Jason Brown, Metrostudy’s Director – Nashville Region will present the 1Q12 review of the Greater Nashville economy and housing market, along with insight into expectations for 2012.

The presentation will be held on May 23, 2012 at the Brentwood Library at 8109 Concord Road, Brentwood, TN 37027.

The meeting is for current subscribing clients of Metrostudy, however you are welcome to contact Jason Brown (615-349-2190) with any questions or if you would like to attend.

Rebuilding, reinventing, and revitalizing an already great community

During the course of any day the average American drives 34 miles per day.  Most of those miles tend to be to and from work, getting around town, picking up the kids, etc.  I would be willing to bet that most of those same drivers don’t think twice about the lakes, rivers, creeks, or tributaries that wind near those same roads and places to which they are traveling.  Today however, if you were to ask residents of Nashville and the surrounding areas, I’d be willing to bet that they DO think about those waterways; especially those who lived here 2 years ago.

On the night of April 30th, 2010 I was attending a fundraiser for the Autism Society of Middle TN (ASMT) in downtown Nashville on 3^rd Avenue.  We were wrapping up the evening around 11:00 pm and it was just beginning to rain.  After clearing out the venue, one of the other volunteers helping clean up made the statement, “Boy we’re lucky, we just beat the rain!”  We wouldn’t fully understand the magnitude of that statement until 3 days later.

It started raining that Friday night and didn’t stop until late Sunday evening.  The storm dumped 17 inches of rain, 13 inches coming in a span of only 36 hours.  Total rainfall was the highest amount in more than 140 years of recorded history.  Areas in and around Nashville were devastated.  Metro Nashville Planning and Codes department estimates that private property damages exceeded $2 Billion.  More tragic was the loss of 11 lives. Read the rest of this entry »

(Nashville, TN– April 27, 2012) The Nashville housing market saw improved job growth and inventory levels during 1Q12, both positive signs for 2012. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

At the end of February 2012, Tennessee had an 8.0% unemployment rate, with Nashville MSA at 7.1%, better than the national rate of 8.2%. “While there has been significant improvement in job formation nationally, it was still not enough to significantly reduce unemployment,” said Jason Brown, director of Metrostudy’s Nashville Region. “Nashville has seen 23 consecutive months of positive job creation.”

“The first quarter saw more starts than any previous quarter in the past 3 years,” said Brown. 853 homes were closed in the Nashville area in 1Q12. This was down compared to 4Q11, but up from 781 in 1Q11. Nashville recorded 1,021 starts in 1Q12, an increase of 41% from 4Q11. “With new home starts increasing, a good indicator that builders are exhibiting confidence in the market, the general consensus is the worst appears to be behind us and those in the industry are focused on the future,” said Brown.

Demand outpacing supply resulted in inventory reductions across the board. Nashville’s total inventory was flat from 1Q11 to 1Q12. Nashville’s finished home inventories are steadily approaching a healthy equilibrium (2.0 months) and their current level of 2.2 months of supply (659 units) is down from a high of 4.6 three years ago.

“With continued steady employment growth, increase in new home starts, the area’s lack of new home inventory, and new home values remaining stable, Nashville should expect to see an upward movement in the new home market through the remainder of 2012,” said Brown.

For information contact:
jason brown @ 615.349.2190
email jbrown@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Nashville, TN– February 3, 2012) The Nashville housing market saw improved job growth and inventory levels during 4Q11, both positive signs for 2012. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

At the end of November, Tennessee had a 9.1% unemployment rate, with Nashville MSA at 7.2%, better than the national rate of 8.5%. “Employment outlook in Nashville remains positive. Job growth has been steady, but at lower levels than hoped for,” said Jason Brown, director of Metrostudy’s Nashville Region. “The increasing health of the local and national economy will be a major factor to see improvement for the remainder of 2012.”

“Regarding new home production, pressure remains from the sale of existing homes and potential foreclosure issues,” said Brown. 1,011 homes were closed during 4Q11. This was flat compared to 3Q11, but up from 898 during 4Q10. Nashville recorded 730 starts in 4Q11, a decrease of 24% from 3Q11. “As inventory continues to dwindle, organic growth will begin to fuel resurgence in demand for new starts,” said Brown.

Demand outpacing supply resulted in inventory reductions across the board. Nashville’s finished home inventories are steadily approaching a healthy equilibrium (2.0 months) and their current level of 2.4 months of supply is down from a high of 4.9 two years ago.

“Healthy inventory levels and increasing consumer confidence will be key factors in a return to normalcy, and continued improvement in financial conditions will result in increasing liquidity,” said Brown.

For information contact:
Jason Brown @ 615.349.2190
email: jbrown@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

How many of you enjoyed more turkey and side dishes than you could stomach this past week?  If you were like most of America your eyes were probably bigger than your stomach.  After a few “healthy” portions of your favorites you likely retired to your couch or chair and you flipped on the NFL games or you flipped through the newspaper.  Advertisements touting the plethora of Black Friday deals to be had the following morning – or later that evening.  I followed that same pattern; watching the games and reading the paper.

When I finally dug myself out from under the paper I began to think about the enticement of Black Friday.  What drives all of these people towards the mall or online in such droves?  I mean, aren’t there really only 5 TVs available at Best Buy that fall into the “special advertised” price of $200?  Then I began to think about the Government tax credit given to buyers of new homes in the past year.  Was it the same type of perceived deal that provided a “Black Friday” period for the housing market?  Lots of buyers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but where did the buyer go after the deals were gone?

During this retail sales season we are inundated with how well retail sales are going.  CNBC had estimates of 5-7% increases this year over last year…and that was at noon on Friday.  We all know that retailers will still be moving product well after Thanksgiving weekend and the real increases will only hold if consumers continue to spend throughout the season – after the sales incentives are gone.

That same logic holds true for the hosing market.  We saw residential sales increase thru June 2010.  Then most buyers decided to stay out of the “housing mall” every month since.  We saw sales decrease thru June, when comparing 2011 sales to 2010 sales.  July and August we will chalk up to decreased demand after the tax credit, and only now in September and October have we began to see some year-over-year growth.  Are we finally starting to see a true reflection of demand showing in the housing market?  We are in Nashville.

Like the rest of the country, Nashville saw its share of demand during the tax credit period.  What is interesting is that demand, based on annual starts, increased by 5% and 7% in the under $150k and $150-224k price bands respectively during the tax credit period (see chart).

One year later those same price points lost 6% and 2% respectively.  Was there truly a demand at those price points or were consumers driven to those because of a government tax credit?  You will notice the following year saw the largest demand increase in the $300-$499k price band – 6% and the >$500k price band saw a 3% increase.  No tax credit incentives, just actual consumer demand.  The good news for Nashville is that the demand by price point is returning to a more normal, historic distribution.  The diversity of pricing is one of Nashville’s strengths, as is the location of the top selling subdivisions.  Looking at a map of Nashville you will notice the top 15 subdivision are well distributed throughout the Nashville market.

If that weren’t enough to be thankful for this Thanksgiving, let me give you my “Top 10 Reasons to be thankful about the Nashville Housing Market”.

Top 10 Reasons to be thankful about the Nashville Housing Market:

• Diverse price offerings and product types
• Well distributed successful subdivisions across the entire market
• Ranks in the top 20 best improving US job markets
• Didn’t experience drastic appreciation and depreciation in pricing
• Finished Vacant New housing inventory is decreasing
• Single Family Housing months of supply is approaching equilibrium
• Apartment Occupancy is the highest in 10 years
• Downtown Nashville remains a strong tourist destination
• Major job expansion at Nissan, GM, and Amazon
• Construction and manufacturing job sectors improving

For more information on the Nashville Market contact:
Jason Brown
615-349-2190
jbrown@metrostudy.com

(Nashville, TN– November 1, 2011) The Nashville housing market saw improved closings and inventory during 3Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

At the end of September, Tennessee had a 9.8% unemployment rate, with Nashville MSA at 8.5%, better than the national rate at the end of September of 9.1%. “Employment outlook in Nashville remains optimistic, the past 17 months have seen year over year positive job growth,” said Jason Brown, director of Metrostudy’s Nashville Region.

Nashville recorded 941 starts in 3Q11, only 3.9% more than 2Q11. “This was less robust than anticipated,” said Brown. 1005 homes were closed during 3Q11, up 264 units from 2Q11, a 35% increase.

Demand outpacing supply resulted in inventory reductions across the board. Nashville’s finished home inventories are steadily approaching a healthy equilibrium (2.0 months) and their current level of 2.9 months of supply is down from a high of 4.9 two years ago. “As inventory continues to dwindle, organic growth will begin to fuel resurgence in demand for new starts,” said Brown.

“The increasing health of the local and national economy will be a major factor to see improvement for the remainder of 2011,” said Brown. “Increasing consumer confidence will also be a key factor in a return to normalcy, and continued improvement in financial conditions will result in increasing liquidity.”

For information contact:
jason brown @ 615.349.2190
email jbrown@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Nashville, TN– August 1, 2011) The Nashville housing market remains active and continues to reduce inventory, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

At the end of May, Tennessee had a 9.7% unemployment rate, with Nashville MSA at 8.5%, better than the national rate at the end of June of 9.2%. “Nashville has consistently outperformed the national and state average,” said Jason Brown, director of Metrostudy’s Nashville Region. “The increasing health of the local and national economy will be a major factor for improvement for the remainder of 2011.”

Nashville recorded 890 starts in 2Q11, 37.5% more than the 648 starts in 1Q11. “This was more robust than anticipated,” said Brown. 741 homes were closed during 2Q11, down 35 units from 1Q11.

Year over year, inventory of homes was reduced by 416 units from 2Q10 to 2Q11. Finished vacant inventory was reduced by 408 units during this time. Nashville’s finished home inventories are steadily approaching a healthy equilibrium (2.0 months) and their current level of 2.8 months of supply is down from a high of 4.9 two years ago. “As inventory continues to dwindle, organic growth will begin to fuel resurgence in demand for new starts,” said Brown.

“As national and local economic conditions continue to improve the new single family housing market in Nashville will have strong foundations to build on,” said Brown.

For information contact:
jason brown @ 615.349.2190
email jbrown@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Nashville, TN– May 1, 2011) While employment and inventories improve in the Nashville market, starts and closings remain slow, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Tennessee currently has an unemployment rate of 9.5%, while the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) stood at 8.3% as of March 2011, lower than March 2011 national unemployment rate. “Employment outlook in Nashville remains optimistic, even as job growth pulled back slightly in March,” said Jason Brown, director of Metrostudy’s Nashville Region. “The increasing health of the local and national economy will be a major factor to see improvement in 2011.”

Closings in the Nashville area decreased 12.7% during 1Q11 compared to 4Q10 to 784 homes. Starts also decreased 5.8% quarter over quarter to 655 homes in 1Q11. “The first quarter was less robust than anticipated for all parties concerned in the housing industry,” said Brown. However, since closings outpaced starts, inventory was reduced and stood at 770 units less than a year ago at the end of 1Q11.

Nashville’s finished home inventories are steadily approaching a healthy equilibrium (2.0 months) and their current level of 2.8 months of supply is down from a high of 4.9 two years ago. “Builders continue to successfully sell their inventory. As inventory continues to dwindle, organic growth will begin to fuel resurgence in demand for new starts,” said Brown.

“The outlook for the Nashville area new home market remains guardedly optimistic,” said Brown. “Increasing consumer confidence will also be a key factor in a return to normalcy, and continued improvement in financial conditions will result in increasing liquidity.”

For information contact:
jason brown @ 615.349.2190
email jbrown@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Nashville, TN– February 1, 2011) Improving inventory levels and a positive employment outlook point to optimism for the Nashville housing market in 2011, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“Regarding unemployment levels, the Nashville MSA has consistently outperformed the National and State average,” said Jason Brown, director of Metrostudy’s Nashville Region. “The increasing health of the local and national economy will be a major factor to see improvement in 2011.” Nashville unemployment currently stands at 8.5%, while Tennessee and the US levels currently stand at 9.4%.

Home inventories stands at a 3.2 months of supply at the end of 2010, down from a high of 4.9 months of supply two years ago. Equilibrium is considered two months of supply. “Builders continue to successfully sell their existing inventory, creating more capital for future construction,” said Brown. “As inventory continues to dwindle, organic growth will begin to fuel resurgence in demand for new starts.”

Nashville recorded 697 starts in 4Q10, down 29.1% from 983 starts the previous quarter. However, for the year starts were up. During 2010, Nashville saw 3,485 starts, up 16.3% compared to 2,996 in 2009. Closings outpaced starts, as Nashville closed 901 homes in 4Q10. 4,017 homes were closed in 2010, compared to 4,395 homes in 2009.

“The Nashville housing market has remained active and continues to reduce inventory. As national and local economic conditions continue to improve the new single family housing market in Nashville will have strong foundations to build on,” said Brown.

For information contact:
jason brown @ 615.349.2190
email jbrown@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Nashville, TN– November 1, 2010) Job growth, steady resale home sales and healthier new home inventories point to optimism for Nashville, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) August unemployment rate of 8.8% has consistently outperformed the National and State average, which both currently stand at 9.6%, Also, the Health and Educational Services sector has increased its share of total employment by 2% over the past 2 years. “Nashville’s strength and reputation
as a healthcare capital will better position itself to benefit from the impact of the new healthcare laws,” said Jason Brown, director of Metrostudy’s Nashville Region.

Resale home sales have remained steady, but at lower levels than the 1st 6-months this year. Although third quarter sales are down 21 percent when compared to 3Q09, the year-to-date sales for 2010 are up approximately 3%. This puts months of supply at 10.4 months, where 6 months is considered healthy. “As the economic outlook improves, home values will see stability, and listings and closings will continue to experience improvement,” said Brown.

Regarding new homes, Nashville recorded 985 starts during 3Q10, a 10.8% increase from last quarter. Annual starts ending in September 2010 stand at 3,453, a 20.1% increase year over year from the 12 months ending in 2009. Nashville recorded 1,220 closings during 3Q10, a 10.5% increase from 2Q10. Since more homes were closed than were started, inventory was reduced by 687 units from 3Q09 to 3Q10. This represents 3 months of supply, down from 4.9 months a year ago. (Two months of supply is considered healthy.) “The third quarter was encouraging for all parties concerned in the housing industry,” said Brown.

For information contact:
jason brown @ 615.349.2190
email jbrown@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.