Age Targeted Housing Demand in Florida: What the Future Holds

Posted in Central Florida Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Naples Condo Market, National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market, South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 01-02-2013 | Written by Bob Hamilton

Active adult, or “age-targeted” housing has been a major driver in new home development in Florida for decades. Retirees, mostly from the Northeast and Midwest, have historically migrated to the east and west coasts of Florida due to affordable housing, low taxes and favorable climate. Many of these retirees have been attracted to over-55 age restricted communities that have their own dedicated amenities tailored towards older residents.

However, events over the past decade have changed migration patterns into the state.  Escalating home prices and lingering impacts from a number of major hurricanes originally caused migration trends to reverse starting around 2005.  Additionally, the deep national recession further limited migration into the state over the latter half of the decade. A generational shift from the “Greatest” generation to the “Baby “Boomers” has also had a significant impact on migration, not only for Florida, but throughout the country.

To what extent have retiree migration trends changed in Florida over the past decade?

Richard Johnson, director of retirement policy research at The Urban Institute, states in a recent article entitled “The Shifting Retiree Migration,” that in 1990, more than one in four retirees age 55 to 65 that relocated across state lines moved to Florida, and that seven of the top 10 cities for migrating retirees were located in Florida. Over the past five years, however, Johnson’s analysis indicates that while Florida is still the most popular destination for relocating retirees, it attracted only one in seven of those age 55 to 65 who crossed state lines between 2005 and 2010. Only three metros in the state now rank among the nation’s top 10 magnets for retirees, with retiree demand shifting to cities such as Phoenix, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Dallas, as well as other fast-growing metros in the Sunbelt. Even northern cities like New York, Washington DC, and Chicago have retained a greater share of their retirees driven by recent economic conditions or changing generational preferences.

Has this recent loss in retiree market share impacted new single family age targeted housing demand? An analysis of Metrostudy’s annual closings data within age targeted communities seems to corroborate these findings in some Florida markets. Closings for new age targeted product within the Sarasota-Bradenton market accounted for over 36% of all single family closings in 2000. By  3Q 2012, only 10.7% of all annual closings were within retiree communities. Demand for age targeted communities in the Naples-Ft. Myers market, which once had a nearly 34% market share, currently only accounts for 3.2% of all single family closings. Statewide (all Metrostudy markets combined), age targeted market share has declined slightly since 2000, from 17.7% market share in 2000 to 15.2% annually in 3Q 2012.

Not all markets, however, have experienced a decline. Age targeted demand in Metrostudy’s Central Florida market has increased over the past two years and now accounts for over 29% of all annual closings, up from 18% in 2000. Single family age targeted demand has also increased in the Jacksonville market, with 4.3% market share in 3Q 2012, up from .3% in 2000.

Ratio of Annual Single Family Closings within Active Adult Communities vs. All Communities by Florida Market

bob chart

Given these recent trends, what lies ahead for new, single family, age targeted development in Florida? Projections produced by the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research show a 29% increase in population for those residents aged 55 and up by 2020. This is well above the 11% increase projected for all age groups, and indicates that older buyers will remain a significant market segment within the state over the coming years.

Retiring Baby Boomers are generally more active than their predecessor, and tend to desire an area that appeals to their varied lifestyle. Traditional retiree markets are therefore not expected to be a major destination for this segment, with these buyers instead gravitating towards new emerging markets in central Florida and Jacksonville. This trend has so far been corroborated by each these market’s age-targeted closings activity over the past decade. Price will also be a major factor, with markets having a low land basis likely outperforming those with higher land costs.

Despite these generational changes, there will be a place for age-targeted development in Florida over the coming years, especially as builders market communities that appeal specifically to the Boomer lifestyle. Sales activity at most active age-targeted communities has improved throughout the state over the past year, and there remains enough lot supply to account for near-term demand in most markets, with approximately 18,792 vacant developed lots and 90,220 future lots designated for age targeted development. This improvement in demand, combined with expected over-55 population growth, should allow for stable age-targeted market share over time, even with changing buyer preferences.

Sarasota/Bradenton sees large increase in second quarter housing starts

Posted in In The News, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market | Posted on 07-18-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL – July 18, 2012) The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota market is increasing in housing activity as expected, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota-Bradenton MSA added 1,800 jobs (Annual Rate) based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics report for May, an annual growth rate of 0.7%.  The unemployment rate was 8.4%, just below the state average of 8.5%.  The June job numbers will be released July 20th.  “Because the percentage of local job growth remains below most other Florida MSAs, it remains highly likely that we will continue to see the local unemployment rate higher than the national average over the next year,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton Region.

During 2Q12, 556 single family units were started, an increase of 30.2% compared to 2Q11. The annual starts rate rose to 2,087 homes, 13.1% higher than last year’s rate. There were 504 closings (actual move-ins) during the quarter, 15.1% higher than 2Q11.

“Metrostudy forecasted an increase in new home starts for 2012 in a range between 2,000 and 2,200 new units or 5 – 15% higher than year end 2011 starts. The current rolling twelve month annual start pace of 2,087 is inline with our expectation for the Sarasota/Bradenton market.  “Retiree/empty nester demand, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence will all play a part going forward,” said Polito.

Finished vacant inventory decreased over the last year from 426 units as of 2Q11 to 290 units as of 2Q12, down 31.9%, representing a 1.7 month supply. This was down from 2.4 months during 2Q11. “The number has been dropping since 4Q06. “The reduced finished vacant inventory is typically a first sign of future housing start increases and dynamics which could include rising prices for the new home sector.” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x 811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Sarasota/Bradenton housing market increasing as expected

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market | Posted on 04-26-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL – April 26, 2012) The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota market is increasing in housing activity as expected, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota-Bradenton MSA added 2,300 jobs (Annual Rate) based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics report for March, an annual growth rate of 0.9%, placing it in the top third in the nation in terms of job creation. The unemployment rate was 8.7%, higher than the state average of 8.6% and the national average of 8.2%. “Because the percentage of local job growth remains below most other Florida MSAs, it remains highly likely that we will continue to see the local unemployment rate higher than the national average over the next year,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton Region.

During 1Q12, 503 single family units were started, an increase of 14.3% compared to 1Q11. The annual starts rate rose to 1,981 homes, 8.1% higher than last year’s rate. There were 533 closings (actual move-ins) during the quarter, 2.9% higher than 1Q11.

Inventory decreased compared to 1Q11 to a 6.8-month supply, down 2.1%. Finished vacant inventory decreased to 340 units, down 23.9% compared to 1Q11, representing a 2.0 month supply. This was down from 2.5 months during 1Q11. “The number has been dropping since 4Q06,” said Polito. “The reduced finished vacant inventory is typically a first sign of future housing start increases.”

“Metrostudy forecasted an increase in new home starts for 2012 in a range between 2,000 and 2,200 new units. The current annual start pace of 1,981 is inline with our expectation for the Sarasota/Bradenton market. Retiree/empty nester demand, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence will all play a part going forward,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Sarasota/Bradenton housing market poised for a positive 2012

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market | Posted on 01-18-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL– January 18, 2012) The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota market should see an improvement in housing production in 2012, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota-Bradenton MSA added 2,100 jobs (Annual Rate) through November based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics report for 4Q11, an annual growth rate of 0.9%, placing it 101st out of the 362 MSAs in terms of job creation. The unemployment rate was 10.1%, well above the national average of 8.5%. “The local market is beginning to show signs of job creation. However, it remains highly likely that we will continue to see the local unemployment rate higher than the national average over the next year or so,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota Region.

During 4Q11, 485 single family units were started, an increase of 10% compared to 4Q10. “We anticipate between 5 and 15% growth in housing starts in 2012 or somewhere between 2,000 and 2,200 new housing starts in subdivisions,” said Polito. The annual starts rate rose to 1,932 homes, 2.2% higher than last year’s rate. There were 531 closings (actual move-ins) during the quarter, 16% lower than 4Q10. However, the annual closings rate stood at 1,985 homes, 5.1% lower than the 4Q10 annual pace.

Inventory decreased compared to 4Q10 to a 7.2-month supply, down 4.2%. Finished vacant inventory decreased to 395 units, down 28.4% compared to 4Q10, representing a 2.4 month supply. This was down from 3.2 months during 4Q10. “The number has been dropping since 4Q06,” said Polito. “The reduced finished vacant inventory is typically a first sign of future housing start increases.”

“For 2012, we are forecasting a modest increase in new home starts. The major factors going forward will be: A) retiree sentiment and northern real estate markets and B) consumer confidence and continued improvement in the local job market,” said Polito.

For information contact:
Tony Polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email: tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Sarasota/Bradenton housing market improves year-over-year during 2Q11

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market | Posted on 08-03-2011 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL– August 1, 2011) Job losses continue, but the housing market showed some signs of improvement during 2Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota MSA lost 500 jobs based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics June Report. The local unemployment stood at 10.9% NSA as of June, well above the national average of 9.2%. “It is highly likely that we will continue to see the local North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota unemployment rate higher than the national average over the next few years,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton Region.

During 2Q11, 404 single family units were started, an increase of 3.1% compared to 2Q10. Annual starts rose to 1,832, 17.1% higher than last year’s rate. Closings totaled 391 units, 8.4% lower than 2Q10. Annual closings stood at 2,119, 22.9% higher than 2Q10.

Inventory decreased to a 7-month supply, down 18.8% compared to 2Q10. Finished vacant inventory decreased to 474 units, down 24.9% compared to 2Q10, representing a 2.7 month supply. This is down from 2.8 months during 1Q11 and 4.4 months during 2Q10. The number has been dropping since 4Q06. “While the trend in declining finished vacant units is good, the overall months of supply remain high and require a continued focused approach to: sales and marketing; pricing; and land acquisition,” said Polito.

“We expect modest gains in 2011 in terms of building activity and better percentage and unit gains in 2012. The major factors going forward will be: A) retiree sentiment and northern real estate markets and B) consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the local job market,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Sarasota/Bradenton housing market showing signs of improvement

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market | Posted on 05-16-2011 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL– May 1, 2011) Job creation and shrinking inventory are both positive signs for the Sarasota-Bradenton housing market during 1Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

According to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, the March 2011 unemployment rate stood at 10.8%, well above the national average of 8.8%. As of March 2011, the North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota MSA had an employed workforce of 241,500, up from the lowest point in September 2010 of 235,600. “The worst job losses are now behind us and the market is showing signs of job creation versus September 2010,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton Region.

In Sarasota-Bradenton, 424 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2011. This represents a decrease of 12.6% compared to last year’s rate of 485 units. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 490 units, which is 16.7% higher than the 420 closings in the same quarter last year. Because closings outpaced starts, total single family inventory dropped to 1,227 units, a 6.8 month supply. Inventory is down 21.5% compared to the same quarter last year.

Finished Vacant unit supply continues its decline, and at the end of 1Q11 stands at 2.9 months compared to 4.2 months at the end of 1Q10. This has been on the decline since 4Q06. “While the overall trend in declining finished vacant units is good, the months of supply remain high and require a continued focused approach to sales and marketing, pricing and land acquisition,” said Polito.

“The foundation is in place to see improvements in the housing sector as we move through 2011 and into 2012. We expect modest gains in 2011 in terms of building activity and better percentage and units gains in 2012,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Sarasota/Bradenton housing market improves with an increase of starts and closings in 2010

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market | Posted on 02-08-2011 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL– February 1, 2011) Starts and closings increased in 2010 in Sarasota/Bradenton, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“This market is typically one of the first to recover from housing market downturns, and the trend again appears to be evident,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton Region. Starts in Manatee and Sarasota Counties increased 40.6% to 1,679 starts in 2010, and closing increased 18.0% to 1,830 closings. 544 units closed during 4Q10, the best closing quarter since 4Q08, when the mortgage market collapsed.

Total inventory at the end of 4Q10 stood at 906 units, a 5.9 months supply. This is down by 14.3% from the end of 2009. Finished vacant units continued to drop during 2010, ending at 2.3 months for 4Q10, down from 2.6 months at the end of 3Q10. “However, we still expect that it will be into 2011 before an equilibrium level of FV units is achieved market wide,” said Polito. Metrostudy considers less than 2 months to be equilibrium.

“It isn’t all good news though—median home prices are dropping and MLS sales are down from July-December compared to 2009,” said Polito. A new low median home price of $141,800 was set in October 2010. It rose in December 2010 to $156,800, but this is still down 6% from December 2009. Overall, MLS sales were down 5% to 4,540 units for July-December 2010 compared to 4,782 units in the same months in 2009.

“With the improvements in starts and closings and the dropping inventory, signs show that the worst is now behind us,” said Polito. “But a focused approach to sales and marketing, pricing and land acquisition remain absolute.”

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Sarasota/Bradenton housing market inventory improves 3Q10

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Sarasota Condo Market | Posted on 10-29-2010 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Sarasota, FL– November 1, 2010) The Sarasota/Bradenton housing market had strong starts and closings during 3Q10, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“While there continues to be some tough market factors for the new home industry, we are seeing improvement,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Sarasota/Bradenton Region. Third quarter housing starts in the Sarasota/Bradenton market were up strongly when compared to 3Q2009. In Sarasota-Bradenton, 567 single-family units were started in the third quarter of 2010. This represents an increase of 72.3% compared to last year’s rate of 329 units.

More importantly, this was the best housing start quarter since 3Q2008. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 545 units, which is 29.8% higher than the 420 closings in the same quarter last year. Because closings outpaced starts for the quarter, single family inventory dropped to 1,629 units, a 10.5 month supply and 2.1% less than 3Q09.

The Florida Association of Realtors reported 7,791 single-family sales through the first nine months of 2010, up 20% from the 6,488 units sold during the first nine months of 2009. One negative trend is the single family median prices. The bottom in the MLS median SF price in Sarasota/Bradenton was February 2009 at $144,000. The September 2010 MLS SF median price was $151,000, still above the low point in the cycle, but an 8% decline versus the same month in 2009. “The local market saw more foreclosure sales during this period, which helped to depress the median price,” said Polito.

Finished vacant inventory decreased by 8.7% from 804 units last year to 734 this year. “We still expect that it will be into 2011 before an equilibrium level of FV units is achieved market wide,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.