South Florida market sees a rise in home starts in 1Q12

Posted in South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 05-04-2012 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Miami, FL– May 4, 2012) The South Florida market showed an increased home demand during 1Q12. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“The pace of move-ins has surpassed the pace of starts for each of the past two quarters, and the supply of finished inventory dropped sharply each quarter,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. The reality of higher demand for homes was confirmed, as the prior surge of inventory was fully absorbed.

As consumer confidence, jobs and incomes improve, we are seeing continued increased in homebuilding activity.

Highlights by county:
Miami-Dade: Single-family housing starts in active subdivisions rose from a low reading of 146 in the fourth quarter of last year to 245 in the first quarter of 2012. Under absorption was essentially unchanged from last quarter, but down from a year earlier. “Total inventory levels have dropped for the last two quarters,” said Hunter. Finished vacant new home supply fell, while under-construction inventory rose.

Broward: The number on housing community in all of South Florida is Monterra in Broward. This community did more than 400 starts last year, helping to boost the county’s totals. Single-family housing starts in Broward County eased in the first quarter to 257, but remain 67% higher than the year-ago pace. The pace of new home completions fell sharply in the first quarter, leaving a swollen inventory of homes still under construction. “The large number of imminent completions will probably lead to a surge of move-ins in the 2nd quarter,” says Hunter.

Palm Beach: Starts fell 15% to 255 in the first quarter of 2012, but were 22% higher than one year earlier. The annual pace of move-ins is at 1,426, which is well above the starts pace, and at the highest pace since the recovery began in 2010. Under-construction inventory is also 21% higher than a year ago.

Martin: Martin County subdivision builders started 39 homes in the first quarter of 2012, down from 47 in the prior quarter and up from 38 a year ago. There were 54 move-ins during the fourth quarter, higher than the 50 that took place in the previous quarter and also higher than the 45 move-ins of four quarters earlier.

St. Lucie: Subdivisions in St. Lucie County had 30 homes during the first quarter of 2012. Progress is being made; in the third quarter of 2010, only nine homes were started. Total new home inventory is now at 239, down from 271 at the end of 2011.

Indian River: Single-family starts rose 29% to 54 in the first quarter, but the level is still very low, and is still lower than one year ago. The pace of move-ins is much stronger than it had been. There were 77 move-ins in the first quarter, compared with 58 last quarter and 56 a year ago.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

11/03/2011: South Florida 3Q 2011 Housing Market Executive Briefing

Posted in Events, South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 10-14-2011 | Written by Brad Hunter

Where: Palm Beach County Convention Center
When: 9AM-11AM (full breakfast for all clients)

Brad Hunter will discuss the south Florida new home market, putting into the perspective of the national housing picture.
Clients only (except by special invitation)
Contact Barbara Campbell to RSVP,
bcampbell@metrostudy.com

South Florida market moved sideways during 2Q11

Posted in South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 08-03-2011 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Miami, FL– August 1, 2011) The South Florida market shows job gains, slightly improved starts, slower move-ins, and improved finished vacant inventories during 2Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

South Florida has experienced year over year job gains each month this year, but with a smaller gain in May than in February, March, or April. “Employment data is a leading indicator of demand for new homes,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division.

Single Family starts in South Florida rose to 772 during 2Q11, up from 736 last quarter, and up from the bottom for starts at 346 in 1Q09. 802 homes closed during 2Q11, down from 1,165 last quarter, but annual move-ins remains higher than in 2010. Total inventory fell 22.5% versus one year ago, but down only 1% versus 1Q11. Finished vacant inventory is down 25.5% versus a year ago, but down only 5.8% versus last quarter.

Highlights by county:
Miami-Dade: Starts fell from 175 during 1Q11 to 135 during 2Q11. Move-ins fell from 419 to only 84 during 2Q11. “There have been a couple of quarters in the last two years with move-ins almost as low, but the number is unusually low, and the previous quarter’s number was surprisingly high,” said Hunter.

Broward:
Starts rose from 161 during 1Q11 to 231 during 2Q11, compared to the all-time high during 3Q96 of 2,912. Absorption fell from 274 to 218 but rose year-over-year, up from 168. The months-of-supply of finished vacant inventory is at 7.3, the lowest level in more than two years.

Palm Beach:
Total new home inventory fell to 963 units, compared to 1,111 during 2Q10. Finished vacant inventory stood at 324 units, which is a 3.1 month supply, the lowest level in four years.
Martin: Starts remained about the same as the previous four quarters at 37. 39 homes closed, down from 45 during 1Q11, but up from 26 during 2Q10. Finished vacant inventory fell to 84 units, a 6 month supply and the lowest months of supply number in a year.

St. Lucie: Total new home inventory is now at 293, down from 312 at the end of the first quarter, and down from 490 at the end of 2Q10. Finished vacant housing inventory is down to 191 units, down from 219 at the end of 1Q11 and 361 at the end of 2Q10.

Indian River: Total new home inventory fell to 296, compared to 325 at the end of 1Q11, and compared to 409 at the end of 2Q 2010. Finished vacant units declined to 156, down from 172 1Q11, and down from 254 one year ago.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Miami housing market showing recovery signs, other counties slow

Posted in South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 05-04-2011 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Miami, FL– May 1, 2011) The South Florida homebuilding industry got a boost in the latest quarter, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

Single Family housing starts in the six-county area increased 15% during 1Q11 to 714. “Construction activity is at the same level as four quarters ago, but it is apparent that we passed the bottom for starts back in early 2009 (345 starts that quarter),” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. Move-ins outpaced starts at 1,167, 45% more than a year ago. Thus, housing inventory and finished vacant inventory fell market-wide over the quarter versus one year ago.

Breakdown of data by county:
Miami-Dade: “Due to the tax credit last year, Miami Dade fell victim to a slight surge of overbuilding,” said Hunter. Starts went from fewer than 100 when the original tax credit went into effect to 212 in 2Q10, but subsequently fell to 130 by year-end, and rose again to 170 in 1Q11. Move-ins during 1Q11 were at 430, four times the level a year ago. “New home inventory is being absorbed at a very fast pace now, and the tax-credit excess is already gone,” Hunter said.

Broward: Starts are up quarter over quarter to 153, but down 23% compared to last year. 266 move-ins means inventory has been brought under 1,000 to only 982 homes, which is considered a low level for that county. Finished vacant inventory is at 609, down from 648 during 4Q10 but up from one year ago.

Palm Beach: Starts rose to 288, 6.3% higher than 4Q10 but 12% lower than a year ago. Move-ins outpaced starts, bringing inventory to 995 units compared to 1,116 a year ago and 6,000 at its peak. Finished vacant is at 377, far lower than Broward. “Finished new home inventories in Palm Beach County have been successfully brought down to low levels, and they are still shrinking,” Hunter said.

Martin: Starts remained the same as 4Q10 at 34, but 24% lower than a year ago. Move-ins were up 32% from last year, and outpaced starts bringing inventory down. Inventory stands at 138, compared to 151 last year and nearly 1,000 at its peak.

St. Lucie: Starts were at 16 homes, down from 20 during 4Q10 and 13 a year ago. Move-ins rose to 73. At 5 times the pace of starts, inventory is down to 312, significantly lower than 527 last year and 2,384 at its peak. Finished vacant housing inventory is down to 219, down from 377 a year ago and 1,345 at the peak.

Indian River: Starts nearly doubled during 1Q11 compared to last year and reaching the highest level since the end of 2008. Move-ins slowed to 52, down sharply from two quarters ago when move-ins spiked to 107. Inventory is at 321, down modestly from last year. “Builders are showing renewed interest in the Vero market as a result of its improvement,” Hunter said.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

South Florida housing market showing recovery signs, other counties slow

Posted in South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 02-08-2011 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Miami, FL– February 1, 2011) Housing starts in South Florida fell, and move-ins rose, shrinking inventory, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

599 homes were started during 4Q10, up from 774 in 3Q10. There were 1,035 move-ins, up from 925 during 3Q10. “However, we need to see improvements in unemployment in order for the housing market to really improve,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. Unemployment ranges from 10.8% in Broward County to 15.2% in St. Lucie County. Miami-Dade saw the greatest increase in unemployment, with a 13% rate, up from 10.5 in November 2009.

Some county by county 4Q10 housing data from Metrostudy’s new study:

Miami-Dade: Single-family starts in active subdivisions fell to 127 from 169 during 3Q10. Move-ins rose to the highest level in two years to 374 (up from 162 3Q10). The county has 20.8 months of supply in inventory and 14.6 months of supply in finished vacant units. “These metrics are a big improvement over 3Q10,” Hunter said.

Broward: Starts fell to 132 from 263 during 3Q10. Move-ins fell from 214 to 191 and exceeded stars for the first time in 3 quarters. Total inventory fell to 1039 units, down from 1098. The County has 612 finished vacant units, a 9.2 months of supply.

Palm Beach: Starts rose to 258 from 249 during 3Q10. Move-ins fell to 297 from 322. The county has 2.9 months of supply of detached finished vacant homes, lower than any South Florida county but still not what is considered healthy.

Martin: Starts were at 34, down slightly from 37 during 3Q10. Move-ins fell to 39 from 44. Total inventory stands at 86 finished vacant units, which represents 7.2 months of supply.

St. Lucie:
In St. Lucie, 20 homes were started, up from only 9 homes during 3Q10. Move-ins fell from 76 to 74. Finished vacant detached nventory stands at 10.5 months of supply, the highest of the six counties.

Indian River: The county had 28 starts, down from 47 during 3Q10. Move-ins fell from 107 to 60. Inventory stands at 320, with the 17th consecutive quarter of declining inventory.

“If unemployment falls, household formation will increase and demand for housing units will rise,” said Hunter.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Metrostudy presenting at IREM – “Status of South Florida Housing Markets”

Posted in Economy, Events, South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 01-10-2011 | Written by Brad Hunter

What: Institute of Real Estate Management meeting, where Brad Hunter will present Metrostudy’s recent findings on the South Florida housing market.

When: January 12, 2011, 8:00 AM

Where: Embassy Suites Hotel, Boca Raton

For information, contact George Chismark of IREM at admin@irem19.org

02/03/2011 : Metrostudy Executive Briefing 4Q 2010 – South Florida

Posted in Events, South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 01-10-2011 | Written by Brad Hunter

What: South Florida Metrostudy Executive Client Briefing

When: February 3, 2011

Where: Palm Beach County Convention Center

This is a client-only or invitation-only event.

Low demand and unemployment hinder the South Florida economy and housing market

Posted in South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 10-29-2010 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Miami, FL– November 1, 2010) The pace of new home construction slowed, and demand for new homes remained weak during 3Q10 in South Florida, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The pace of new home absorption rose slightly in the quarter, according to Metrostudy’s 100% count, but demand remains soft due to economic concerns. “Unemployment remains the primary problem with the national economy, and low demand levels remain the primary problem with the housing industry,” said Brad Hunter, director of Metrostudy’s South Florida division. As of August, year-over-year job losses in this market were reported to be 5,900, worse than July’s year-over-year loss of 3,200. The unemployment level in August was highest in Indian River County, at 16.2%, and lowest in Broward County at 10.7%. Miami-Dade has suffered the greatest increase in unemployment since a year ago: in August 2010, the rate was 14.4%; in August 2009, it was 11.6%.

Some county by county 3Q10 housing data from Metrostudy’s new study:

Miami-Dade: Single-family starts fell to only 78 from 133 during 2Q10. The county has 31.4 months of supply in inventory and 19.9 months of supply in finished vacant units. “There are some bright spots, most notably the Doral area, which has been incredibly strong lately,” Hunter said.

Broward: Starts rose to 265 from 198 during 2Q10. The County has 1,107 units in inventory and 592 finished vacant units, an 8.9 months supply. The pace of new home absorption rose in Broward in the third quarter.

Palm Beach: Starts fell to 245 from 278 during 2Q10. The county has 10 months of supply, lower than any South Florida county but still not what is considered healthy. “What I find encouraging is that there are actually some builders who are raising prices in Palm Beach County, even in this economy,” Hunter said.

Martin: Starts were the same as 2Q10 at 37 units. Total inventory stands at 19 months of supply.

St. Lucie: In St. Lucie, only 9 homes got started, compared to 20 during 2Q10. Inventory stands at 19.9 months of supply.

Indian River: The county had 51 starts, up from 44 during 2Q10. Inventory stands at 15.4 months of supply. “Indian River remains the most active county in the Treasure Coast,” said Hunter.

“Job growth will spur household formation, and that will mean more demand for housing units next year,” said Hunter.

For information contact:
brad hunter @ 561.228.8001 x501
email bhunter@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Green Shoots in South Florida Dirt

Posted in South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 05-03-2010 | Written by Brad Hunter

There are some projects and niches that are turning in outstanding results in South Florida.  I’ll be discussing these in more detail at the client briefing on May 6.

* G.L. Homes has the top three projects in all of south Florida, measured by new home starts.  Canyon Springs:  187 starts, Greystone:  170 starts, and Valencia Reserve, with 148 starts over the past four quarters.  Very impressive results, especially considering the state of the economy!

* Palm Beach County (particularly the Boynton/Delray submarket) leads South Florida.  Inventory of finished, vacant  homes has fallen to only 173 (detached homes) in the entire county.

* The pace of foreclosure filings continues to slow.

* Some recent grand openings have seen doorbuster crowds!

* In Miami-Dade, there were only 11 detached single-family homes started in the entire county in the first quarter.  This inactivity is allowing excess inventories to be drawn down.  Watch for increased homebuilding activity soon, as builders get to work on the lots they have just acquired in the form of formerly dormant projects.

* The Icon condo now has more than 300 units sold!  Individual investors and South American flight capital constitute a large proportion of the sales in the Miami condo market.

* Formerly discouraged sellers are once again adding their homes to the MLS, thinking that the time has come for them to get their home sold.

* The larger builders have been aggressively buying troubled projects in order to revive them, and they are still frantically searching for well-located subdivisions.

* Toll Brothers is selling ahead of their expectations at Azura in Boca Raton.   They have also bought the former WCI parcel on the Intracoastal in northern Palm Beach County.  More at–  http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/clough-toll-brothers-snaps-up-77-acre-waterfront-610313.html

4/27/2010: State of Real Estate in South Florida

Posted in Events, South Florida Condo Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 03-30-2010 | Written by Brad Hunter

Brad Hunter of Metrostudy will be speaking at an event hosted by the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, April 27th, 2010.   This is a morning-only event, taking place at the Chamber’s office located within the Hilton Miami Downtown.  The overall topic is “On the Way to Market Recovery?  The State of Real Estate in South Florida”

WHEN:  April 27, 2010 8:30 AM – 11:30 AM

WHERE:  1601 Biscayne Blvd. Ballroom Level

For information, contact Marina Foglia of the Chamber of Commerce at (305) 577-5464 or mfoglia@miamichamber.com