Rio Grande Valley Housing: Metrostudy 2Q14 Survey Results

Posted in Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 09-25-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

Metrostudy’s 2Q14 survey of the Rio Grande Valley housing market shows that the region continues to lag behind the rest of the state in terms of economic and housing activity.  The annual rate of new home construction in the Rio Grande Valley in 2Q14 is 1,850 starts, up 12%, from 2Q13.  The Rio Grande Valley had 430 starts in the 2nd quarter, up 18% over 2Q13.  The number of new home closings in the year ending 2Q14 was 1,874, up 190 units, or 11.3%, over the 2Q13 rate of 1,684. There were 470 closings in the 2nd quarter, up 39% over 2Q13.

It is worth noting that the top 58 subdivisions ranked by annual starts [in this group a minimum of 9 starts] garnered a 54% share of the 2Q14 annual rate of 1,850. The remaining 387 subdivisions generate the other 46% share of annual starts. In that regard, there were 280 subdivisions that had fewer than 4 starts, including 129 that showed no starts over the past year.

Even as the RGV continues to lag the growth in the state as a whole, the analysis shows that there has been steady growth, a much needed improvement over the last few years, just not extraordinary. Inventories are improving, prices are rising, and there is a good pocket of construction in the most active subdivision group.  For the near future, when observing the RGV housing market, the overall analysis will look somewhat mediocre while at the same time there will be a core group that generates more than 50% of all new home construction, holding tighter inventories and exhibiting better trends.

“There are still issues with excess housing inventories in both the new home and resale markets, in addition to the foreclosures that continue to dot the landscape,” said Inselmann. “Real recovery doesn’t expose itself until inventories are brought back in line with demand, and that still remains somewhere down the line. If recent history is the indicator, the future will be slow and methodical improving a little bit at a time, which at least is a good direction to be moving in.”

For information contact: jack inselmann @ 210.710.3635
Email jacki@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

 

Housing starts up strong, with some stand-out markets

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Charlotte Market, Inland Empire Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Reno Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market | Posted on 08-19-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

See Top 10 Markets for New Residential  Construction Here 

brad hHousing starts numbers out today surprised many observers with its strength (+15.7%), but we find it to have been in line with our actual counts, released earlier this month. As we predicted, last month’s Census estimate was revised upward, and now the numbers are back in line with the trends revealed by the Metrostudy roll-ups.

The last release of housing starts data from the Census Bureau caused undue alarm about a collapse of activity in the South.  The Census release had shown a 29.6% decline for total starts in the South, but as we pointed out at the time, this exaggerated the weakness in the south. As a matter of fact Metrostudy’s research shows that several markets in the south are up, both based on prior quarter results, and year ago. Raleigh was down 5% versus a year ago, but Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, and South Florida showed increases.

Metrostudy’s data show that some of the most “beaten-down” markets are now doing better.  In Las Vegas, for example, housing starts were up 16% from 1st quarter 2014 to 2nd quarter 2014, and Phoenix showed a 12.3% increase quarter-on-quarter (though it is still down sharply year-on-year). Housing starts in Chicago were up 87% quarter-on-quarter, and up 30% year-on-year.  Naples Florida showed double-digit gains, both quarterly and annually.

Some significant trends were evident in Metrostudy’s data in California. Housing starts in the Riverside area rose 48.5% quarter on quarter, and are up 14% year-on-year.

We are seeing an increase in lot development in Riverside as lot shortages around the I-15 Corridor have intensified. The Inland Empire is developing its own economy, with 3% job growth, meaning that is it is no longer just a bedroom community for L.A.

Housing starts in Northern California rose 92% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, and are up 19% year-on-year. Starts there are at a record high since the boom. Contra Costa and Alameda County had particularly strong increases.

Also see, Brad Hunter discuss the promising increases in the Residential Remodeling Index and New Residential Construction this month on Bloomberg TV.

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts

 

 

 

 

Rio Grande Valley Housing Market Metrostudy 1Q14 Survey Results: Rio Grande Valley Housing Market Production Declines in 2014

Posted in Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 8, 2014: The recovery and growth in the housing market continues throughout the major Texas MSAs through the first quarter of 2014. Strong demand fueled by excellent job growth generated robust construction levels as Texas continues to lead the country in new home starts and closings. Tight home inventories, tight developed lot supplies, rising prices and improving home values all indicate solid expectations the rest of the year.

In the Rio Grande Valley it is another story as the new home market not only struggles to grow but fights to just get to some semblance of stability. Metrostudy’s 1Q14 survey of new home construction in the Rio Grande Valley found that the annual rate of new home construction is down 4.3% from the annual rate at the end of 1Q13. The Rio Grande Valley had 379 starts in the 1st quarter, down 2.0% from 1Q13.

Metrostudy determines the rate of move-ins as closings by calculating the increase of occupied homes from one quarter to the next. In the Rio Grande Valley the number of new home closings in the year ending 1Q14 was 1,624, down 98 units, or -5.7%, from the 1Q13 rate of 1,722 There were 383 closings in the 1st quarter, down 13.5% from 1Q13.

In the 1st quarter of 2014 Metrostudy counted 15,863 vacant developed lots in the Rio Grande Valley market. Based on the current annual starts rate of 1,613, this lot total represents an 118.0 months of supply of lots, well above what is considered a healthy range. Despite this, there are various pockets of activity and communities in much better condition than the market as a whole.

“In the Rio Grande Valley, job growth works to maintain a 2-2.5% rate of growth which would allow improvement in the housing market that is now overwhelmed by excess home and lot inventories” said Jack Inselmann, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s The Rio Grande Valley. “Though job growth is average at best the region is growing its job base and the expectation is that will continue for the next few years. Total employment is better than pre-recession levels and there continues to be above average population growth. Employment growth is diverse across most sectors and leads to optimism in the short term. Economic development is the key to long term growth and subsequently improvement and expansion in the housing market.”

For information contact: jack inselmann @ 210.710.3635
Email jacki@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders,
developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Texas Counties Lead Nation in Relocation Activity; Texas a ‘Domestic Migration Destination’

Posted in Austin Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 10-24-2013 | Written by David Jarvis

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/01/tx-tex-assoc-of-realtors-idUSnBw015246a+100+BSW20131001

According to a report released by the Texas Association of Realtors, Texas, often referenced as a destination for immigration, is also a national leader in relocation activity.

According to the report, Texas experienced a net gain of households – with 10,326 more households moving into Texas than Texas households moving to other states. Bexar County experienced the largest net inflow in Texas and the fourth-largest net inflow of households (5,601) in the U.S., with six other Texas counties ranking within the top 20.

Harris County is the most mobile county in the Lone Star State, ranking No. 1 in Texas and No. 3 nationally for the largest inflow of households (67,299). Dallas and Tarrant counties are the second- and third-most mobile Texas counties, ranking No. 7 (54,388) and No. 16 (40,699) nationally for the largest inflow of households.

This report comes six months after U-Haul named Texas the No. 2 growth state for 2012 and Houston as the nation’s top relocation city with Austin as the third-most popular in its 2012 relocation report.

Tight Inventory, Price Increases and what’s Next?

Posted in Austin Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market | Posted on 06-05-2013 | Written by Brad Colliander

News reports during the last several weeks have highlighted that home prices are rising in the major Texas markets.  The price increases can be associated with increased demand for housing spurred by population growth, historically low interest rates and improving local economies.  With this increased demand for both new and resale homes, the supply of lots and homes has dropped below equilibrium levels.  Simple Supply and Demand economics teach us that as supply decreases, prices of remaining or replacement supply may increase.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Rio Grande Valley market maintains population growth if not housing growth in 2013

Posted in Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 05-21-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Rio Grande Valley, TX – May 21, 2013) The Rio Grande Valley continues to see population growth in the 2.5% range, increasing the demand for housing, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Rio Grande Valley MSA registered an annual job gain of 7,300 jobs in the year ending February 2013, a 2.0% rate. The benchmark results show a gain of 8,800 jobs (2.4%) in Year-2012, and 5,700 jobs (1.6%) in 2011. Job growth forecasts project the Rio Grande Valley to see job growth in the 2.3% range for 2013. “The local recovery has struggled to gain momentum in the past year though the revised job numbers show employment growth, namely in the sectors of transportation, and retail,” said Randall Allsup, Metrostudy’s regional director of San Antonio and Rio Grande Valley markets. The Rio Grande Valley unemployment rate as of February 2013 is 10.7%, which is down 0.5% from a year ago.

The annual rate of new home growth in the Rio Grande Valley as determined by Metrostudy’s first quarter survey is 1,773 starts. This annual rate of 1,773 is down 365 units, or 17.1%, from the 1Q12 rate of 2,019. “The expectation is that the decline is temporary as the short and long term prospects for the market are good with job growth forecasts for 2013 in the 2% range, and close proximity to a recovering Mexico,” said Allsup. The Rio Grande Valley had 412 starts in the first quarter, down 19.7% from the fourth quarter of 2012. In the Rio Grande Valley the number of new home closings in the year ending 1Q13 was 1,767 down 386 units, or 17.9%, from the 1Q12 rate of 2,153. There have been 458 closings in the 1st quarter, down 12.8% from 4Q12.

Metrostudy’s 1Q13 survey found the level of new home inventory to be high relative to the number of closings in the same period. There were a total of 1,368 homes in inventory at the end of 1Q13, which represents an 9.3 months of supply based on the annual closings rate. Metrostudy documented 685 homes under construction at the end of the first quarter, a decrease of 54 units when compared to 1Q12. “The months of supply of finished vacant units, is the key indicator of the health of housing inventory. When finished vacant inventory in the Rio Grande Valley market approaches approximately 3.0 months, builders are generally forced to begin to offer some concessions in order to move the inventory of unsold homes,” said Allsup.  The inventory of finished vacant units totaled 667 homes at the end of 1Q13, up 10% compared to the 1Q12 level of 609. Based on the closings rate for the first quarter, the current level of finished vacant inventory represents 4.5 months of supply.

“The Rio Grande Valley continues to see population growth. The increased demand for housing is currently being absorbed by an extremely tight rental market with occupancy levels over 95% and rents that continue to climb. The positive side to this is that climbing rents will help build demand for detached housing which has seen the sales pace in the resale market steady over the past few months and inventory levels are beginning to drop which will contribute to stabilizing home values, especially in more desirable areas,” said Allsup.

For information contact:
randall allsup @ 210.525.9549
email rallsup@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

Rio Grande Valley Economic Struggles Hinder Housing Recovery in 2012

Posted in Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 02-07-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(San Antonio, TX–February 7, 2013) Despite a presidential election, the fiscal cliff, and an averted Mayan apocalypse, the national economy continues the slow climb out of recession, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Rio Grande Valley registered an annual job loss of 2,200 jobs a -0.6% rate. The Rio Grande Valley registered an annual job gain of 9,200 jobs in 2011, a 2.6% rate, after showing a gain of 6,600 jobs in 2010. ”Job growth forecasts for 2012 projected the Rio Grande Valley to see little to no job growth in 2012 which proved to be true,” said Randall Allsup, director of Metrostudy’s Rio Grande Valley Region.

The annual rate of new home growth in the Rio Grande Valley as determined by Metrostudy’s fourth quarter survey is 1,847 starts. This annual rate of 1,847 is down 283 units, or 13.3%, from the 4Q11 rate of 2,130. The Rio Grande Valley had 517 starts in 4Q12, up 20.0% from 3Q12. In the Rio Grande Valley the number of new home closings in the year ending 4Q12 was 1,753 down 465 units, or 21.0%, from the 4Q11 rate of 2,218. There have been 529 closings in 4Q12, up 29% from 3Q12.

There were a total of 1,416 homes in inventory (Models, Finished Vacant and Under Construction) at the end of 4Q12, which represents an 9.7 months of supply based on the annual closings rate. Metrostudy documented 692 homes under construction at the end of 4Q12, a decrease of 72 units when compared to 4Q11. “When finished vacant inventory in the Rio Grande Valley market approaches approximately 3.0 months, builders are generally forced to begin to offer some concessions in order to move the inventory of unsold homes,” said Allsup. The inventory of finished vacant units totaled 713 homes at the end of 4Q12, up 31% compared to the 4Q11 level of 543. Based on the closings rate for the fourth quarter, the current level of finished vacant inventory represents 4.9 months of supply.

“The local recovery has regressed in 2012 as the Rio Grande Valley has seen employment declines in the past year, namely in the recently strong sectors of healthcare, transportation, and retail. This pause in local growth, coupled with continued tightness in the mortgage market, has made it difficult for the housing market to sustain its resurgence. The result is a new home market that has contracted 13% in the past year. The expectation is that the decline is temporary as the short and long term prospects for the market are good with a revival of the manufacturing market in Mexico and the reshoring of U.S. jobs as costs become more competitive internationally. The Rio Grande Valley continues to see population growth in the 1.5% range increasing the demand for housing that at the moment is being absorbed by an extremely tight rental market with occupancy levels over 95% and rents that continue to climb. The positive side to this is that climbing rents will help build demand for detached housing which has seen the sales pace in the resale market steady over the past few months and inventory levels are beginning to drop which will contribute to stabilizing home values, especially in more desirable areas,” said Allsup.

For information contact:
randall allsup @ 210.525.9549
email: rallsup@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data collected by a staff of 650, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Rio Grande Valley’s housing recovery backtracks in 3Q12

Posted in National Housing Market, Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 10-24-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(San Antonio, TX–October 24, 2012) The housing market is stabilizing in most major markets as new home inventories are shrinking which will provide a boost to the resale market and home appreciation rates, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Rio Grande Valley registered an annual job loss of 4,000 jobs in 3Q 2012, a -1.1% rate, after showing a gain of 9,200 jobs in 2011. ”Job growth forecasts for 2012 project the Rio Grande Valley to see little to no job growth in 2012,” said Randall Allsup, director of Metrostudy’s Rio Grande Valley Region. The Rio Grande Valley unemployment rate as of August 2012 is 11.4%, which is down 0.9% from a year ago.

The annual rate of new home growth in the Rio Grande Valley as determined by Metrostudy’s 3rd quarter survey is 1,873 starts. This annual rate of 1,873 is down 237 units, or 11.2%, from the 3Q11 rate of 2,110. The Rio Grande Valley had 355 starts in 3Q12, down 12.6% from 2Q12. In the Rio Grande Valley the number of new home closings in the year ending 3Q12 was 1,742 down 516 units, or 22.9%, from the 3Q11 rate of 2,258. There have been 367 closings in 3Q12, up 0.3% from 2Q12.

There were a total of 1,384 homes in inventory (Models, Finished Vacant and Under Construction) at the end of 3Q12, which represents an 9.5 months of supply based on the annual closings rate. Metrostudy documented 668 homes under construction at the end of 3Q12, a decrease of 24 units when compared to 3Q11. “The Rio Grande Valley market approaches approximately 3.0 months, builders are generally forced to begin to offer some concessions in order to move the inventory of unsold homes,” said Allsup. The inventory of finished vacant units totaled 701 homes at the end of 3Q12, up 29% compared to the 3Q11 level of 542. Based on the closings rate for the 3rd quarter, the current level of finished vacant inventory represents 4.8 months of supply.

“The local recovery has seemed to hit a snag recently as the Rio Grande Valley has seen employment declines in the past year, namely in the recently strong sectors of healthcare, transportation, and retail. This pause in local growth, coupled with continued tightness in the mortgage market, has made it difficult for the housing market to sustain its resurgence. The result is a new home market that has contracted 11% in the past year. The expectation is that the decline is temporary as the short and long term prospects for the market are good with a revival of the manufacturing market in Mexico and the reshoring of U.S. jobs as costs become more competitive internationally,” said Allsup.

For information contact:
randall allsup @ 210.525.9549
email rallsup@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data collected by a staff of 650, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

Rio Grande Valley’s housing market waits for rebound

Posted in In The News, Rio Grande Valley Market | Posted on 08-10-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(San Antonio, TX–August 10, 2012) While the Rio Grande Valley is experiencing both population and job growth this has not translated into a rebounding housing market, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Rio Grande Valley registered an annual job gain of 6,500 jobs, a 1.8% rate. The Rio Grande Valley registered an annual job gain of 9,200 jobs in 2011, a 2.6% rate, after showing a gain of 6,600 jobs in 2010. The local economy showed a loss of 1,900 jobs
(- 0.5%) in Year-2009, and gained 3,600 jobs (1.0%) in 2008. The Rio Grande Valley unemployment rate as of May 2012 is 10.6%, which is down 1.1% from a year ago. “Job growth forecasts for 2012 project the Rio Grande Valley to see job growth in the 1.5% to 2.5% range for 2012,” said Randall Allsup, director of Metrostudy’s Rio Grande Valley Region.

The annual rate of new home growth in the Rio Grande Valley as determined by Metrostudy’s 2nd quarter survey is 1,969 starts, down 151 units, or 7.1%, from the 2Q11 rate of 2,129. The Rio Grande Valley had 387 starts in the 2nd quarter, down 18.4% from the 1st quarter of 2012. In the Rio Grande Valley the number of new home closings in the year ending 2Q12 was 1,938 down 223 units, or 10.3%, from the 2Q11 rate of 2,294. There have been 361 closings in the 2nd quarter, down 18.1% from 1Q12.

“Metrostudy’s 2Q12 survey found the level of new home inventory to be high relative to the number of closings in the same period, “said Allsup. There were a total of 1,383 homes in inventory at the end of 2Q12, which represents an 8.6 months of supply based on the annual closings rate. Finished and vacant inventory in 2Q12 stands at 649 units, which represents 4.0 months of supply. When finished inventory rises above 2.5 months builders are generally forced to begin offering concessions in order to move the inventory of unsold homes. In 2Q12 Metrostudy counted 19,161 vacant developed lots in the Rio Grande Valley market. Based on the current quarterly starts rate, this lot total represents a 115.6 months supply of lots, well above what is considered a healthy range.

“The constraining factor on the growth of the Rio Grande Valley is the lack of credit for would be buyers and we have seen the new home market contract by 7% in the past year. The expectation is that the decline is temporary as the market is still 22% above the lows reached in the 1st quarter of 2010, and demand for all types of housing will grow as population growth continues. As such the Rio Grande Valley multifamily market is extremely tight at an occupancy level of 96.3% and rents that continue to climb at a fairly rapid rate. The positive side to this is that climbing rents will help build demand for detached housing and we have seen the sales pace in the resale market steady over the past few months and inventory levels are beginning to drop which has contributed to stabilizing home values, especially in more desirable areas,” said Allsup.

For information contact:
randall allsup @ 210.525.9549
email rallsup@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data collected by a staff of 650, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.