(Naples, FL– May 4, 2012) The Naples/Ft. Myers housing market made small gains, but the trend toward recovery is clearly continuing during 1Q12. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The recent job growth in this quarter was much more solid than recent quarters. “Primary demand for housing units will grow as unemployment falls,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. As of February, the unemployment rate in Collier County was 8.3%, versus 10.2% a year earlier; the unemployment rate in Lee County was 9.4%, down from 11.4% a year earlier. Meanwhile, low prices will continue to attract retirees and workers with secure jobs.

Single-family housing starts in Lee and Collier combined rose from 390 during the fourth quarter of 2011 to 408 during the first quarter of 2012. Total housing inventory (the sum of units under construction, finished vacant units, and decorated models) fell another 8.8% from 1,096 at the end of the fourth quarter to 999 and the end of the first quarter. The level of finished, vacant inventory continued to fall, from 342 at the end of the fourth quarter, to 293 at the end of the first quarter. This represents only 2.0 months-of-supply at the current annual move-ins pace.

Separated by county:
Lee County: Housing starts rose a bit to 232 during the first quarter, from 224 during the fourth quarter. This pace has been fairly consistent over the last four quarters. There were 7,927 vacant developed lots in active subdivisions in Lee County at the end of the first quarter, down from 8,133 at the end of the fourth quarter.

Collier County: Starts rose slightly from 166 during the fourth quarter to 176 during the first quarter in 2012. Move-ins fell versus the fourth quarter, from 234 to 202, but still exceeded starts. The number of finished vacant homes fell once again, from 178 at the end of the fourth quarter, to 137 at the end of the first quarter. Total housing inventory was down from 559 to 533 as of the end of the first quarter.

“In certain submarkets, the recovery is clearly taking hold and sustaining its momentum. In others, things are static. As the economy continues to improve, demand will increase for primary housing, retiree housing, and vacation homes. There has been a distinct but modest increase in new foreclosure filings since last May or so, which was expected as the banks recovered from the ro-bo signing fiasco. Filings were markedly in Collier in February and March, and Lee in March,” said Hunter.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Naples, FL– January 24, 2012) The Naples/Ft. Myers housing market experienced a fall in construction, but a rise in home absorption during 4Q11. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

There was a dramatic improvement in job growth for the Naples/Ft. Meyers area in 4Q11. After losing jobs in huge numbers for most of 2010, this market is now adding jobs at a pace of over 4,000 per year. “Primary demand for housing units will grow as unemployment falls,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. “Meanwhile, low prices will continue to attract retirees and workers with secure jobs,” says Hunter.

Single-family housing starts fell from 479 in the third quarter of 2011 to only 383 in the fourth, a 20% drop. Total housing inventory fell from 1, 175 in the third quarter to 1,072 by year-end. Finished vacant inventory continued to drop sharply, from 358 at the end of 3Q11 to 343 at the end of the year. This level is down by 36% from a year ago.

Separated by county:
Lee County: Housing starts fell versus the third quarter, but are up 20% compared with 4Q10. The pace of new home absorption rose to 272 homes absorbed, up from 212 move-ins during the third quarter, but down compared to 4Q10.

Collier County: Starts fell sharply from 245 in 3Q11 to 165 in 4Q11. Move-ins rose to 233, which increased from 203. The number of finished vacant homes fell once again, from 182 at the end of 3Q11, to 179 at the end of the year. Total housing inventory also fell from 615 to 547 at year-end.

“There were a lot of surprises and twists in the Naples/Ft. Myers market in 2011. For one thing, not many people would have thought the top-selling community could be in Cape Coral. Sandoval, in Cape Coral had more starts than any other community in the two-county area. Also, it is surprising that several of the most active projects are in an upper-middle-class price range ($300,000-$400,000), and that is well to the right of the bell curve,” said Hunter.

For information contact:
Brad Hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email: bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

The public homebuilders are bidding against one another for lots and land in Lee and Collier Counties in Florida. Yes, that’s right…builders are looking to open new projects in one of the most famously overbuilt markets in the nation.

But look deeper and you see the true story.  While there is a 100-month supply of lots in that market,  if you take out the mothballed subdivisions and the lots that are in areas nobody will care about for another 5 years, then the figure drops to only 20 months of supply! (Footnote: this figure was obtained by calculating the months of supply in subdivisions that have done a minimum of 10 starts in the past year).

Also keep in mind that most of the foreclosures and most of the excess supply is in Lehigh Acres and the less fashionable parts of Cape Coral and Golden Gate along with excess in the condo segment and in certain townhome communities.

For single-family detached housing, however, the most active builders are often in the process of raising prices.

That explains why builders are willing to pay much higher prices for lots this year than they were last year. Several deals have just occurred in Naples/Ft. Myers at $1,200 per front foot, $1,400 per front foot, and even $2,000 per front foot and higher, on a takedown basis!

Look at the other bubble markets around the country, and the assessment is consistently similar. Some examples include:

• The supply of single-family lots in Las Vegas is 78 months, but this falls to 28 months when only the active subdivisions are considered!!
• The supply of single-family lots in Phoenix is 134 months, but only 35 months if the low-activity subdivisions are excluded.
• Atlanta is the most extreme example: 314 months of supply becomes 33!
• Southern California falls from 74 overall to 19 months if you exclude the low-activity neighborhoods.

A caveat: the purpose of re-calculating the months of supply in this manner is not to make an argument that these markets do not have an oversupply of lots, but rather to make the point that the overhang may not be as severe as it first seems especially in relationship to where your own parcel resides within the market. Clearly, when you restrict to subdivisions with a certain minimum level of construction activity, you automatically boost the denominator, assuring a much lower months-of-supply figure. That being said, the analysis is useful in drawing attention to the fact that lot supplies are running low in a lot of the more popular submarkets in the country.

Many of the large building companies need to increase production in order to make their business models work. The best way to boost volume is to open more stores. That means more demand for lots.

Add to that the fact that they are now low on spec home inventory in most markets in the country. This means that any new home demand warrants new construction in equal proportion.

Builders also see this as the perfect time to lock in land positions at attractive prices, and increase market share across their national footprint. The nationals are looking for the best locations, which means they are competing for the same locations. They often complain that there are shortages of lots, because the “excess” lots are viewed as being stranded in remote areas.

We have seen increasing number of success stories around the country, where builders have given mothballed subdivisions new life and increased their profits greatly in the process. As job growth improves, there will be more and more such success stories.

(Naples, FL– November 1, 2011) Foreclosures negatively affected the Naples/Ft. Myers housing market during 3Q11, although the housing market did see positive signs in starts and inventory levels. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“The labor market in Naples/Ft. Myers has seen little to no activity in 2011. Layoffs still exceed new hires, although the losses are minor at this point,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division.

Single family housing starts rose to 479, up 16% from a year ago. “This is the highest quarterly starts level in four years, and only the third time that quarterly starts exceeded quarterly move-ins since 3Q06,” said Hunter. Finished vacant inventory continues to drop steadily, and now there are only 354 units of standing inventory left. The current standing inventory represents 2.3 months of supply.

Separated by county:

Lee County: Starts rose slightly during 3Q11 to 234 from 2Q11’s 228, putting the number near where it was a year ago. Closings fell from 273 to 226. Finished vacant homes fell to 173 in 3Q11, from 184 in 2Q11 and 228 a year ago. Finished inventory is at a 2.1 month supply.

Collier County: Starts rose sharply to 245, the highest level since 4Q07. This is up from the 183 in 2Q11. The current finished vacant inventory level is 181 units, up from 178 in 2Q11. Finished vacant homes did not fall during 3Q11, although it is down significantly from the peak. The current level of standing inventory amounts to 2.6 months of supply. The Collier County market remains much higher priced than Lee County.

“Short sales and REO remain a substantial factor in depressing sales and prices of new product in both Lee and Collier. Although new foreclosure filings have fallen greatly over the last couple of years, there has been a small increase during 3Q11 in new fillings, and a small decrease in issuances of certificates of title,” said Hunter.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Naples, FL– August 1, 2011) The months-of-supply of finished vacant homes has fallen substantially in the Naples/Ft. Myers housing market, but the market remains sluggish, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

After gaining jobs for a brief period, the Lee and Collier market has been shedding jobs again for eight months as of May. Unemployment in May 2011 stood at 9.9% in Collier County, down from 10.9% a year earlier. Lee County unemployment stood at 10.8%, down from 12.1% the year prior.

Single Family starts in Naples/Ft. Myers rose to 401 during 2Q11, up from 361 last quarter. 391 homes closed during 2Q11, down from 547 last quarter. Finished vacant inventory dropped to 365, a 2.4-month supply. “This is the lowest level since the first quarter of 2006, and within the historic range for a healthy market,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division.

Separated by county:
Lee County: Starts rose slightly from 219 to 227 during 2Q11. Closings fell from 273 to 226. Finished vacant homes fell to 2.1 months of supply, the lowest since 1Q06. Total inventory remained the essentially the same at 520 units, a 5.9 month supply.

Collier County: Starts rose from 142 to 174 during 2Q11. Closings fell from 274 to 174. Finished vacant homes fell from 216 to 177, a 2.7 month supply, the lowest since 1Q06. Inventory rose slightly to 552 units, an 8.3 month supply, down from 12.1 months during 2Q10.

“Short sales and REO remain a substantial factor in depressing sales and prices of new product in both Lee and Collier. Although new foreclosure filings have fallen greatly over the last couple of years, we anticipate that the rate of foreclosure auctions will decrease again soon, at least temporarily, and that the backlog will grow once
again,” said Hunter.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Naples, FL– May 1, 2011) Unemployment is improving, as is housing inventory and the rate of construction in Lee and Collier County, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Single-family housing starts in Naples/Ft. Myers increased sharply in the first quarter of 2011, rising to 601, from 336 in the previous quarter. This rate of construction is almost double the year-ago rate of 341. Finished vacant inventory at the end of 1Q11 stands 433, down from 531 at the end of 4Q10. Total inventory is at 5.7 months of supply, below the normal level of 7-8 months.

“As unemployment falls, and household formation grows, there will be more demand for housing units,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division.

A summary by county:
Lee County: Starts during 1Q11 rose sharply from 178 to 218. Move-ins improved from 283 during 4Q10 to 534 in 1Q11, an 89% increase. Inventory is at 4.5 months of supply, down from 9.9 a year ago. “Low inventory and a small pipeline (521 homes) of homes reaching completion motivated builders to start more homes,” said Hunter. Lee County’s starts pace is the highest seen since 2007.

“Lee County’s inventory has improved tremendously, particularly in the ‘A’ locations, and the increase in housing starts is a direct result of that improvement,” Hunter said.

Collier County: Starts fell to 122 during 1Q11, from 159 during 4Q10. Move-ins rose from 204 during 4Q10 to 276 during 1Q11. Since move-ins outpaced starts, inventory dropped to 7.8 months of supply compared to 12.1 a year ago. “Certain economic measures are showing signs that a recovery is under way here, but the job picture is still lagging, as are personal incomes,” said Hunter.

“There is a renewed interest among developers and investors in re-marketing formerly failed projects,” Hunter said. “The Naples market’s appeal is still intact, and housing demand will come back strong once the economy gathers more momentum.”

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Naples, FL– February 1, 2011) Single family starts in Naples/Ft. Myer fell again, and move-ins rose slightly during 4Q10, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“Foreclosure activity remains a substantial factor in depressing the sales and prices for new product,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. “Although filings and issuances of certificates of title fell, it seems likely this is the result of banks needing better proof of ownership of the mortgage notes. This reduction is likely temporary.”

“However, the 3Q10 job gain seems promising,” said Hunter. In September, Lee and Collier counties saw the first job gain since May of 2007 with 1,600 jobs. Unemployment in November 2010 in Collier County was at 12.4%, up from 12.3% in November 2009. Lee county stood at 13.3%, down from 13.4% in November 2009.

Lee County: Housing starts fell during 4Q10 from 218 to 178. Move-ins remained the same during each quarter of 2010, hovering around the 4Q10 number of 269. Because move-ins exceeded starts, inventories fell to 553, the lowest number since 1993. “An encouraging sign is the number of finished vacant units at 2.7 months of supply,” said Hunter. “Although it was even lower during 2Q08 and 3Q08, it’s down from a peak of 5.1 months 4Q09.”

Collier County: Housing starts fell from 200 to 153 during 4Q10. Move-ins rose from 160 to 204, exceeding starts and lowering inventory. Finished vacant homes rose to 328. “Although 328 is the highest level in 2010, it is the same number of finished vacant homes as 2001,” said Hunter.

“As unemployment falls, and household formation grows, there will be more demand for housing units,” said Hunter.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Naples, FL– November 1, 2010) Starts slowed and unemployment remains high during 3Q10 in South Florida, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“Unemployment remains the primary problem with the national economy, and low demand levels remain the primary problem with the housing industry,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. As of August, year-over-year job losses in this market were reported to be 400. “Job creation hasn’t been ‘good’ since May of 2007,” said Hunter.

The unemployment level in Collier County was 13.6% in August, up from 13.2% a month earlier and a year earlier. Lee County’s numbers are about the same: 13.7% in August, up from 13.3% in July and 13.4% in August of 2009.

Some county by county 3Q10 housing data:

Lee County: Housing starts fell from 290 during 2Q10 to 212 during 3Q10. Move-ins rose slightly from 255 to 265. Inventories improved to 226 finished vacant units from 291 during 2Q10. Total new home inventory stands at 642, the lowest since 1993.

Collier County: Starts rose from 155 during 2Q10 to 199 during 3Q10, the highest pace since 1Q08. Move-ins rose from 157 to 162 during 3Q10. Inventory of finished vacant homes rose from 285 to 307.

“Foreclosure activity in the Naples/Ft. Myers market remains a substantial factor in depressing sales and prices for new product,” said Hunter. In both counties, the pace of issuances of certificates of title into lenders has roughly reached the levels of new foreclosure suit filings. In August, Lee County had roughly 815 new foreclosure suits, and 815 certificates of title into lenders. In Collier County, there were roughly 398 new foreclosure filings, and 355 certificates of title issued to lenders, which was a new high.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Naples, FL– August 1, 2010) Single-family housing starts in Naples/Ft. Myers surged in 2Q10, almost wholly within Lee County, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction  in the U.S. Housing market.

“The housing recovery is still tentative, and has been limited to a few projects and builders so far,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. “Although there was an increase in the second quarter, aggregate demand for new homes is still very low.”

Read the rest of this entry »

(West Palm Beach, FL – Feb. 2, 2010) Metrostudy’s fourth-quarter survey of new-home construction showed a slight improvement in market conditions in Collier and Lee counties, as inventories of new homes fell slightly, and the pace of move-ins once again exceeded the pace of new starts, said Bradley F. Hunter, who directs Metrostudy’s market research operations in Southwest Florida.

Read the rest of this entry »