for Single Family Homes increased 17% this year while Median sales price also increased 21%. Compared to March 2013, the average list price of for-sale homes is 19% higher at $299k.

The increasing cost of lots will mean fewer offerings at lower price points in the future. “Production under $200K represents only 12% of all housing start this quarter compared to 1Q13 when 24% where under $200K,” said Gross. “New home prices have risen dramatically this year. Our median “offer to build” price for active projects is 15% higher than one year ago.”

Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. Metrostudy expects demand to remain steady yet the year may end slightly lower than 2013. As the first quarter has demonstrated, the tightened lending standards, lower FHA limits, rising home prices and interest rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home-buying decisions during 2014.

For information contact: greg gross @ 916.231.9370
Email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

2013; Best Year since 2008 for Las Vegas Housing Market

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 01-30-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – January 30, 2014) Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. However, Metrostudy expects demand to remain steady with a possible slight decline in 2014. Tightening lending standards, lower FHA limits, rising home prices and interest rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home buying decisions during 2014.This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Through 4Q13; annual single-family new home closings were 6,686. That is 35% more than in 4Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, while the quarterly start pace has flattened. Metrostudy counted 1,389 new home starts during the fourth quarter of 4Q13, which is nearly identical to the 4Q12 starts. The annual start pace increased an impressive 20% but has leveled this quarter. Quarterly SFD starts were down 23% compared to 3Q13, indicative of both slightly weaker demand and lower lot supply.

“Lot inventory levels began to erode at a staggering pace over the past 24 months. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply this year,” said Greg Gross Metrostudy’s Regional Director in the Las Vegas market.

”The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today,” said Gross.  With only 8,300 Finished SFD lots, 4Q13 proved to be the quarter where large scale development began. There are nearly 13,700 lots in development compared to 3Q13 when only about 8,000 lots under development, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year. The majority of the new lots in development are in Cadence. It is worth noting that the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002!

“One of the most challenging issues over the past year was the availability of lots and the impact on land prices. 2012 marked a turning point for builders as they began to consider and purchase “B” and “C” grade lots just to maintain their position in the market place as the class “A” lots dwindle. 2013 marked a turning point as land development increased 81%,” said Gross.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Las Vegas housing market remains steady in the third quarter… but will it last?

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 11-12-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – November 12, 2013) Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. The new normal will be steady absorptions, increased construction costs and a tightened labor supply. However, a thorough understanding of competitive framework, buyer segmentation and conducting crucial. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Through 3Q13, annual single-family new home closings were 6,632. That is 53% more than in 3Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, while the quarterly start pace flattened. We counted 1,811 new home starts during the third quarter of 3Q13 compared to 1,802 starts during 3Q12. The annual start pace increased an impressive 38% but has leveled this quarter.

Total finished vacant housing inventory has declined 25% this year. Single-family product represents 25% of all inventory; which is only 1.2 months of supply at current pace. Attached finished and vacant inventory is 2,082 with months of supply at 21.6. However, annual closings of condominiums are up 142%, which is lowering the condominium supply considerably. “The high rise market has seen a significant flurry of activity this year as investors have realized the value of Las Vegas. Entry and mid-level product will be opportunistic as the market slide ends,” said Gross.  The attached home market has seen sales prices increase nearly 63% this year.

“Lot inventory levels began to erode at a staggering pace over the past 24 months. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply this year,” said Gross.  Total finished lot supply has fallen considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 14.4, which is 46% lower than 3Q12. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we are depleting the supply. The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. With only 8,100 SFD lots and only about 8,000 lots under development, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year, however the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002!

“Metrostudy expects demand to remain steady with a slight decline in 2014. Economic uncertainty, raising home prices and interests rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home-buying decisions during 2014,” said Gross.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Las Vegas housing market maintains strength in the second quarter of 2013

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 07-25-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – July 25, 2013) Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. One of the more challenging issues over the next 2 years will be the availability of lots. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Overall employment is up 2.2% from one year ago. The total number of people employed in Las Vegas has risen to 843,500, the highest level since February 2009. “While Las Vegas remains much more diversified today than in years past, the market is still heavily reliant on the Leisure Industry,” said Greg Gross, regional director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas market.   The unemployment rate continues to improve but did rise slightly to 10.1%, due to seasonal factors.  Prior to this year, the last time the unemployment rate has been below 10% was December 2008.

Through 2Q13; annual single-family new home closings were 6,298. That is 65% more than in 2Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, as does the quarterly start pace. We counted 2,036 new home starts during the 2nd quarter of 2013 compared to 1,479 starts during 2Q12. That is an increase of 38%. “The last time there were more than 2,000 quarterly new home starts was 3Q2007. The annual start pace increased an impressive 61%. Even the once burdensome Attached market has stabilized and new projects are beginning to appear,” said Gross.

Finished vacant attached housing makes up 36% of all housing inventory this year. The finished and vacant attached product represents 77% of all attached inventory; which is 25 months of supply. Annual closings are up 139% which is lowering the condo supply considerably.

Lot inventory levels began to erode at a staggering pace over the past 12 months. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply this year. Total finished lot supply has retreated considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 15.3 which is 56% lower than 2Q12. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we are depleting the supply. The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. “With only 8,500 SFD lots and only about 8,000 lots underdevelopment, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year, however the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002,” said Gross.

“One of the most challenging issues over the next 2 years will be the availability of lots and the impact of the shortage will have on land prices. 2012 marked a turning point for builders as they began to consider and purchase “B” and “C” grade lots just to maintain their position in the market place as the class “A” lots dwindle. 2013 will be challenging as lots and entitled land will be in extremely short supply. The planning departments will need to dust off the office equipment as they will most likely see a much busier year, “said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 702-739-5855
email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

The Las Vegas market stabilizes in 2013

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 05-08-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – May 8, 2013) As 2013 begins, the Las Vegas housing market has stabilized and is beginning to quickly improve. One of the more challenging issues over the next 2 years will be the availability of lots. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Annual job growth has remained positive through February, adding 16,000 jobs. Overall employment is up 2% from one year ago. The total number of people employed in Las Vegas has risen to 826,500, the strongest start to a new year since 2009. “While Las Vegas remains much more diversified today than in years past, the market is still heavily reliant on the Leisure Industry. Overall improvement in the broader U.S. economy will do nothing but improve the local economy,” said Greg Gross, regional director of Metrostudy’s Reno, Las Vegas and Northern/Central California markets.  The unemployment rate continues to improve and has fallen to 9.8%. The last time the unemployment rate has been below 10% was December 2008.

Through 1Q13; annual single-family new home closings were 5,581. That’s 52% more than in 1Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, as does the quarterly start pace. We counted 1,471 new home starts during the first quarter of 2013 compared to 884 starts during 1Q12. That’s an increase of 66%. The annual start pace increased an impressive 71%. “The good news is that production in increasing and at the same time we are seeing price increases. Even the once burdensome attached market has stabilized and new projects are beginning to appear. Annual closings for SFD housing will grow this year but with new inventory depleted, starts will continue to increase,” said Gross.

Finished vacant attached housing makes up 46% of all housing inventory this year, the market continues to suffer with excessive mid-rise and high rise projects that when conceived simply had no real occupancy demand. The finished and vacant attached product represents 80% of all attached inventory; which is 77 months of supply. “The high rise market has seen a significant flurry of activity this year as investors have realized the value of Las Vegas. Entry and mid-level product will be opportunistic as the market slide ends,” said Gross.  The attached market has seen sales prices increase nearly 70% this year. Even the once problematic condo market is beginning to recover strongly.

Total finished lot supply has retreated considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 18.6 which is 58% lower than 1Q13. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we are depleting the supply. “The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. With only 9,568 SFD lots and only about 9,000 lots under development, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year, however the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002,” said Gross.

“Through February 2012, builders pulled 6,655 Single Family permits over the past 12 months. Compared to 3,908 during the same period of 2012; an increase of 70%. Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. The new normal will be steady absorptions, increased construction costs and a tightened labor supply. However, a thorough understanding of competitive framework, buyer segmentation and conducting crucial strategic planning will be vital for success. Future projects are beginning to be re-evaluated and the rush will be on to get some of the larger master-planned projects re-started, Kyle Canyon, Park Highlands, Inspirada and Lake Las Vegas to name a few, “said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 702-739-5855
email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

Las Vegas housing market strengthens in 2012

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 02-20-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV– February 20, 2013) As 2013 comes to a close, the Las Vegas housing market has stabilized and is beginning to improve, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Annual job growth has remained positive through December, adding 15,700 jobs. Big gains in Leisure Services, Education and Health, Retail Trade have off-set losses in Construction and Business Services. Overall employment is up nearly 2% from a year ago. The total number of people employed in Las Vegas has risen to 830,600, a level not seen since June 2009. “If job growth continues, Las Vegas will remain a strong relocation destination into the future as in the past, especially with migration from California,” said Greg Gross, director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas Region. The unemployment rate continues to improve and has fallen to 10%. The last time the unemployment rate has been below 10% was December 2008.

We 1,390 new home starts during 4Q12 compared to 712 starts during 4Q11. That’s an increase of 95%. We counted 5,548 new single family home starts in 2012, an increase of 60% over 2011. “The good news is that production is increasing and at the same time we are seeing price increases,” said Gross.  Through 4Q12; annual single-family new home closings were 4,928. That’s 41% more than in 4Q11. The annual closing pace continues to increase, as does the quarterly start pace.

Finished Vacant Attached housing makes up 46% of all housing inventory this year. “The market continues to suffer with excessive mid rise and high rise projects that when conceived simply had no real occupancy demand,” said Gross. The Finished and Vacant attached product represents 80% of all attached inventory; which is 77 months of supply.

“Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. The new normal will be steady absorptions, difficult lending standards and increased construction costs. However, a thorough understanding of competitive framework, buyer segmentation and conducting crucial strategic planning will be vital for success. Future projects are beginning to be re-evaluated and the rush will be on to get some of the larger master-planned projects re-started, Kyle Canyon, Park Highlands, Inspirada and Lake Las Vegas to name a few,” said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 702-739-5855
email: ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Housing: Anatomy of the Rebound

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Austin Market, Chicago Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Las Vegas Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Naples Condo Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Tucson Market, Twin Cities Market | Posted on 01-31-2013 | Written by Brad Hunter

Metrostudy’s new study of housing in markets across the country puts hard numbers to the housing recovery, and provides a detailed look at differences in the trajectory among regions.  The data (collected at the end of calendar year 2012, and newly analyzed) indicate extreme variance among markets and submarkets, with some markets’ single-family production up 90% or more versus a year ago.

Starts of detached homes rose by an impressive 46.9% from year-end 2011 to year-end 2012, and the rebound is starting a virtuous cycle, providing a much-needed boost to personal incomes, which in turn translate into still-higher demand for homes.

It is important to understand the forces that are driving construction activity higher as well as those that are restraining gains in some areas.  In some markets, there are land constraints that work to the advantage of the builders who have lot positions and ongoing projects in those submarkets, keeping the number of head-on competitors low.  Additionally, the builders that have lot positions in lot-constrained submarkets are able to push prices up much more easily, and they have a strong incentive to do so, because:  (1) they can make more profit by selling the homes at higher prices, and, (2) they don’t want to run out of lots too quickly.

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Las Vegas housing market continues to improve in 3Q12

Posted in Las Vegas Market, National Housing Market | Posted on 10-30-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV–October 30th 2012) As 2012 comes to a close, the Las Vegas housing market has stabilized and is beginning to improve, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Annual job growth has remained positive through September, adding 5,100 jobs. Big gains in Leisure Services, Education and Health, Retail Trade have off-set losses in Construction, Real Estate and Government. Overall employment is up nearly 2% from January. “If job growth continues, Las Vegas will remain a strong relocation destination into the future as in the past, especially with migration from California,” said Greg Gross, director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas Region. Overall employment is up nearly 1% from one year ago and there are nearly 2% more people employed now than the January of this year. Recovery in the broader national economy is a key issue for Las Vegas.

We counted 1,816 new home starts during 3Q12 compared to 1,085 starts during 3Q11. That’s an increase of 66%. Annual new home starts increased 46% over 3Q11. Through 3Q12; annual single-family new home closings were 4,359. That’s 26% MORE than in 3Q11. The annual closing pace continues to increase, as does the quarterly start pace. ”The good news is that production in increasing and at the same time we are seeing price increases. Even the once burdensome Attached market has stabilized and new projects are beginning to appear,” said Gross.

Finished Vacant Attached housing makes up 40% of all housing inventory this year. “The market continues to suffer with excessive mid rise and high rise projects that when conceived simply had no real occupancy demand,” said Gross. The Finished and Vacant attached product represents 67% of all attached inventory; which is 80MOS. .

“The last half of 2011 and the first three quarters of 2012 proved to be busier than 2010 which will help spur better confidence in the market. The new normal will be steady absorptions, difficult lending standards and increased construction costs. However, a thorough understanding of competitive framework, buyer segmentation and conducting crucial strategic planning will be vital for success,” said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 702-739-5855
email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com