Sarasota 2Q14 Housing Survey: The “Pause” is Over; Starts Up Even as Entry Level Construction Falls

Posted in National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 09-02-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • Single-family housing starts up 8.9% 2Q14 over 2Q13; Annual starts rate up 18%
  • While we are seeing both volume and price increases, 2014 price increases are more moderate than 2013
  • Starts of homes under $250k are down 19.3% from 2Q13 levels; starts over $250k are up almost 64%

September 2014: Metrostudy’s survey of the 2Q14 Sarasota/Bradenton housing market shows that the “pause” that started last fall is showing signs of abating.  In Sarasota-Bradenton, 1,056 single-family units were started in 2Q14, up 8.9% compared to 2Q13. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 18.0%, to 3,839 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 882 units, 15.6% higher than 2Q13. The annual closings rate was 3,582 units per year, 30.4% above the annual closings rate in the same quarter last year.

As in other regions, we are increasingly seeing declining levels of starts for new homes in the entry level price ranges. “For the twelve months ending June 30, 2014, new homes starts in price ranges under $250k totaled 1,448 units, down 19.3% from the 2Q13 annual activity,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton area. “Annual new homes starts in prices over $250k were up 63.6% for the twelve months ending June 30, 2014 versus June 30, 2013.”

Annual Start by Price Range

2q14 sara starts

The marginal 583 unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 346 less homes under $250k and 929 additional homes above $250k (159% of the growth came in the price ranges above $250k). The “pause” mostly affected Manatee County in 1Q14. During 2Q14, Manatee County rebounded strongly and recorded 596 housing starts, the highest level in four quarters and up 25.5% from 1Q13. During 2Q14, Sarasota County recorded 392 housing starts versus 363 starts in 1Q13, an 8.0% increase. Charlotte County is surveyed on a grid method only same quarter to same quarter starts are applicable.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 1,976 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 6.6 month supply. Inventories increased by 15.0% compared to the same quarter last year.  Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 128 units to 1,389. Finished vacant inventory increased by 37.0% from 284 units last year to 389 this year. However, the number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 68 units.

This quarter 839 lots were delivered to the Sarasota- Bradenton market. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 37,957 lots, a decrease of 1.0% compared to 38,324 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 118.6 month supply, a decrease of 23 months compared to last year. At the end of 2Q2014, Manatee County had a 27.1-month supply, up slightly from a 27.1-month supply of VDL in 1Q2014. Sarasota County had a 33.9-month supply at 2Q2014, down from 37.9- month supply at 1Q2014. Housing activity increased in all three Counties, thereby reducing VDL months of supply.

“A review of deed records indicates that the “pause” had more effect on volume than pricing,” said Polito.  “While Sarasota is seeing both volume and price increases, the price increases are more moderate than in 2013. The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market, which help retirees sell northern homes.”

TOP COMMUNITIES BY ANNUAL STARTS

Community                                        Ann Starts

Lakewood Ranch………………………………….559

The West Villages ………………………………..216

South Gulf Cove…………………………………..173

Grand Palm…………………………………………144

Palmer Ranch………………………………………129

Esplanade By Siesta Key ………………………..119

Heritage Harbour …………………………………111

Harrison Ranch……………………………………102

Greyhawk Landing ……………………………….. 87

Woodlands…………………………………………. 73

For information contact: Tony Polito @ 813.888.5151
Email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Housing starts up strong, with some stand-out markets

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Charlotte Market, Inland Empire Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Reno Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market | Posted on 08-19-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

See Top 10 Markets for New Residential  Construction Here 

brad hHousing starts numbers out today surprised many observers with its strength (+15.7%), but we find it to have been in line with our actual counts, released earlier this month. As we predicted, last month’s Census estimate was revised upward, and now the numbers are back in line with the trends revealed by the Metrostudy roll-ups.

The last release of housing starts data from the Census Bureau caused undue alarm about a collapse of activity in the South.  The Census release had shown a 29.6% decline for total starts in the South, but as we pointed out at the time, this exaggerated the weakness in the south. As a matter of fact Metrostudy’s research shows that several markets in the south are up, both based on prior quarter results, and year ago. Raleigh was down 5% versus a year ago, but Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, and South Florida showed increases.

Metrostudy’s data show that some of the most “beaten-down” markets are now doing better.  In Las Vegas, for example, housing starts were up 16% from 1st quarter 2014 to 2nd quarter 2014, and Phoenix showed a 12.3% increase quarter-on-quarter (though it is still down sharply year-on-year). Housing starts in Chicago were up 87% quarter-on-quarter, and up 30% year-on-year.  Naples Florida showed double-digit gains, both quarterly and annually.

Some significant trends were evident in Metrostudy’s data in California. Housing starts in the Riverside area rose 48.5% quarter on quarter, and are up 14% year-on-year.

We are seeing an increase in lot development in Riverside as lot shortages around the I-15 Corridor have intensified. The Inland Empire is developing its own economy, with 3% job growth, meaning that is it is no longer just a bedroom community for L.A.

Housing starts in Northern California rose 92% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, and are up 19% year-on-year. Starts there are at a record high since the boom. Contra Costa and Alameda County had particularly strong increases.

Also see, Brad Hunter discuss the promising increases in the Residential Remodeling Index and New Residential Construction this month on Bloomberg TV.

 

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts

 

 

 

 

Harry Potter Casts a Spell on Florida’s Economy

Posted in Central Florida Market, In The News, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

anthony cJune 5 (Bloomberg) –Florida’s employment picture has improved faster than any other state since the financial crisis — and some Floridians says that’s because Harry Potter has been working his wizardry in their state.

Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports from Orlando.

See full interview here

Metrostudy Regional Director – Anthony Crocco

Sarasota 1Q14 Survey Shows Housing Market Growing; Lower Price Points Squeezed as Homes Over $250k Up More Than 85%

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 05-09-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 9, 2014: Metrostudy’s 1Q14 survey of the Sarasota housing market shows continued steady growth in the region, even as the price composition of the market is changing. In Sarasota-Bradenton, 918 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2014, an increase of 2.7% over 1Q13’s rate of 894 units. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 32.8%, to 3,785 annual starts. Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 1,834 units on the ground at the end of the first quarter, a 6.4 month supply. Inventories increased by 21.3% compared to the same quarter last year.

Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 289 units to 1,318. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 1.5% from 325 units last year to 320 this year. However, the number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 52 units.

This quarter 1,142 lots were delivered to the Sarasota- Bradenton market. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 38,272 lots, a decrease of 1.5% compared to 38,855 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 121.3 month supply, a decrease of 42 months compared to last year. At the end of 4Q2013, Manatee County had a 26.3-month supply, down from a 38.4-month supply of VDL in 4Q2012. Sarasota County had a 39.7-month supply at 4Q2013, down from 61.2- month supply at 4Q2012. Housing activity increased in all three Counties, thereby reducing VDL months of supply.

The top three counties based on annual starts are Manatee (up 32%), Sarasota (up 35.6%) and Charlotte (up 25.7%).

For the twelve months ending March 31, 2014, new homes starts in price ranges under $250k totaled 1,561 units. This was down 5.4% from the 1Q2013 annual activity in prices less than $250k. Annual new homes starts in prices over $250k were up 85.3% for the twelve months ending March 31, 2014 versus 1Q2013. The marginal 935 unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 89 less units under $250k and 1,024 additional units above $250k (110% of the growth came in price points above $250k). The “pause” mostly affected Manatee County. During 1Q2014, Manatee County recorded 495 housing starts, the lowest level in five quarters. During 1Q2014, Sarasota County recorded 378 housing starts versus 348 starts in 4Q2013, an 8.6% increase.

Starts in 1Q 2014 were down 11.7% from 4Q 2013 levels. The price increases pushed thru in early 2013 peaked with 4Q closings and so far, 1Q pricing was down in Manatee and Sarasota County, 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively. “The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market, which help retirees sell northern homes,” says Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota market.

For information contact: tony polito @ 813.888.5151
Email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Shrinking First-Time Buyer Market

Posted in National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by Austin Evans

Activity and pricing both experienced significant gains in most of our markets around the country in 2013, leaving many feeling optimistic about 2014 and 2015. Metrostudy is projecting increases in new home starts in our Florida markets through 2017, with home prices trending up as well. This is generally positive news, but may present some affordability issues in the first-time buyer segment.

Read the rest of this entry »

2013 Was a Tremendous Year for New Home Construction

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 02-17-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL – February 17, 2014) While the local market is still slow in replacing the jobs lost during the recession, as only 49% of the lost jobs have been regained (Tampa has replaced 75%), major northern markets are showing better signs of recovery and that is providing more retiree demand. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In Sarasota-Bradenton, 1,041 single-family units were started in 4Q13. This represented an increase of 41.8% compared to last year’s rate of 734 units. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 51.2%, to 3,749 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,003 units, which as 29.4% higher than the 775 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate was 3,239 units per year, which was 40.4% above the annual closings rate of 2,307 units per year in the same quarter last year. “Sarasota-Bradenton was one of the best in the nation for new construction percentage growth in 2013,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota market.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 1,850 units on the ground at the end of 4Q13, a 6.9 month supply, an equilibrium level. Inventories increased by 38.1% compared to the same quarter last year, as Sarasota-Bradenton now has more homes under construct than any point since 2006. Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 483 units to 1,419. Finished vacant inventory increased by 1.1% from 261 units last year to 264 this year. However, the number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and FV inventory decreased by 37 units. Model home inventory was up 24 units from last year at 167 total models. The increased model count is a clear sign of builder confidence. Builders in this market are closing 19.4 homes per year, per model, compared to 16.1 last year. By comparison, the market was closing 19 homes per model in 2002 and 25 homes per model at the end of 2005.

Vacant developed lot inventory in marketed subdivisions within Manatee and Sarasota Counties stands at 8,843 lots, an increase of 2.1% compared to 8,660 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 31.0 month supply, a decrease of 15.6 months compared to last year. At the end of 4Q2013, Manatee County had a 26.3-month supply, down from a 38.4-month supply of VDL in 4Q2012. Sarasota County had a 39.7-month supply at 4Q2013, down from 61.2- month supply at 4Q2012.  Historically Sarasota-Bradenton is one of the first housing markets to recover from a recession.  The incredible growth in starts in 2013 and the balanced nature of inventory and lot supply again indicate that Sarasota-Bradenton was leading the Florida recovery.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Sarasota housing market experienced an increase of housing activity in the third quarter

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 10-31-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL – October 31, 2013) The major northern markets are showing better signs of recovery and that is providing more retiree demand. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In Sarasota-Bradenton, 864 single-family units were started in 3Q13. This represented an increase of 33.3% compared to last year’s rate of 648 units. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 54.6%, to 3,430 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 749 units, which was 55.4% higher than the 482 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate was 2,990 units per year, which was 46.4% above the annual closings rate of 2,042 units per year in the same quarter last year. “With the upward trend in closings, there is not significant risk in the under construction backlog at this point,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota market.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 1,835 units on the ground at the end of the third quarter, a 7.4-month supply. Inventories increased by 31.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 378 units to 1,358. Finished vacant inventory increased by 13.2% from 272 units last year to 308 this year. The number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 32 units. Model home inventory was up 26 units from last year at 169 total models. “The increased model count is a clear sign of builder confidence. Builders in this market are closing 17.7 homes per year, per model, compared to 14.3 last year,” said Polito. By comparison, the market was closing 19 homes per model in 2002 and 25 homes per model at the end of 2005.

This quarter 734 lots were delivered to the Sarasota- Bradenton market. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 38,113 lots, a decrease of 1.3% compared to 38,599 lots last year.  At the end of 3Q13, Manatee County had a 27.5-month supply, down from a 44.1-month supply of VDL in 3Q2012. Sarasota County had a 41.7-month supply at 3Q2013, down from 66.1- month supply at 3Q2012. “Housing activity increased in all three Counties, thereby reducing VDL months of supply,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Sarasota housing market gains strength in the second quarter of 2013

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market | Posted on 07-23-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL – July 23, 2013) The major northern markets are showing better signs of recovery and that is providing more retiree demand. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota-Bradenton MSA added 1,100 jobs (Annual Rate) based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics report for 2Q13, an annual growth rate of 0.5%. For the twelve months ending May 2013, North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota was 148th in the nation for job creation. According to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, the June 2013 unemployment rate stood at 7.2% (NSA), below the national average of 7.6% (SA) and below the Florida rate of 7.4% (NSA). “One year ago, the jobless rate was 8.8%, reflecting an improvement over the last twelve months in the North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota MSA,” said Tony Polito, regional director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota Market.

In Sarasota-Bradenton, 970 single-family units were started in 2Q13. This represented an increase of 70.8% compared to last year’s rate of 568 units. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 50.2%, to 3,219 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 755 units, which was 47.7% higher than the 511 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate was 2,730 units per year, which was 32.1% above the annual closings rate of 2,067 units per year in the same quarter last year.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 1,724 units on the ground at the end of the second quarter, a 7.6 month-supply. Inventories increased by 39.6% compared to the same quarter last year. Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 507 units to 1,271. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 12.7% from 314 units last year to 274 this year. The number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and FV inventory decreased by 51 units.

This quarter 518 lots were delivered to the Sarasota- Bradenton market. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 38,317 lots, a decrease of 1.6% compared to 38,957 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 142.8 month-supply, a decrease of 75 months compared to last year.  Manatee County had a 30.8-month supply at 2Q2013, down from 49.2- month supply at 2Q2012. “Housing activity increased in all three Counties, thereby reducing VDL months of supply,” said Polito.

The number of finished vacant housing units had been dropping since 4Q06. As of June, 30 2013, the months of supply of FV units for Sarasota/Bradenton stood at 1.2 months. This was down from 1.6 months as of June 2012. We consider equilibrium as between 1.5 and 2.0 months. The amount of units UC has not been seen at this level since 2006. The months of supply of UC units grew from 4.4 in June 2012 to 5.6 months today. “With the strong upward trend in closings, there is not significant risk in the under construction backlog at this point, even with rising interest rates,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.