Metrostudy Florida Markets: All Florida markets witnessed year-over-year price growth in 2Q14

Posted in Central Florida Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-11-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

FINAL 2Q Florida Release and Infographic_Page_01

 

Florida’s new-home market has been surprisingly resilient in coming out of the downturn. Despite massive numbers of foreclosure homes for sale all around the state, builders have managed to find increasing numbers of buyers, and starts activity has rebounded nicely. Prices moved up rapidly in 2011, 2012, and 2013, rising at a more moderate pace in 2014.

2q chart

 

 

Florida Market-by-Market

Tampa:

The Tampa market continues its slow recovery from the devastating recession. Home starts fell by 85% from the peak to the bottom. While some broad based indicators remain positive, like job growth and the local unemployment rate, they have not resulted in robust demand for new housing. As of mid-2014, the Tampa annual pace for new housing starts was 5,853 units.

While this was a 69% improvement from the 3,462 homes built in 2009, it represents just 26% of the peak starts (22,409 units for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006). Families that lost their homes by foreclosure, have difficulty in qualifying for a mortgage or can’t afford the rising new home prices have driven a greater portion of housing demand into rental apartments.

Tampa Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,510 $241,924 $102.29
3Q13 1,484 $251,058 $104.96
4Q13 1,642 $264,895 $107.68
1Q14 1,108 $272,419 $106.33
2Q14 1,304 $276,138 $106.82

 

Over the last year, single family detached home prices are up 12.7% for the five county Tampa market. Homes that closed during the second quarter of 2014 had an average price of $288,006 versus $255,491 in 2Q13. Not only are prices rising, but the average home size is growing. The 2Q closing records showed the average detached single-family home was 2,738 SF, up 227 SF over the 2Q13 average of 2,511 SF. During the second quarter of 2014, both home size and price were essentially flat.

We have seen prices also rise substantially over the last year in townhome and villa product. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $210,243 or 11.9% higher than the $187,881 average in
2Q13. Unlike the detached product, the average size of attached product is shrinking.

Tampa is a highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for 60% of all annual housing starts in the second quarter of 2014. The list of top builders includes nine national builders and just one local builder. Lennar Homes dominates the list and built more homes than builders #2, 3 and 4 combined.

 

Tampa,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
LennarHomes    1,100
DR Horton 409
Pulte Group 343
M/IHomes 314
TaylorMorrison 280
HomesbyWestBay 262
Standard Pacific Homes 235
BeazerHomes 213
Ryland Homes 189
K.Hovnanian 185
TOTAL 3,530

Sarasota:

The Sarasota market is less reliant upon job growth to create housing demand as the market has a strong reputation for retiree demand. That did not mean that Sarasota was immune to the recession. New home starts fell by 86% from 9,113 for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006 to 1,284 units built in 2009. Sarasota has recovered quicker than other Florida markets and as of June 30, 2014, the annual start pace was 3,839 homes (up 199% from the cyclical low).

As the recovery has taken hold, new home prices are rising. In fact, single-family detached homes sold for an average of $310,266 during 2Q14. This was a 22.5% increase over the $253,285 average price in 2Q13. A portion of the price increase was directly attributable to larger homes being bought. The average new home was 2,368 SF in 2Q14 versus 2,076 SF in 2Q13. Buyers are looking for a fourth bedroom or home office particularly in Manatee County.

Sarasota Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 707 $247,643 $123.57
3Q13 827 $259,779 $126.41
4Q13 937 $284,759 $131.04
1Q14 677 $248,670 $130.09
2Q14 637 $295,825 $130.49

 

For town-home and villa product, prices have not changed over the last twelve months. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $224,293 or just 0.9% higher than the $222,364 average in
2Q13. The data does show that the average size of attached product grew to 1,765 SF. For the prior four quarters the average product size was between 1,597 and 1,680 SF.

Sarasota is a very highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for
72% of all annual housing starts in 2Q14. The list includes seven national builders and three local/regional builders. The list is led by Neal Communities with 627 recorded closings, over one and a half time larger than #2 Pulte Group.

 

Sarasota,
August 1,2013- July 31,2014

Builder Closings
Neal Communities 627
Pulte Group 401
LennarHomes 374
DR Horton 355
TaylorMorrison 349
Ryland Homes 211
WCI Communities 175
Medallion Homes 116
Maronda Homes 109
M/IHomes 72
TOTAL 2,789

 

Southwest Florida:

Southwest Florida’s housing market has recovered nicely from the depths of the Great Recession, and closings were up 31% in 2Q14 over 2Q13. In fact, Metrostudy ranked the Cape Coral Ft. Myers MSA third and the Naples – Marco Island MSA sixth in last month’s “Top Ten Outlook and Market Health Ranking.”

SW Florida Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 611 $384,869 $171.12
3Q13 725 $390,281 $177.32
4Q13 891 $429,191 $188.42
1Q14 728 $434,339 $185.36
2Q14 800 $428,685 $173.00

 

During this same period, the average sales price was up 11%, and the size of the home increased by 10%. In particular, Naples showed a significant jump in pricing and home size, with a $75,000 average increase in pricing, to an average of $543,307, and an over 400 square foot increase (19%) in home size, to an average of 2,744.

However, the price per square foot in Southwest Florida only increased 1% from 2Q13. This may be an anomaly for the current quarter, as price per square foot prices had risen from an average of $171/sf in 2Q13 to over $185/sf in 1Q14. Or, it may reflect a developing trend with builders offering larger homes to offset the increase in sales prices. Metrostudy will monitor this metric to see if a trend emerges one way or the other.

 

Cape Coral-Ft Myers, Naples-Imokalee-Marco Island,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
Lennar 943
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 401
DR Horton 374
Stockdevelopment LLC 355
WCI communities 349
Gl Homes 251
TaylorMorrison 175
Habitat for Humanity 116
Toll Brothers 109
MintoBuilders 72
TOTAL 3,145

 

The Treasure Coast:

As with Southwest Florida, the Treasure Coast has seen a big recovery from the lows of the market back in 2010, and closings are up 36% the second quarter this year over the 2Q13. Home prices are among the most affordable in South Florida. However, prices continue to rise, with the average up 16% to $294,131. The average size of the home increased from 2,285 to 2,443, a 7% jump. Pricing per square foot is the lowest of all three areas, and at only $120/sf, represents a true bargain for South Florida home shoppers. It’s still relatively easy to find a new single family detached home selling for under $200,000 on the Treasure Coast. Nevertheless, the price per square foot increased 8% during this period, so the trend is moving upward.

 

Treasure Coast Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 190 $253,921 $111.12
3Q13 223 $283,141 $115.23
4Q13 259 $294,108 $116.20
1Q14 208 $288,007 $116.22
2Q14 258 $294,131 $120.38

 

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder                   Closings
DR Horton 280
KolterCommunities Florida LLC 199
AdamsHomes 126
AV Homes, Inc. 96
GHO Homes 82
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 60
Maronda Homes 59
MintoBuilders 59
KB Homes 45
HabitatForHumanity 32
TOTAL 1,038

 

Miami- Ft. Lauderdale:
South Florida is the most populous area with approximately 6 million residents. The Miami – Ft. Lauderdale MSA also placed in our Top Ten Ranking at ninth overall.

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,033 $296,665 $154.40
3Q13 1,256 $377,697 $147.25
4Q13 1,331 $417,954 $154.28
1Q14 988 $425,785 $161.90
2Q14 994 $469,107 $171.46

 

Somewhat surprisingly, the closing rate declined by 4% in the current quarter when compared to
2Q13. This is also reflected in the annualized starts rate, which declined in 2Q14 as well. We are seeing the effects of a slight tempering in demand due to the relatively high sales prices and supply constraints caused by lot and labor shortages, which are noticeable in all three of the MSA’s counties.

Those price increases are on par with Naples, with a similar $75,000 jump in the average sales price, to $469,107. The increase in home size was more modest, at only 7% to 2,736. However, the overall size is one of the largest home sizes in all of South Florida; quite similar to Naples. South Florida also saw the largest increase in price per square foot during this period, rising from
$154/sf to $171/sf, or 11%.

In summary, prices continue to rise, although at a more modest pace, particularly in the past couple of quarters. Homes are getting bigger again, and we are likely to set another record for new home size in 2014. While home appreciation is likely to continue, there’s always the concern that higher prices will crimp demand. Supply constraints, especially in South Florida, might mask a muting in demand, but the other two areas could feel the pinch should prices rise beyond what consumers deem as reasonable.

 

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder              Closings
Lennar 1,450
Gl Homes 630
DR Horton 397
CC Devco Homes 316
Standard PacificHomes 304
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 265
Encore Homebuilders 240
MintoBuilders 226
Toll Brothers 219
TerraGroup 143
  TOTAL       5,640  

 

Jacksonville:

The Jacksonville MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $35,000, or 14% in the 2Q14 when compared to the second quarter of 2013. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Jacksonville Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,122 $249,530 $102.12
3Q13 1,143 $259,474 $103.23
4Q13 1,184 $255,260 $104.84
1Q14 1,165 $272,197 $106.74
2Q14 1,297 $284,114 $109.67

 

Even with this pricing growth the market’s quarterly closing rate increased by over 15% in 2Q14 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 600 units in the 4Q11, to 1,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed between 1,300 and 1,400 units per quarter since.

This indicates the market has reached a point where pricing growth has curbed demand. With the strongest market areas being in northern St. Johns County, it is likely the demand for lower priced housing will push demand out of the urban core. We expect to see stronger growth in new housing construction further south in St. Johns county, as well as in Clay and northern and western Duval County over the coming quarters.

 

Jacksonville,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder             Closings
DR Horton 1,046
DreamFindersHomes LLC (Fl) 384
Lennar 373
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 317
Kb Home 292
Richmond AmericanHomes-MDC 281
Mattamy Homes 251
DavidWeekleyHomes 245
Standard PacificHomes 152
Providence Homes(Fl) 146
TOTAL 3,236

 

Orlando:

The Orlando MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $40,000, or 15% in the 2Q14 when compared to the 2Q13. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Orlando Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,855 $259,978 $109.05
3Q13 1,949 $274,837 $110.84
4Q13 2,088 $290,887 $112.50
1Q14 1,699 $290,197 $112.53
2Q14 1,757 $299,460 $116.71

 

Not surprisingly, the market has felt this pricing pressure as the quarterly closing rate declined by
5% in the second quarter of 2014 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 1,000 units in the 2Q11, to 2,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed in the mid-2,000 range since.

What this ultimately means is that demand will be reduced in the urban core, and increase in the outlying areas as buyers look to find, and builders work to produce more affordable product. Orlando has a mix of buyers with significant international and active adult markets, yet remains primarily a Leisure and Resort Service and Retail Trade job market, catering to first time, first time move-up and multi-generational home buyers.

 

Orlando,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder               Closings
Lennar 922
DR Horton 852
Meritage Homes 581
TheRyland Group,Inc. 484
Kb Home 416
M/IHomes 352
BeazerHomes 341
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 299
TaylorMorrison 299
Standard PacificHomes 287
TOTAL 4,833

 

Florida is not just one market, clearly. Activity levels and pricing power vary from one market to the next, but the entire state is set for growing demand over the next five years. From the Millennials to the Boomers, an even greater influx of residents is coming to the state. Demand from retirees is expected to be a palpable force as 10 million more people reach retirement age in the U.S. over the next 5 years. Generation Y is so far showing a tendency to rent, but that will start to change as more of them start families.

For information contact:
Danielle Fiore
813-443-6504
dfiore@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com
About Hanley Wood
Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Boomers Will Drive Tampa New Home Construction

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-05-2014 | Written by Tony Polito

tonyThe Tampa housing market continues to recovers from the devastating recession which saw housing starts activity fall by 85% in the five county market between early 2006 and late 2009.  As of mid-2014, the Tampa market annual pace for new housing starts was 5,853 units.  While this was a 69% improvement from the 3,462 homes built in 2009, it represents just 26% of the peak starts (22,409 units for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006).  Families that lost their homes by foreclosure, have difficulty in qualifying for a mortgage or can’t afford the rising new home prices.  This has driven a greater portion of housing demand into rental apartments.

So, where does growth come from over the next five years for new home builders?  While Florida, as a whole has certainly established itself as a desirable choice for retirees, Tampa has typically focused on family buyers.  Demographics will change this.  Claritas estimates for household growth between 2014 and 2019 indicate that “Baby Boomers” and not millennials will drive demand for housing in Tampa Bay.  The year 2019 is significant as 100% of the Baby Boom (defined as those born between 1946 and 1964) will be age 55 and older.

tony blog

The above chart represents annual household growth for just Hillsborough and Pasco counties as they represent 90% of all new single-family homes being built in the Tampa market.

“Head of Households” whose age is between 35 and 44 years old in 2019 will only grow by 598 new households per year, or about 10% of the new construction expected to be built annually through 2019 in these two counties.  The “Baby Boomer” will represent the major growth opportunities between 2014 and 2019.  Hillsborough and Pasco Counties are expected to add 35,300 households per year into this age cohort by 2019, myself included.  This is greater than 100% of the annual growth as some younger age groups are expected to see household count decline.  Does this mean a rise in “active adult” communities?  Not necessarily, as more of the retirees are coming from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and they are used to more urban living.  Many could be attracted to downtown living.  Many will choose not to live in purely age restricted communities.  But considering that there are just a few new home communities that are age restricted, we do expect to see growth in the number of age restricted offerings in Tampa over the next five years.

Sarasota 2Q14 Housing Survey: The “Pause” is Over; Starts Up Even as Entry Level Construction Falls

Posted in National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 09-02-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • Single-family housing starts up 8.9% 2Q14 over 2Q13; Annual starts rate up 18%
  • While we are seeing both volume and price increases, 2014 price increases are more moderate than 2013
  • Starts of homes under $250k are down 19.3% from 2Q13 levels; starts over $250k are up almost 64%

September 2014: Metrostudy’s survey of the 2Q14 Sarasota/Bradenton housing market shows that the “pause” that started last fall is showing signs of abating.  In Sarasota-Bradenton, 1,056 single-family units were started in 2Q14, up 8.9% compared to 2Q13. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 18.0%, to 3,839 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 882 units, 15.6% higher than 2Q13. The annual closings rate was 3,582 units per year, 30.4% above the annual closings rate in the same quarter last year.

As in other regions, we are increasingly seeing declining levels of starts for new homes in the entry level price ranges. “For the twelve months ending June 30, 2014, new homes starts in price ranges under $250k totaled 1,448 units, down 19.3% from the 2Q13 annual activity,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton area. “Annual new homes starts in prices over $250k were up 63.6% for the twelve months ending June 30, 2014 versus June 30, 2013.”

Annual Start by Price Range

2q14 sara starts

The marginal 583 unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 346 less homes under $250k and 929 additional homes above $250k (159% of the growth came in the price ranges above $250k). The “pause” mostly affected Manatee County in 1Q14. During 2Q14, Manatee County rebounded strongly and recorded 596 housing starts, the highest level in four quarters and up 25.5% from 1Q13. During 2Q14, Sarasota County recorded 392 housing starts versus 363 starts in 1Q13, an 8.0% increase. Charlotte County is surveyed on a grid method only same quarter to same quarter starts are applicable.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 1,976 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 6.6 month supply. Inventories increased by 15.0% compared to the same quarter last year.  Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 128 units to 1,389. Finished vacant inventory increased by 37.0% from 284 units last year to 389 this year. However, the number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 68 units.

This quarter 839 lots were delivered to the Sarasota- Bradenton market. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 37,957 lots, a decrease of 1.0% compared to 38,324 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 118.6 month supply, a decrease of 23 months compared to last year. At the end of 2Q2014, Manatee County had a 27.1-month supply, up slightly from a 27.1-month supply of VDL in 1Q2014. Sarasota County had a 33.9-month supply at 2Q2014, down from 37.9- month supply at 1Q2014. Housing activity increased in all three Counties, thereby reducing VDL months of supply.

“A review of deed records indicates that the “pause” had more effect on volume than pricing,” said Polito.  “While Sarasota is seeing both volume and price increases, the price increases are more moderate than in 2013. The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market, which help retirees sell northern homes.”

TOP COMMUNITIES BY ANNUAL STARTS

Community                                        Ann Starts

Lakewood Ranch………………………………….559

The West Villages ………………………………..216

South Gulf Cove…………………………………..173

Grand Palm…………………………………………144

Palmer Ranch………………………………………129

Esplanade By Siesta Key ………………………..119

Heritage Harbour …………………………………111

Harrison Ranch……………………………………102

Greyhawk Landing ……………………………….. 87

Woodlands…………………………………………. 73

For information contact: Tony Polito @ 813.888.5151
Email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Housing starts up strong, with some stand-out markets

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Charlotte Market, Inland Empire Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Reno Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market | Posted on 08-19-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

See Top 10 Markets for New Residential  Construction Here 

brad hHousing starts numbers out today surprised many observers with its strength (+15.7%), but we find it to have been in line with our actual counts, released earlier this month. As we predicted, last month’s Census estimate was revised upward, and now the numbers are back in line with the trends revealed by the Metrostudy roll-ups.

The last release of housing starts data from the Census Bureau caused undue alarm about a collapse of activity in the South.  The Census release had shown a 29.6% decline for total starts in the South, but as we pointed out at the time, this exaggerated the weakness in the south. As a matter of fact Metrostudy’s research shows that several markets in the south are up, both based on prior quarter results, and year ago. Raleigh was down 5% versus a year ago, but Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, and South Florida showed increases.

Metrostudy’s data show that some of the most “beaten-down” markets are now doing better.  In Las Vegas, for example, housing starts were up 16% from 1st quarter 2014 to 2nd quarter 2014, and Phoenix showed a 12.3% increase quarter-on-quarter (though it is still down sharply year-on-year). Housing starts in Chicago were up 87% quarter-on-quarter, and up 30% year-on-year.  Naples Florida showed double-digit gains, both quarterly and annually.

Some significant trends were evident in Metrostudy’s data in California. Housing starts in the Riverside area rose 48.5% quarter on quarter, and are up 14% year-on-year.

We are seeing an increase in lot development in Riverside as lot shortages around the I-15 Corridor have intensified. The Inland Empire is developing its own economy, with 3% job growth, meaning that is it is no longer just a bedroom community for L.A.

Housing starts in Northern California rose 92% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, and are up 19% year-on-year. Starts there are at a record high since the boom. Contra Costa and Alameda County had particularly strong increases.

Also see, Brad Hunter discuss the promising increases in the Residential Remodeling Index and New Residential Construction this month on Bloomberg TV.

 

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

bb

 

In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts

 

 

 

 

Harry Potter Casts a Spell on Florida’s Economy

Posted in Central Florida Market, In The News, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

anthony cJune 5 (Bloomberg) –Florida’s employment picture has improved faster than any other state since the financial crisis — and some Floridians says that’s because Harry Potter has been working his wizardry in their state.

Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports from Orlando.

See full interview here

Metrostudy Regional Director – Anthony Crocco

Sarasota 1Q14 Survey Shows Housing Market Growing; Lower Price Points Squeezed as Homes Over $250k Up More Than 85%

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 05-09-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 9, 2014: Metrostudy’s 1Q14 survey of the Sarasota housing market shows continued steady growth in the region, even as the price composition of the market is changing. In Sarasota-Bradenton, 918 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2014, an increase of 2.7% over 1Q13’s rate of 894 units. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 32.8%, to 3,785 annual starts. Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 1,834 units on the ground at the end of the first quarter, a 6.4 month supply. Inventories increased by 21.3% compared to the same quarter last year.

Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 289 units to 1,318. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 1.5% from 325 units last year to 320 this year. However, the number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 52 units.

This quarter 1,142 lots were delivered to the Sarasota- Bradenton market. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 38,272 lots, a decrease of 1.5% compared to 38,855 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 121.3 month supply, a decrease of 42 months compared to last year. At the end of 4Q2013, Manatee County had a 26.3-month supply, down from a 38.4-month supply of VDL in 4Q2012. Sarasota County had a 39.7-month supply at 4Q2013, down from 61.2- month supply at 4Q2012. Housing activity increased in all three Counties, thereby reducing VDL months of supply.

The top three counties based on annual starts are Manatee (up 32%), Sarasota (up 35.6%) and Charlotte (up 25.7%).

For the twelve months ending March 31, 2014, new homes starts in price ranges under $250k totaled 1,561 units. This was down 5.4% from the 1Q2013 annual activity in prices less than $250k. Annual new homes starts in prices over $250k were up 85.3% for the twelve months ending March 31, 2014 versus 1Q2013. The marginal 935 unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 89 less units under $250k and 1,024 additional units above $250k (110% of the growth came in price points above $250k). The “pause” mostly affected Manatee County. During 1Q2014, Manatee County recorded 495 housing starts, the lowest level in five quarters. During 1Q2014, Sarasota County recorded 378 housing starts versus 348 starts in 4Q2013, an 8.6% increase.

Starts in 1Q 2014 were down 11.7% from 4Q 2013 levels. The price increases pushed thru in early 2013 peaked with 4Q closings and so far, 1Q pricing was down in Manatee and Sarasota County, 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively. “The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market, which help retirees sell northern homes,” says Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota market.

For information contact: tony polito @ 813.888.5151
Email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Shrinking First-Time Buyer Market

Posted in National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by Austin Evans

Activity and pricing both experienced significant gains in most of our markets around the country in 2013, leaving many feeling optimistic about 2014 and 2015. Metrostudy is projecting increases in new home starts in our Florida markets through 2017, with home prices trending up as well. This is generally positive news, but may present some affordability issues in the first-time buyer segment.

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2013 Was a Tremendous Year for New Home Construction

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 02-17-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL – February 17, 2014) While the local market is still slow in replacing the jobs lost during the recession, as only 49% of the lost jobs have been regained (Tampa has replaced 75%), major northern markets are showing better signs of recovery and that is providing more retiree demand. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In Sarasota-Bradenton, 1,041 single-family units were started in 4Q13. This represented an increase of 41.8% compared to last year’s rate of 734 units. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 51.2%, to 3,749 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,003 units, which as 29.4% higher than the 775 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate was 3,239 units per year, which was 40.4% above the annual closings rate of 2,307 units per year in the same quarter last year. “Sarasota-Bradenton was one of the best in the nation for new construction percentage growth in 2013,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota market.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 1,850 units on the ground at the end of 4Q13, a 6.9 month supply, an equilibrium level. Inventories increased by 38.1% compared to the same quarter last year, as Sarasota-Bradenton now has more homes under construct than any point since 2006. Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 483 units to 1,419. Finished vacant inventory increased by 1.1% from 261 units last year to 264 this year. However, the number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and FV inventory decreased by 37 units. Model home inventory was up 24 units from last year at 167 total models. The increased model count is a clear sign of builder confidence. Builders in this market are closing 19.4 homes per year, per model, compared to 16.1 last year. By comparison, the market was closing 19 homes per model in 2002 and 25 homes per model at the end of 2005.

Vacant developed lot inventory in marketed subdivisions within Manatee and Sarasota Counties stands at 8,843 lots, an increase of 2.1% compared to 8,660 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 31.0 month supply, a decrease of 15.6 months compared to last year. At the end of 4Q2013, Manatee County had a 26.3-month supply, down from a 38.4-month supply of VDL in 4Q2012. Sarasota County had a 39.7-month supply at 4Q2013, down from 61.2- month supply at 4Q2012.  Historically Sarasota-Bradenton is one of the first housing markets to recover from a recession.  The incredible growth in starts in 2013 and the balanced nature of inventory and lot supply again indicate that Sarasota-Bradenton was leading the Florida recovery.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.