Metrostudy Florida Markets: All Florida markets witnessed year-over-year price growth in 2Q14

Posted in Central Florida Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-11-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

FINAL 2Q Florida Release and Infographic_Page_01

 

Florida’s new-home market has been surprisingly resilient in coming out of the downturn. Despite massive numbers of foreclosure homes for sale all around the state, builders have managed to find increasing numbers of buyers, and starts activity has rebounded nicely. Prices moved up rapidly in 2011, 2012, and 2013, rising at a more moderate pace in 2014.

2q chart

 

 

Florida Market-by-Market

Tampa:

The Tampa market continues its slow recovery from the devastating recession. Home starts fell by 85% from the peak to the bottom. While some broad based indicators remain positive, like job growth and the local unemployment rate, they have not resulted in robust demand for new housing. As of mid-2014, the Tampa annual pace for new housing starts was 5,853 units.

While this was a 69% improvement from the 3,462 homes built in 2009, it represents just 26% of the peak starts (22,409 units for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006). Families that lost their homes by foreclosure, have difficulty in qualifying for a mortgage or can’t afford the rising new home prices have driven a greater portion of housing demand into rental apartments.

Tampa Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,510 $241,924 $102.29
3Q13 1,484 $251,058 $104.96
4Q13 1,642 $264,895 $107.68
1Q14 1,108 $272,419 $106.33
2Q14 1,304 $276,138 $106.82

 

Over the last year, single family detached home prices are up 12.7% for the five county Tampa market. Homes that closed during the second quarter of 2014 had an average price of $288,006 versus $255,491 in 2Q13. Not only are prices rising, but the average home size is growing. The 2Q closing records showed the average detached single-family home was 2,738 SF, up 227 SF over the 2Q13 average of 2,511 SF. During the second quarter of 2014, both home size and price were essentially flat.

We have seen prices also rise substantially over the last year in townhome and villa product. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $210,243 or 11.9% higher than the $187,881 average in
2Q13. Unlike the detached product, the average size of attached product is shrinking.

Tampa is a highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for 60% of all annual housing starts in the second quarter of 2014. The list of top builders includes nine national builders and just one local builder. Lennar Homes dominates the list and built more homes than builders #2, 3 and 4 combined.

 

Tampa,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
LennarHomes    1,100
DR Horton 409
Pulte Group 343
M/IHomes 314
TaylorMorrison 280
HomesbyWestBay 262
Standard Pacific Homes 235
BeazerHomes 213
Ryland Homes 189
K.Hovnanian 185
TOTAL 3,530

Sarasota:

The Sarasota market is less reliant upon job growth to create housing demand as the market has a strong reputation for retiree demand. That did not mean that Sarasota was immune to the recession. New home starts fell by 86% from 9,113 for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006 to 1,284 units built in 2009. Sarasota has recovered quicker than other Florida markets and as of June 30, 2014, the annual start pace was 3,839 homes (up 199% from the cyclical low).

As the recovery has taken hold, new home prices are rising. In fact, single-family detached homes sold for an average of $310,266 during 2Q14. This was a 22.5% increase over the $253,285 average price in 2Q13. A portion of the price increase was directly attributable to larger homes being bought. The average new home was 2,368 SF in 2Q14 versus 2,076 SF in 2Q13. Buyers are looking for a fourth bedroom or home office particularly in Manatee County.

Sarasota Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 707 $247,643 $123.57
3Q13 827 $259,779 $126.41
4Q13 937 $284,759 $131.04
1Q14 677 $248,670 $130.09
2Q14 637 $295,825 $130.49

 

For town-home and villa product, prices have not changed over the last twelve months. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $224,293 or just 0.9% higher than the $222,364 average in
2Q13. The data does show that the average size of attached product grew to 1,765 SF. For the prior four quarters the average product size was between 1,597 and 1,680 SF.

Sarasota is a very highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for
72% of all annual housing starts in 2Q14. The list includes seven national builders and three local/regional builders. The list is led by Neal Communities with 627 recorded closings, over one and a half time larger than #2 Pulte Group.

 

Sarasota,
August 1,2013- July 31,2014

Builder Closings
Neal Communities 627
Pulte Group 401
LennarHomes 374
DR Horton 355
TaylorMorrison 349
Ryland Homes 211
WCI Communities 175
Medallion Homes 116
Maronda Homes 109
M/IHomes 72
TOTAL 2,789

 

Southwest Florida:

Southwest Florida’s housing market has recovered nicely from the depths of the Great Recession, and closings were up 31% in 2Q14 over 2Q13. In fact, Metrostudy ranked the Cape Coral Ft. Myers MSA third and the Naples – Marco Island MSA sixth in last month’s “Top Ten Outlook and Market Health Ranking.”

SW Florida Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 611 $384,869 $171.12
3Q13 725 $390,281 $177.32
4Q13 891 $429,191 $188.42
1Q14 728 $434,339 $185.36
2Q14 800 $428,685 $173.00

 

During this same period, the average sales price was up 11%, and the size of the home increased by 10%. In particular, Naples showed a significant jump in pricing and home size, with a $75,000 average increase in pricing, to an average of $543,307, and an over 400 square foot increase (19%) in home size, to an average of 2,744.

However, the price per square foot in Southwest Florida only increased 1% from 2Q13. This may be an anomaly for the current quarter, as price per square foot prices had risen from an average of $171/sf in 2Q13 to over $185/sf in 1Q14. Or, it may reflect a developing trend with builders offering larger homes to offset the increase in sales prices. Metrostudy will monitor this metric to see if a trend emerges one way or the other.

 

Cape Coral-Ft Myers, Naples-Imokalee-Marco Island,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
Lennar 943
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 401
DR Horton 374
Stockdevelopment LLC 355
WCI communities 349
Gl Homes 251
TaylorMorrison 175
Habitat for Humanity 116
Toll Brothers 109
MintoBuilders 72
TOTAL 3,145

 

The Treasure Coast:

As with Southwest Florida, the Treasure Coast has seen a big recovery from the lows of the market back in 2010, and closings are up 36% the second quarter this year over the 2Q13. Home prices are among the most affordable in South Florida. However, prices continue to rise, with the average up 16% to $294,131. The average size of the home increased from 2,285 to 2,443, a 7% jump. Pricing per square foot is the lowest of all three areas, and at only $120/sf, represents a true bargain for South Florida home shoppers. It’s still relatively easy to find a new single family detached home selling for under $200,000 on the Treasure Coast. Nevertheless, the price per square foot increased 8% during this period, so the trend is moving upward.

 

Treasure Coast Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 190 $253,921 $111.12
3Q13 223 $283,141 $115.23
4Q13 259 $294,108 $116.20
1Q14 208 $288,007 $116.22
2Q14 258 $294,131 $120.38

 

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder                   Closings
DR Horton 280
KolterCommunities Florida LLC 199
AdamsHomes 126
AV Homes, Inc. 96
GHO Homes 82
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 60
Maronda Homes 59
MintoBuilders 59
KB Homes 45
HabitatForHumanity 32
TOTAL 1,038

 

Miami- Ft. Lauderdale:
South Florida is the most populous area with approximately 6 million residents. The Miami – Ft. Lauderdale MSA also placed in our Top Ten Ranking at ninth overall.

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,033 $296,665 $154.40
3Q13 1,256 $377,697 $147.25
4Q13 1,331 $417,954 $154.28
1Q14 988 $425,785 $161.90
2Q14 994 $469,107 $171.46

 

Somewhat surprisingly, the closing rate declined by 4% in the current quarter when compared to
2Q13. This is also reflected in the annualized starts rate, which declined in 2Q14 as well. We are seeing the effects of a slight tempering in demand due to the relatively high sales prices and supply constraints caused by lot and labor shortages, which are noticeable in all three of the MSA’s counties.

Those price increases are on par with Naples, with a similar $75,000 jump in the average sales price, to $469,107. The increase in home size was more modest, at only 7% to 2,736. However, the overall size is one of the largest home sizes in all of South Florida; quite similar to Naples. South Florida also saw the largest increase in price per square foot during this period, rising from
$154/sf to $171/sf, or 11%.

In summary, prices continue to rise, although at a more modest pace, particularly in the past couple of quarters. Homes are getting bigger again, and we are likely to set another record for new home size in 2014. While home appreciation is likely to continue, there’s always the concern that higher prices will crimp demand. Supply constraints, especially in South Florida, might mask a muting in demand, but the other two areas could feel the pinch should prices rise beyond what consumers deem as reasonable.

 

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder              Closings
Lennar 1,450
Gl Homes 630
DR Horton 397
CC Devco Homes 316
Standard PacificHomes 304
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 265
Encore Homebuilders 240
MintoBuilders 226
Toll Brothers 219
TerraGroup 143
  TOTAL       5,640  

 

Jacksonville:

The Jacksonville MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $35,000, or 14% in the 2Q14 when compared to the second quarter of 2013. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Jacksonville Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,122 $249,530 $102.12
3Q13 1,143 $259,474 $103.23
4Q13 1,184 $255,260 $104.84
1Q14 1,165 $272,197 $106.74
2Q14 1,297 $284,114 $109.67

 

Even with this pricing growth the market’s quarterly closing rate increased by over 15% in 2Q14 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 600 units in the 4Q11, to 1,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed between 1,300 and 1,400 units per quarter since.

This indicates the market has reached a point where pricing growth has curbed demand. With the strongest market areas being in northern St. Johns County, it is likely the demand for lower priced housing will push demand out of the urban core. We expect to see stronger growth in new housing construction further south in St. Johns county, as well as in Clay and northern and western Duval County over the coming quarters.

 

Jacksonville,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder             Closings
DR Horton 1,046
DreamFindersHomes LLC (Fl) 384
Lennar 373
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 317
Kb Home 292
Richmond AmericanHomes-MDC 281
Mattamy Homes 251
DavidWeekleyHomes 245
Standard PacificHomes 152
Providence Homes(Fl) 146
TOTAL 3,236

 

Orlando:

The Orlando MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $40,000, or 15% in the 2Q14 when compared to the 2Q13. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Orlando Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,855 $259,978 $109.05
3Q13 1,949 $274,837 $110.84
4Q13 2,088 $290,887 $112.50
1Q14 1,699 $290,197 $112.53
2Q14 1,757 $299,460 $116.71

 

Not surprisingly, the market has felt this pricing pressure as the quarterly closing rate declined by
5% in the second quarter of 2014 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 1,000 units in the 2Q11, to 2,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed in the mid-2,000 range since.

What this ultimately means is that demand will be reduced in the urban core, and increase in the outlying areas as buyers look to find, and builders work to produce more affordable product. Orlando has a mix of buyers with significant international and active adult markets, yet remains primarily a Leisure and Resort Service and Retail Trade job market, catering to first time, first time move-up and multi-generational home buyers.

 

Orlando,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder               Closings
Lennar 922
DR Horton 852
Meritage Homes 581
TheRyland Group,Inc. 484
Kb Home 416
M/IHomes 352
BeazerHomes 341
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 299
TaylorMorrison 299
Standard PacificHomes 287
TOTAL 4,833

 

Florida is not just one market, clearly. Activity levels and pricing power vary from one market to the next, but the entire state is set for growing demand over the next five years. From the Millennials to the Boomers, an even greater influx of residents is coming to the state. Demand from retirees is expected to be a palpable force as 10 million more people reach retirement age in the U.S. over the next 5 years. Generation Y is so far showing a tendency to rent, but that will start to change as more of them start families.

For information contact:
Danielle Fiore
813-443-6504
dfiore@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com
About Hanley Wood
Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Growth Won’t Stop, Even as The Market Moves to the Higher Price Ranges

Posted in Naples - Ft. Myers Market | Posted on 11-04-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • 3Q14 was the 13th consecutive quarter of growth in the annual starts pace
  • Quarterly starts rate in 3Q14 is up 40% from 3Q13
  • Supply is not entering the market at the lower price points; strongest growth is in the $300k+ segments which are up 38% YoY

November 2014: Metrostudy’s 3Q14 survey of the Naples/Ft. Myers housing market showed the thirteenth consecutive quarter of growth in the annual starts pace. The annual starts rate increased 10%, to 3,952 over the previous quarter, and is up 25% from the third quarter of 2013. The quarterly starts rate in Naples/Ft. Myers rose 20% to 1,250 over the previous quarter, and was up 40% when compared to the third quarter of 2013.

The annual closing rate was up 13% from a year ago, which extends this upward trend to ten consecutive quarters. Both Lee and Collier’s F/V supply ticked up last quarter, at 1.7 and 2.7 months of supply (MOS) respectively. The previous quarter’s F/V MOS was 0.9 for Lee and 2.0 for Collier.

Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory declined by 2% over the previous quarter, to 11,482 lots. However, lot deliveries were up by 80% year over year, to 1,017 in the current quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarter where lot deliveries topped 1,000 units, and is slightly above the quarterly start pace during this period.

Annual Starts by Price Range

dc3q

“As in other parts of the state, we are seeing the highest rates of growth for starts in the $300-399k price range, which are up 25% since 3Q13,” said David Cobb, Director of Metrostudy’s Naples/Fort Myers region.  “Starts under $150k are practically non-existent, which is putting a squeeze on the first-time or entry level buyer.  We are seeing consistent strength in the higher price ranges.“

Listed below are the top 10 communities in the Naples/Ft. Myers market, ranked by annual starts:

Rank  Community                                     Starts                         Move-Ins

1          Riverstone (Collier)                     229                             172

2          Ave Maria (Collier)                       215                             118

3          Preserve at Corkscrew (Lee)   198                             171

4          Pelican Preserve (Lee)               155                             137

5          Plantation (Lee)                            154                             141

6          Moody River Estates (Lee)       131                             93

7          VillageWalk of Bonita (Lee)     130                             132

8          VeronaWalk (Collier)                  129                             115

9          Lely Resort (Collier)                    121                             64

10       Reflection Isles (Lee)                  102                             102

 

As before, GL Homes, Pulte/DiVosta/Del Webb, and WCI are the market leaders in Southwest Florida this quarter. Riverstone by GL Homes continues as the current starts leader. Multi-builder Ave Maria moves up the list to second place, and WCI’s active-adult Pelican Preserve remains a top five contender. Pulte/DiVosta/Del Webb’s Ave Maria, Plantation, VillageWalk and VeronaWalk continue with their sales successes. Moody River by D.R. Horton, Lely Resort by Stock Development, and Reflection Isles by Lennar round out the Top 10.

Separated by County:

Lee County: Quarterly starts were up 20% and quarterly closings were down 6% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate is up 23% and annual closings are up 15% from one year ago.  Housing Inventory remains below equilibrium in Lee County at eight months of supply. Nine months of supply (MOS) is considered normal. The supply of VDL inventory declined 2.7% quarter-over-quarter to 6,829, which is 39 months of supply. There were 461 lot deliveries in the quarter. Future lot inventory ticked up 1% in 3Q14, at 49,229.

Collier County: Quarterly starts rose 20%, while quarterly closings dropped 20% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate is up 28%, and annual closings are up 11% from a year ago. The annual starts rate has risen for twenty-one consecutive quarters, from a low of 399 in early 2009, to 1,860 in the current quarter.  Housing Inventory has climbed above equilibrium at twelve MOS. A portion of this is due to labor constraints in the market, which is increasing construction cycle times. VDL inventory rose 1% quarter-over-quarter to 4,577, a 29 month supply. Lot deliveries remained robust at 556 for the quarter, while future lot inventory declined 2% this quarter, to 23,277.

While starts growth is expected to continue in a positive direction, we now see new home prices beginning to match what they were in 2004, just before the housing market meltdown.  It’s likely that price appreciation will trend to a more modest level, perhaps at the typical average of 3% per year.

For information contact:
David Cobb –  813-443-6504
dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Naples Metrostudy 2Q14 Survey: Strong Employment Growth Continues to Fuel Housing Demand

Posted in Naples - Ft. Myers Market | Posted on 08-22-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

August 2014: Metrostudy has released results from its 2Q14 survey of the Naples/Fort Myers housing market, and for the twelfth consecutive quarter we have seen an increase in the annual starts rate. The quarterly starts rate in Naples/Ft. Myers rose 15% to 1,032, and was up 14% when compared to the second quarter of 2013. The annual starts rate increased only 1.4% to 3,511 over the previous quarter, but is up 21% from the second quarter of 2013.  The annual pace has slowed a bit when compared to previous quarters, so we may be seeing a leveling out of starts in Southwest Florida, as we have in South Florida.  Price increases and lot/labor shortages may be beginning to take their toll on the growth rate of starts.

naples 2q

The annual closing rate was up 25% from a year ago, which extends this upward trend to nine consecutive quarters. Finished, vacant home supply continues to be constrained. Lee’s supply increased slightly from 0.7 months of supply last quarter to a 0.9 months supply. Collier’s rate increased from 1.6 months of supply to 1.9 months of supply. Labor and lot constraints have prevented builders from creating an oversupply of homes.

“Both of these rates are well under the three months of supply that Metrostudy considers the high end of normal,” said David Cobb, Regional Director for Metrostudy’s Naples Market. “With 47 consecutive months of job growth in the state, we are continuing to see tremendous demand for new product.  Almost every home under construction has been sold.”

This finished-vacant months-of-supply metric is the number of finished-vacant homes divided by the number of move-ins over the last four quarters, then multiplied by twelve. Metrostudy has observed over the years that when this number rises above 3.0 and stays there, builders tend to reduce prices or make concessions, so this indicator is closely observed each quarter for emerging trends.

Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory remained flat at 11,660 lots in the second quarter. This represents 39 months-of-supply, down from 91 months-of-supply recorded two years ago in the second quarter of 2012. VDL months-of-supply is calculated by dividing the number of developed lots by the current annual starts pace, and then multiplying by twelve.

Below are the top 10 communities in the Naples/Ft. Myers market, ranked by annual starts:

Rank Community

1       Riverstone (Collier)

2       Preserve Corkscrew (Lee)

3       Ave Maria (Collier)

4       Pelican Preserve (Lee)

5       VillageWalk Bonita (Lee)

6       VeronaWalk (Collier)

7       Plantation (Lee)

8       Bonita Isles (Lee)

9       Reflection Isles (Lee)

10     Moody River Estates (Lee)

“GL Homes, Pulte, Lennar, and WCI are the market leaders in Southwest Florida this quarter,” says Cobb. “Riverstone by GL Homes continues to impress as the overall market leader, while Preserve at Corkscrew by Pulte and Lennar is nearing build-out after a very successful run. Ave Maria moves up the list again to third place, and WCI’s active-adult Pelican Preserve remains a top five contender. DiVosta’s VillageWalk and VeronaWalk continue to see sales successes as well.”  Plantation by Pulte, Bonita Isles by Minto, Reflection Isles by Lennar, and Moody River Estates by DR Horton round out the top ten.

Separated by County:

Lee County: Quarterly starts were up 21%, while quarterly closings were down 16% from 1Q14. The annual starts rate is up 13%to 1,808, and annual closings are up 29% from one year ago. Housing Inventory remains well below normal. Nine months of supply (MOS) is considered normal, but Lee’s housing MOS is the lowest in Metrostudy’s eight-county South Florida Region at only 5.6 MOS. The supply of VDL inventory declined 3% quarter- over-quarter to 6,899, a 44 month supply. There were 321 lot deliveries in the quarter. Future lot inventory remains stable at 48,766.

Collier County: Quarterly starts in the second quarter rose 11%, while quarterly closings jumped 28% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate is up 13%, and annual closings are up 21% from a year ago. The annual starts rate has risen for twenty consecutive quarters, from a low of 399 in early 2009, to 1,703 in the current quarter.

Housing Inventory is slightly above normal at 10.1 MOS. VDL inventory rose 4% quarter-over-quarter to 4,685, a 33-month supply. There were 669 lot deliveries in the quarter, and future lot inventory declined 3%, to 23,058.

In both Lee and Collier counties, future lot supply remains sufficient in the near term, as there are over 11,000 lots under development in the two counties.

For now, it’s steady as she goes in Southwest Florida.  Mortgage rates remain low, inventory is below equilibrium, job growth is positive, and the cities of Fort Myers and Naples continue to be a desirable place to live.

For information contact: David Cobb @ 813-443-6504
Email dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

 

Housing starts up strong, with some stand-out markets

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Charlotte Market, Inland Empire Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Reno Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market | Posted on 08-19-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

See Top 10 Markets for New Residential  Construction Here 

brad hHousing starts numbers out today surprised many observers with its strength (+15.7%), but we find it to have been in line with our actual counts, released earlier this month. As we predicted, last month’s Census estimate was revised upward, and now the numbers are back in line with the trends revealed by the Metrostudy roll-ups.

The last release of housing starts data from the Census Bureau caused undue alarm about a collapse of activity in the South.  The Census release had shown a 29.6% decline for total starts in the South, but as we pointed out at the time, this exaggerated the weakness in the south. As a matter of fact Metrostudy’s research shows that several markets in the south are up, both based on prior quarter results, and year ago. Raleigh was down 5% versus a year ago, but Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, and South Florida showed increases.

Metrostudy’s data show that some of the most “beaten-down” markets are now doing better.  In Las Vegas, for example, housing starts were up 16% from 1st quarter 2014 to 2nd quarter 2014, and Phoenix showed a 12.3% increase quarter-on-quarter (though it is still down sharply year-on-year). Housing starts in Chicago were up 87% quarter-on-quarter, and up 30% year-on-year.  Naples Florida showed double-digit gains, both quarterly and annually.

Some significant trends were evident in Metrostudy’s data in California. Housing starts in the Riverside area rose 48.5% quarter on quarter, and are up 14% year-on-year.

We are seeing an increase in lot development in Riverside as lot shortages around the I-15 Corridor have intensified. The Inland Empire is developing its own economy, with 3% job growth, meaning that is it is no longer just a bedroom community for L.A.

Housing starts in Northern California rose 92% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, and are up 19% year-on-year. Starts there are at a record high since the boom. Contra Costa and Alameda County had particularly strong increases.

Also see, Brad Hunter discuss the promising increases in the Residential Remodeling Index and New Residential Construction this month on Bloomberg TV.

 

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts

 

 

 

 

Harry Potter Casts a Spell on Florida’s Economy

Posted in Central Florida Market, In The News, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

anthony cJune 5 (Bloomberg) –Florida’s employment picture has improved faster than any other state since the financial crisis — and some Floridians says that’s because Harry Potter has been working his wizardry in their state.

Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports from Orlando.

See full interview here

Metrostudy Regional Director – Anthony Crocco

Building the Case for Active Adult on the Treasure Coast

Posted in Central Florida Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by David Cobb

There’s always a discussion when an active adult oriented community is planned as to whether it should be age restricted (55+ only) or age targeted. One argument holds that an age restricted community is still preferred by older buyers, who simply don’t want children permanently in their neighborhood. This will attract enough buyers to meet the absorptions expected by the builder, so the argument goes. The other argument is that with careful planning of the community and the right product, you’ll get buyers of all ages, including the active adult purchaser. Both are probably winning strategies as there are many success stories of each type, but there’s no question that the age-restricted active adult community is still popular. Read the rest of this entry »

Naples – Ft. Myers Housing Market Metrostudy 1Q14 Survey Results: Solid Growth in 1Q14; Prices Trending Up – Lots Growing Scarce

Posted in Naples - Ft. Myers Market | Posted on 05-07-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 7, 2014: Metrostudy’s 1Q14 survey of the Naples/Fort Myers housing market showed solid growth, with starts up 11% quarter- over-quarter to 818, and up a solid 21% over the first quarter of 2013. The annual starts rate increased 4% from last quarter, and is up 27% from the first quarter of 2013. The annual starts rate has increased for eleven consecutive quarters in Southwest Florida.

“Finished, vacant home supply continues to be virtually non-existent,” said David Cobb, Metrostudy’s Regional Director in the Naples Market. “Lee County has only a 0.7 month’s supply, while Collier remains below equilibrium as well at 1.7 months of supply. As in the previous quarter, this is a reflection that almost every home under construction has been sold.”

As with the rest of Florida, job growth continues its positive trend in Southwest Florida. The unemployment rates in Lee and Collier are both below the state and national average, at 6.0% and 5.5% respectively.

GL Homes, Pulte, and Lennar remain the leading builders in Southwest Florida. Riverstone, Pelican Preserve, and VillageWalk Bonita are the top three communities in the region, while Ave Maria jumps from 8th to 4th on the list. Verona Walk and Moody River Estates also make Metrostudy’s Top 10 list this quarter.

Metrostudy’s Naples/Ft. Myers market data cover all of the new housing activity in Lee and Collier Counties, excluding scattered lot subdivisions such as Lehigh Acres. Included in these data are single family detached homes, townhomes, and duplexes.

Separated by County:

Lee County: Starts and completion activity fell from the previous quarter. Annual starts are up 20% and annual move-ins are up 39% year over year, however. “Note that Lee County’s price distribution continued to trend towards a higher price point,” said Cobb. “Gains are noted in all price ranges above $200,000, with notable increases in the over $400,000 price point. The price of land, labor and material costs are all contributing to this upward trend in prices.”

Lot deliveries improved to 381 in the first quarter, up 29% from last year. There are 6,902 vacant developed lots, down 5% from a year ago. In addition to the developed lots, there are plans for 48,012 future lots. Many of these lots lie in the northern and eastern sections of the county, where development has been slow to recover.

Collier County: Starts in the first quarter jumped 36% from the previous quarter. The annual starts rate is also 36% higher than last year. The annual starts rate has risen for nineteen consecutive quarters, from a low of 399 in early 2009, to 1,624 in the current quarter. Completions rose 27% QoQ, and are up 45% from 1Q13.

“Builders report that the labor market remains tight, which in some cases is limiting the supply of new homes,” said Cobb. “The supply of vacant, developed lots declined 9% year over year to 4,496. The supply of vacant developed lots in “A” locations is extremely limited.”

For information contact: david cobb @ 239.220.7023
email dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Naples/Ft. Myers Starts Drop, Inventory Remains Tight

Posted in Naples - Ft. Myers Market | Posted on 02-05-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Naples, FL –February 5, 2014) Housing starts took a breather in the fourth quarter of 2013, although the start rate remained higher than one year ago. New home inventory dropped further to only 1.1 month’s supply, suggesting that very few finished new homes remain for sale.  Moreover, finished, developed lot inventory continued to decline, reaching its lowest level in years. Positive local job growth and a recovering national economy should permit the new home market to post additional gains in 2014.  This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Housing starts in Naples/Ft. Myers fell 20% quarter-over-quarter, mirroring the results found in the South Florida east coast market. In the fourth quarter, 712 homes were started, down from 894 in the third quarter. However, starts were 12% higher than during the fourth quarter of 2012. “The pause in sales activity in the latter half of 2013 can be attributed in part to the spike in interest rates, strong price escalation, and a drop in consumer confidence caused by the government shutdown in October,” said David Cobb, Metrostudy’s Regional director in the Naples Market

“A clear sign that the market is still healthy is found in the finished, vacant home data. Both Lee and Collier Counties have 1.1 months-of-supply of finished, vacant homes. This is a reflection that almost every home under construction has been sold,” said Cobb.

Vacant, developed lot inventory declined further to 11,227 lots in 4Q13. This is a drop to 42 months of supply, well off the peak of 164 months recorded in early 2009. “Although slightly above a normal level, this metric does not truly represent the finished lot situation in Southwest Florida, as many of these lots lie outside the core in fringe areas. All of the “A” lots in this market are under development, and they are being conveyed to end users at a rapid pace,” said Cobb.

Separated by County:

Lee County: Housing starts in Lee County subdivisions fell in 4Q13 by 10%, but starts are up 33% year-over-year.

“One trend worth noting is the annual starts by price range.  The supply of homes under $200,000 has dwindled, while big increases are noted in the $250,000 to $400,000 price range. Builders are finding it extremely difficult to deliver fee simple homes at affordable prices, due to the increases in land values and construction costs,” said Cobb.

One outcome of this will likely be a resurgence in the condo market, which has been stagnant for almost seven years.

Lot deliveries dropped to 102 in the fourth quarter, the fewest since 2Q 2012. There were 6,794 vacant developed lots, which is the lowest supply since 2006. At some point, the shift of activity must change from south Lee to the north, as the southern half of the county approaches build out.

In addition to the developed lots, there are plans for 48,519 future lots. Metrostudy will monitor the development and planning status of these lots as they are brought to market.

Collier County: Starts dropped 30% in the fourth quarter, but this was due in part to the huge starts rate posted in the third quarter. Third quarter starts were at the highest level since 2006. The annual starts rate is up 37% from a year ago.

“Builders have noted that the labor market remains tight, and this is reflected in the number of homes under construction, which has risen to 713. Cycle time in some communities has approached one year,” said Cobb.

The supply of vacant, developed lots is at 4,357, a drop of 10% y-o-y, and a 35.3 month’s supply. “A” locations are spoken for.

Retirement buyers are critical to this market, and they are sensitive to the changes in consumer confidence, so that indicator, which improved slightly in December, will bear monitoring.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.