Prices Continue to Climb even as Demand Weakens; Lot Supply Tightens

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 12-10-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • Prices of new homes continue their dramatic rise this year, continuing the squeeze on lower income and first time homebuyers
  • New Home Starts under $200k represent only 9% of 3Q14 activity, down 31% from 3Q13 levels
  • Supply of finished lots is at the lowest level since Metrostudy began tracking this activity in 2002

December 2014: Metrostudy’s survey of the Las Vegas housing market shows that through 3Q14, annual single-family new home closings were 5,695. That’s 14% LESSthan in 3Q13. The quarterly closing count improved slightly, as did the quarterly start pace. We counted 1,639 new home starts during the 3rd quarter of 2014 which is 8% less than the 3Q13 starts, but about 1% more than the previous quarter. The annual start pace decreased by 19% YOY. All of these indicators point to both slightly weaker demand and very tight lot supply.

“New home prices have risen dramatically this year,” said Greg Gross, Director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas Region. “Our median “offer to build” price for active projects is $287K; 7% higher than one year ago.  We are seeing fewer and fewer homes available at the lower price ranges.

Production under $200K represents only 9% of all housing starts for the quarter compared to 3Q13 when 13% were under $200K. Pricing in the resale market has also improved rapidly. Average sales price for Single Family Homes increased 7% this year with Median sales price also increasing 13%. Compared to September 2013, the average asking price of for-sale homes is 23% higher at $307k.”

Las Vegas Shift in Housing Starts Pricing

greg lv 3q

Total Finished Vacant housing inventory has declined 16% this year. Single Family product which represents 35% of all inventory; has only 1.4 months of supply at current pace. Attached finished and vacant inventory is 1,905 with months of supply at 24. However annual closings of condos are improved dramatically during the past 2 years which lowered the condo supply considerably.

The highrise market has seen a significant flurry of activity this year as investors have realized the value of Las Vegas. Entry and mid-level product will be opportunistic as the market slide ends. The attached home market has seen the median sales price increase 10% this year

The lot inventory level has eroded steadily since the first quarter of 2008. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply over the past two years.  Total finished lot supply has fallen considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply stands at 16 and supply has decreased 8% since 3Q13. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we continue to deplete the supply even as 2,100 new lots were added during the third quarter. A total of 5,123 Single Family lots have been delivered over the past 12 months and lot supply remains near record lows.

The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. There are now 13,607 lots in development compared to 3Q13 when only about 9,300 lots were under development, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year. The majority of the new lots in development are in Summerlin, Inspirada and Cadence. It is worth noting that this number of finished lot supply is the lowest since Metrostudy began counting in 2002.

“One of the most challenging issues over the past year was the availability of lots and the impact on land prices,” said Gross.  “2013 marked a turning point as land development increased 81%. The third quarter of 2014 is no exception as lot development has increased 47% compared to 3Q13.  Builder confidence in the market remains strong as the market is at 2008 levels. However affordability may be reaching a point which may begin to force first time buyers out of the market for new homes. The tightened lending standards, lower FHA limits, rising home prices and interest rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home-buying decisions during 2014 and 2015.”

Metrostudy’s Weekly Sales and Traffic reports show that the weekly Sales per Subdivision has fallen below levels reached in 2012 and 2013. At the same time, both the weekly Cancellation Rate and the Weekly Cancellation Rate has risen higher than the previous two years. This is notable since the Traffic per Subdivision is higher than the past two years. It appears that while shoppers are visiting the new home communities, they are not committing to purchase at the same pace as we enter the end of 2014.

For information contact:
Greg Gross – 916.231.9370
ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Las Vegas Housing : Prices Hit 2008 Levels; Finished Lots at Lowest Levels since 2002

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 08-22-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

August 2014: Metrostudy’s 2Q14 survey of the Las Vegas housing market showed builder confidence in the market strengthening as price levels approach 2008 levels. New home demand remains strong as the Valley continues to enjoy steady in-migration; however affordability may be reaching a point which may begin to force first time buyers out of the market for single family homes and into different product lines.

“One of the most challenging issues over the past year for the Las Vegas market has been the availability of lots and the impact on land prices,” said Greg Gross, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas Market. “2013 marked a turning point as land development increased 81%. The second quarter of 2014 is no exception as lot development has increased 76% compared to 2Q13.”

New home prices have risen dramatically this year, and pricing in the resale market is improving rapidly. Average sales price for Single Family Homes increased 9% this year with Median sales price also increasing 14%. Compared to June 2013, the average list price of for-sale homes is 17% higher at $309k.  Production under $200K represents only 13% of all housing starts for the quarter compared to 2Q13 when 14% where under $200K. Our median “offer to build” price for active projects is $279K; 5% higher than one year ago.

Through 2Q14, annual single-family new home closings were 6,124. That’s 3% LESS than in 2Q13. The annual closing pace slowed slightly, as did the quarterly start pace. We counted 1,565 new home starts during the 2nd quarter of 2014 which is 24% less than the 2Q13 starts. The annual start pace decreased by 12% YOY. All of which can be indicative of both slightly weaker demand and very tight lot supply.

Top Ten Builder Rankings for 2Q14

Rank Builder 2Q14 Starts Mkt. Share
1 D.R. Horton 252 14.8%
2 Lennar 215 12.6%
3 Ryland 166 9.7%
4 Richmond American 135 7.9%
5 KB Home 131 7.6%
6 American West 112 6.5%
7 Pardee   99 5.8%
8 Century Communities   70 4.1%
9 Toll Brothers 66 3.8%
10 William Lyon 64 3.7%
Top Ten Total 1,310 76.9%

 

Total Finished Vacant housing inventory has declined 21% this year. Single Family product which represents 32% of all inventory, has only 1.1 months of supply at current pace. Attached finished and vacant inventory is 1,200 with months of supply at 22. However annual closings of condos improved dramatically during 2013 which lowered the condo supply considerably.

“The high rise market has seen a significant flurry of activity this year as investors have realized the value of Las Vegas,” said Gross. “Entry and mid-level product will be opportunistic as the market slide ends. The attached home market has seen sales prices increase 10% this year.”

The lot inventory level has eroded steadily since the first quarter of 2008. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply over the past two years. Total finished lot supply has fallen considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply stands at 14 and supply has decreased 18% since 2Q13. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we continue to deplete the supply even as nearly 1,100 new lots were added during the second quarter.

The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. The majority of the new lots in development are in Summerlin, Inspirada and Cadence. It is worth noting that finished lot supply is the lowest level since Metrostudy began counting in 2002.

Metrostudy expects demand to remain steady yet the year may end slightly lower than 2013. The tightened lending standards, lower FHA limits, rising home prices and interest rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home-buying decisions during 2014.

For information contact: greg gross @ 916.231.9370
Email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Metrostudy Market Analysis: Nevada & Northern California

Posted in Las Vegas Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market | Posted on 07-07-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

greg gWhat’s happening in Vegas? Greg Gross, Metrostudy regional director for Northern California and Nevada, explains the steady return to a new normal for a Sin City, a housing crash epicenter, and Nor Cal’s affordability struggle in his market overview at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yihbGJ2RLnY

Metrostudy Markets Analyses at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit

Posted in Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Las Vegas Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-02-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

The housing recovery hasn’t been a one-size-fits-all proposition. In Northern California, affordability remains a constant hurdle, while Tampa, Fla., and Las Vegas are clawing their way back after dramatic losses during the recession. In Dallas and South Florida, the markets are so strong that builders are being forced to come up with creative ways to manufacture lots. Raleigh, N.C., is also experiencing shirking supply but has recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession. And in Houston, buoyed by the strong energy sector, home prices have risen 17%. These were just some of the observations that came out from Metrostudy’s regional directors at Hanley Wood’s Housing Leadership Summit in Dana Point, Calif., in May. Check out the videos from the discussion below.

Watch Full Videos Here

Las Vegas Housing Market Metrostudy 1Q14 Survey Results: Demand Slightly Weaker, Supply of Lots Very Tight

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 05-19-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 19, 2014: Metrostudy’s 1Q14 survey of the Las Vegas housing market shows that the spectacular growth of 2013 is tapering into this year. The annual closing pace slowed slightly, as did the quarterly start pace. We counted 1,287 new home starts during the 1st quarter of 2014, 13% less than the 1Q13 starts. Through 1Q14 annual single-family new home closings were 6,576, up 18% from 1Q13, the annual start pace increased 5% YOY but is 3% less than the 4Q13 level. All of these numbers indicate both slightly weaker demand and very tight lot supply.

“The availability of lots and the shortage’s impact on land prices continues to be the main story for 2014,” said Greg Gross, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas market. “For the past two years, builders had to consider and purchase “B” and “C” grade lots just to maintain their position in the market place as class “A” lots dwindled. 2013 marked a turning point as land development increased 81%, and 1Q14 is no exception as lot development has increased 67% compared to 1Q13.”

Total finished lot supply has fallen considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 13.5 and supply has decreased 22% since 1Q13. The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. With only 7,300 Finished SFD lots, 4Q13 proved to be the quarter where large scale development began. There are now 15,252 lots in development compared to 3Q13 when only about 8,000 lots were under development, showing that immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year. The majority of the new lots in development are in Cadence. It is worth noting that this is the lowest level of finished lot supply since Metrostudy began counting in 2002.

Inevitably, the lack of available lots is driving prices up: average sales price for Single Family Homes increased 17% this year while Median sales price also increased 21%. Compared to March 2013, the average list price of for-sale homes is 19% higher at $299k.

The increasing cost of lots will mean fewer offerings at lower price points in the future. “Production under $200K represents only 12% of all housing start this quarter compared to 1Q13 when 24% where under $200K,” said Gross. “New home prices have risen dramatically this year. Our median “offer to build” price for active projects is 15% higher than one year ago.”

Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. Metrostudy expects demand to remain steady yet the year may end slightly lower than 2013. As the first quarter has demonstrated, the tightened lending standards, lower FHA limits, rising home prices and interest rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home-buying decisions during 2014.

For information contact: greg gross @ 916.231.9370
Email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

2013; Best Year since 2008 for Las Vegas Housing Market

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 01-30-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – January 30, 2014) Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. However, Metrostudy expects demand to remain steady with a possible slight decline in 2014. Tightening lending standards, lower FHA limits, rising home prices and interest rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home buying decisions during 2014.This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Through 4Q13; annual single-family new home closings were 6,686. That is 35% more than in 4Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, while the quarterly start pace has flattened. Metrostudy counted 1,389 new home starts during the fourth quarter of 4Q13, which is nearly identical to the 4Q12 starts. The annual start pace increased an impressive 20% but has leveled this quarter. Quarterly SFD starts were down 23% compared to 3Q13, indicative of both slightly weaker demand and lower lot supply.

“Lot inventory levels began to erode at a staggering pace over the past 24 months. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply this year,” said Greg Gross Metrostudy’s Regional Director in the Las Vegas market.

”The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today,” said Gross.  With only 8,300 Finished SFD lots, 4Q13 proved to be the quarter where large scale development began. There are nearly 13,700 lots in development compared to 3Q13 when only about 8,000 lots under development, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year. The majority of the new lots in development are in Cadence. It is worth noting that the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002!

“One of the most challenging issues over the past year was the availability of lots and the impact on land prices. 2012 marked a turning point for builders as they began to consider and purchase “B” and “C” grade lots just to maintain their position in the market place as the class “A” lots dwindle. 2013 marked a turning point as land development increased 81%,” said Gross.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Las Vegas housing market remains steady in the third quarter… but will it last?

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 11-12-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – November 12, 2013) Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. The new normal will be steady absorptions, increased construction costs and a tightened labor supply. However, a thorough understanding of competitive framework, buyer segmentation and conducting crucial. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Through 3Q13, annual single-family new home closings were 6,632. That is 53% more than in 3Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, while the quarterly start pace flattened. We counted 1,811 new home starts during the third quarter of 3Q13 compared to 1,802 starts during 3Q12. The annual start pace increased an impressive 38% but has leveled this quarter.

Total finished vacant housing inventory has declined 25% this year. Single-family product represents 25% of all inventory; which is only 1.2 months of supply at current pace. Attached finished and vacant inventory is 2,082 with months of supply at 21.6. However, annual closings of condominiums are up 142%, which is lowering the condominium supply considerably. “The high rise market has seen a significant flurry of activity this year as investors have realized the value of Las Vegas. Entry and mid-level product will be opportunistic as the market slide ends,” said Gross.  The attached home market has seen sales prices increase nearly 63% this year.

“Lot inventory levels began to erode at a staggering pace over the past 24 months. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply this year,” said Gross.  Total finished lot supply has fallen considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 14.4, which is 46% lower than 3Q12. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we are depleting the supply. The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. With only 8,100 SFD lots and only about 8,000 lots under development, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year, however the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002!

“Metrostudy expects demand to remain steady with a slight decline in 2014. Economic uncertainty, raising home prices and interests rates and the expected increase in resale homes entering the market, are all factors which may cause new home buyers to rethink their home-buying decisions during 2014,” said Gross.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Las Vegas housing market maintains strength in the second quarter of 2013

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 07-25-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – July 25, 2013) Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. One of the more challenging issues over the next 2 years will be the availability of lots. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Overall employment is up 2.2% from one year ago. The total number of people employed in Las Vegas has risen to 843,500, the highest level since February 2009. “While Las Vegas remains much more diversified today than in years past, the market is still heavily reliant on the Leisure Industry,” said Greg Gross, regional director of Metrostudy’s Las Vegas market.   The unemployment rate continues to improve but did rise slightly to 10.1%, due to seasonal factors.  Prior to this year, the last time the unemployment rate has been below 10% was December 2008.

Through 2Q13; annual single-family new home closings were 6,298. That is 65% more than in 2Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, as does the quarterly start pace. We counted 2,036 new home starts during the 2nd quarter of 2013 compared to 1,479 starts during 2Q12. That is an increase of 38%. “The last time there were more than 2,000 quarterly new home starts was 3Q2007. The annual start pace increased an impressive 61%. Even the once burdensome Attached market has stabilized and new projects are beginning to appear,” said Gross.

Finished vacant attached housing makes up 36% of all housing inventory this year. The finished and vacant attached product represents 77% of all attached inventory; which is 25 months of supply. Annual closings are up 139% which is lowering the condo supply considerably.

Lot inventory levels began to erode at a staggering pace over the past 12 months. “Class A” positions have quickly become in short supply this year. Total finished lot supply has retreated considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 15.3 which is 56% lower than 2Q12. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we are depleting the supply. The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. “With only 8,500 SFD lots and only about 8,000 lots underdevelopment, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year, however the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002,” said Gross.

“One of the most challenging issues over the next 2 years will be the availability of lots and the impact of the shortage will have on land prices. 2012 marked a turning point for builders as they began to consider and purchase “B” and “C” grade lots just to maintain their position in the market place as the class “A” lots dwindle. 2013 will be challenging as lots and entitled land will be in extremely short supply. The planning departments will need to dust off the office equipment as they will most likely see a much busier year, “said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 702-739-5855
email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

The Las Vegas market stabilizes in 2013

Posted in Las Vegas Market | Posted on 05-08-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Las Vegas, NV – May 8, 2013) As 2013 begins, the Las Vegas housing market has stabilized and is beginning to quickly improve. One of the more challenging issues over the next 2 years will be the availability of lots. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Annual job growth has remained positive through February, adding 16,000 jobs. Overall employment is up 2% from one year ago. The total number of people employed in Las Vegas has risen to 826,500, the strongest start to a new year since 2009. “While Las Vegas remains much more diversified today than in years past, the market is still heavily reliant on the Leisure Industry. Overall improvement in the broader U.S. economy will do nothing but improve the local economy,” said Greg Gross, regional director of Metrostudy’s Reno, Las Vegas and Northern/Central California markets.  The unemployment rate continues to improve and has fallen to 9.8%. The last time the unemployment rate has been below 10% was December 2008.

Through 1Q13; annual single-family new home closings were 5,581. That’s 52% more than in 1Q12. The annual closing pace continues to increase, as does the quarterly start pace. We counted 1,471 new home starts during the first quarter of 2013 compared to 884 starts during 1Q12. That’s an increase of 66%. The annual start pace increased an impressive 71%. “The good news is that production in increasing and at the same time we are seeing price increases. Even the once burdensome attached market has stabilized and new projects are beginning to appear. Annual closings for SFD housing will grow this year but with new inventory depleted, starts will continue to increase,” said Gross.

Finished vacant attached housing makes up 46% of all housing inventory this year, the market continues to suffer with excessive mid-rise and high rise projects that when conceived simply had no real occupancy demand. The finished and vacant attached product represents 80% of all attached inventory; which is 77 months of supply. “The high rise market has seen a significant flurry of activity this year as investors have realized the value of Las Vegas. Entry and mid-level product will be opportunistic as the market slide ends,” said Gross.  The attached market has seen sales prices increase nearly 70% this year. Even the once problematic condo market is beginning to recover strongly.

Total finished lot supply has retreated considerably over the past year and lot deliveries have remained slow. Months of supply has decreased to 18.6 which is 58% lower than 1Q13. The net absorption of lots highlights the dearth of deliveries as we are depleting the supply. “The overall supply of finished SFD lots is declining and development opportunities for delivery in the next 4 years must be considered today. With only 9,568 SFD lots and only about 9,000 lots under development, immediate production capacity is still healthy for the next year, however the last time we had this few finished lots was 2002,” said Gross.

“Through February 2012, builders pulled 6,655 Single Family permits over the past 12 months. Compared to 3,908 during the same period of 2012; an increase of 70%. Builder confidence in the market continues to strengthen as the market is at 2008 levels. The new normal will be steady absorptions, increased construction costs and a tightened labor supply. However, a thorough understanding of competitive framework, buyer segmentation and conducting crucial strategic planning will be vital for success. Future projects are beginning to be re-evaluated and the rush will be on to get some of the larger master-planned projects re-started, Kyle Canyon, Park Highlands, Inspirada and Lake Las Vegas to name a few, “said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 702-739-5855
email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.