Metrostudy Florida Markets: All Florida markets witnessed year-over-year price growth in 2Q14

Posted in Central Florida Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-11-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

FINAL 2Q Florida Release and Infographic_Page_01

 

Florida’s new-home market has been surprisingly resilient in coming out of the downturn. Despite massive numbers of foreclosure homes for sale all around the state, builders have managed to find increasing numbers of buyers, and starts activity has rebounded nicely. Prices moved up rapidly in 2011, 2012, and 2013, rising at a more moderate pace in 2014.

2q chart

 

 

Florida Market-by-Market

Tampa:

The Tampa market continues its slow recovery from the devastating recession. Home starts fell by 85% from the peak to the bottom. While some broad based indicators remain positive, like job growth and the local unemployment rate, they have not resulted in robust demand for new housing. As of mid-2014, the Tampa annual pace for new housing starts was 5,853 units.

While this was a 69% improvement from the 3,462 homes built in 2009, it represents just 26% of the peak starts (22,409 units for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006). Families that lost their homes by foreclosure, have difficulty in qualifying for a mortgage or can’t afford the rising new home prices have driven a greater portion of housing demand into rental apartments.

Tampa Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,510 $241,924 $102.29
3Q13 1,484 $251,058 $104.96
4Q13 1,642 $264,895 $107.68
1Q14 1,108 $272,419 $106.33
2Q14 1,304 $276,138 $106.82

 

Over the last year, single family detached home prices are up 12.7% for the five county Tampa market. Homes that closed during the second quarter of 2014 had an average price of $288,006 versus $255,491 in 2Q13. Not only are prices rising, but the average home size is growing. The 2Q closing records showed the average detached single-family home was 2,738 SF, up 227 SF over the 2Q13 average of 2,511 SF. During the second quarter of 2014, both home size and price were essentially flat.

We have seen prices also rise substantially over the last year in townhome and villa product. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $210,243 or 11.9% higher than the $187,881 average in
2Q13. Unlike the detached product, the average size of attached product is shrinking.

Tampa is a highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for 60% of all annual housing starts in the second quarter of 2014. The list of top builders includes nine national builders and just one local builder. Lennar Homes dominates the list and built more homes than builders #2, 3 and 4 combined.

 

Tampa,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
LennarHomes    1,100
DR Horton 409
Pulte Group 343
M/IHomes 314
TaylorMorrison 280
HomesbyWestBay 262
Standard Pacific Homes 235
BeazerHomes 213
Ryland Homes 189
K.Hovnanian 185
TOTAL 3,530

Sarasota:

The Sarasota market is less reliant upon job growth to create housing demand as the market has a strong reputation for retiree demand. That did not mean that Sarasota was immune to the recession. New home starts fell by 86% from 9,113 for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006 to 1,284 units built in 2009. Sarasota has recovered quicker than other Florida markets and as of June 30, 2014, the annual start pace was 3,839 homes (up 199% from the cyclical low).

As the recovery has taken hold, new home prices are rising. In fact, single-family detached homes sold for an average of $310,266 during 2Q14. This was a 22.5% increase over the $253,285 average price in 2Q13. A portion of the price increase was directly attributable to larger homes being bought. The average new home was 2,368 SF in 2Q14 versus 2,076 SF in 2Q13. Buyers are looking for a fourth bedroom or home office particularly in Manatee County.

Sarasota Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 707 $247,643 $123.57
3Q13 827 $259,779 $126.41
4Q13 937 $284,759 $131.04
1Q14 677 $248,670 $130.09
2Q14 637 $295,825 $130.49

 

For town-home and villa product, prices have not changed over the last twelve months. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $224,293 or just 0.9% higher than the $222,364 average in
2Q13. The data does show that the average size of attached product grew to 1,765 SF. For the prior four quarters the average product size was between 1,597 and 1,680 SF.

Sarasota is a very highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for
72% of all annual housing starts in 2Q14. The list includes seven national builders and three local/regional builders. The list is led by Neal Communities with 627 recorded closings, over one and a half time larger than #2 Pulte Group.

 

Sarasota,
August 1,2013- July 31,2014

Builder Closings
Neal Communities 627
Pulte Group 401
LennarHomes 374
DR Horton 355
TaylorMorrison 349
Ryland Homes 211
WCI Communities 175
Medallion Homes 116
Maronda Homes 109
M/IHomes 72
TOTAL 2,789

 

Southwest Florida:

Southwest Florida’s housing market has recovered nicely from the depths of the Great Recession, and closings were up 31% in 2Q14 over 2Q13. In fact, Metrostudy ranked the Cape Coral Ft. Myers MSA third and the Naples – Marco Island MSA sixth in last month’s “Top Ten Outlook and Market Health Ranking.”

SW Florida Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 611 $384,869 $171.12
3Q13 725 $390,281 $177.32
4Q13 891 $429,191 $188.42
1Q14 728 $434,339 $185.36
2Q14 800 $428,685 $173.00

 

During this same period, the average sales price was up 11%, and the size of the home increased by 10%. In particular, Naples showed a significant jump in pricing and home size, with a $75,000 average increase in pricing, to an average of $543,307, and an over 400 square foot increase (19%) in home size, to an average of 2,744.

However, the price per square foot in Southwest Florida only increased 1% from 2Q13. This may be an anomaly for the current quarter, as price per square foot prices had risen from an average of $171/sf in 2Q13 to over $185/sf in 1Q14. Or, it may reflect a developing trend with builders offering larger homes to offset the increase in sales prices. Metrostudy will monitor this metric to see if a trend emerges one way or the other.

 

Cape Coral-Ft Myers, Naples-Imokalee-Marco Island,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
Lennar 943
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 401
DR Horton 374
Stockdevelopment LLC 355
WCI communities 349
Gl Homes 251
TaylorMorrison 175
Habitat for Humanity 116
Toll Brothers 109
MintoBuilders 72
TOTAL 3,145

 

The Treasure Coast:

As with Southwest Florida, the Treasure Coast has seen a big recovery from the lows of the market back in 2010, and closings are up 36% the second quarter this year over the 2Q13. Home prices are among the most affordable in South Florida. However, prices continue to rise, with the average up 16% to $294,131. The average size of the home increased from 2,285 to 2,443, a 7% jump. Pricing per square foot is the lowest of all three areas, and at only $120/sf, represents a true bargain for South Florida home shoppers. It’s still relatively easy to find a new single family detached home selling for under $200,000 on the Treasure Coast. Nevertheless, the price per square foot increased 8% during this period, so the trend is moving upward.

 

Treasure Coast Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 190 $253,921 $111.12
3Q13 223 $283,141 $115.23
4Q13 259 $294,108 $116.20
1Q14 208 $288,007 $116.22
2Q14 258 $294,131 $120.38

 

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder                   Closings
DR Horton 280
KolterCommunities Florida LLC 199
AdamsHomes 126
AV Homes, Inc. 96
GHO Homes 82
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 60
Maronda Homes 59
MintoBuilders 59
KB Homes 45
HabitatForHumanity 32
TOTAL 1,038

 

Miami- Ft. Lauderdale:
South Florida is the most populous area with approximately 6 million residents. The Miami – Ft. Lauderdale MSA also placed in our Top Ten Ranking at ninth overall.

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,033 $296,665 $154.40
3Q13 1,256 $377,697 $147.25
4Q13 1,331 $417,954 $154.28
1Q14 988 $425,785 $161.90
2Q14 994 $469,107 $171.46

 

Somewhat surprisingly, the closing rate declined by 4% in the current quarter when compared to
2Q13. This is also reflected in the annualized starts rate, which declined in 2Q14 as well. We are seeing the effects of a slight tempering in demand due to the relatively high sales prices and supply constraints caused by lot and labor shortages, which are noticeable in all three of the MSA’s counties.

Those price increases are on par with Naples, with a similar $75,000 jump in the average sales price, to $469,107. The increase in home size was more modest, at only 7% to 2,736. However, the overall size is one of the largest home sizes in all of South Florida; quite similar to Naples. South Florida also saw the largest increase in price per square foot during this period, rising from
$154/sf to $171/sf, or 11%.

In summary, prices continue to rise, although at a more modest pace, particularly in the past couple of quarters. Homes are getting bigger again, and we are likely to set another record for new home size in 2014. While home appreciation is likely to continue, there’s always the concern that higher prices will crimp demand. Supply constraints, especially in South Florida, might mask a muting in demand, but the other two areas could feel the pinch should prices rise beyond what consumers deem as reasonable.

 

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder              Closings
Lennar 1,450
Gl Homes 630
DR Horton 397
CC Devco Homes 316
Standard PacificHomes 304
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 265
Encore Homebuilders 240
MintoBuilders 226
Toll Brothers 219
TerraGroup 143
  TOTAL       5,640  

 

Jacksonville:

The Jacksonville MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $35,000, or 14% in the 2Q14 when compared to the second quarter of 2013. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Jacksonville Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,122 $249,530 $102.12
3Q13 1,143 $259,474 $103.23
4Q13 1,184 $255,260 $104.84
1Q14 1,165 $272,197 $106.74
2Q14 1,297 $284,114 $109.67

 

Even with this pricing growth the market’s quarterly closing rate increased by over 15% in 2Q14 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 600 units in the 4Q11, to 1,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed between 1,300 and 1,400 units per quarter since.

This indicates the market has reached a point where pricing growth has curbed demand. With the strongest market areas being in northern St. Johns County, it is likely the demand for lower priced housing will push demand out of the urban core. We expect to see stronger growth in new housing construction further south in St. Johns county, as well as in Clay and northern and western Duval County over the coming quarters.

 

Jacksonville,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder             Closings
DR Horton 1,046
DreamFindersHomes LLC (Fl) 384
Lennar 373
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 317
Kb Home 292
Richmond AmericanHomes-MDC 281
Mattamy Homes 251
DavidWeekleyHomes 245
Standard PacificHomes 152
Providence Homes(Fl) 146
TOTAL 3,236

 

Orlando:

The Orlando MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $40,000, or 15% in the 2Q14 when compared to the 2Q13. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Orlando Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,855 $259,978 $109.05
3Q13 1,949 $274,837 $110.84
4Q13 2,088 $290,887 $112.50
1Q14 1,699 $290,197 $112.53
2Q14 1,757 $299,460 $116.71

 

Not surprisingly, the market has felt this pricing pressure as the quarterly closing rate declined by
5% in the second quarter of 2014 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 1,000 units in the 2Q11, to 2,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed in the mid-2,000 range since.

What this ultimately means is that demand will be reduced in the urban core, and increase in the outlying areas as buyers look to find, and builders work to produce more affordable product. Orlando has a mix of buyers with significant international and active adult markets, yet remains primarily a Leisure and Resort Service and Retail Trade job market, catering to first time, first time move-up and multi-generational home buyers.

 

Orlando,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder               Closings
Lennar 922
DR Horton 852
Meritage Homes 581
TheRyland Group,Inc. 484
Kb Home 416
M/IHomes 352
BeazerHomes 341
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 299
TaylorMorrison 299
Standard PacificHomes 287
TOTAL 4,833

 

Florida is not just one market, clearly. Activity levels and pricing power vary from one market to the next, but the entire state is set for growing demand over the next five years. From the Millennials to the Boomers, an even greater influx of residents is coming to the state. Demand from retirees is expected to be a palpable force as 10 million more people reach retirement age in the U.S. over the next 5 years. Generation Y is so far showing a tendency to rent, but that will start to change as more of them start families.

For information contact:
Danielle Fiore
813-443-6504
dfiore@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com
About Hanley Wood
Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

2014 is Ending with Sustained Growth: New Home Supply in Affordable Price Ranges Coming Online

Posted in South Florida Market | Posted on 11-05-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • 3Q14 New Home Starts are flat compared to last quarter
  • Still, the annual starts rate showed its first measurable increase in five quarters
  • Supply is still coming on board at moderate price points, especially in Indian River and St. Lucie counties; while starts under $199k are off 42% YoY this quarter showed a 56% jump in starts between $200-250k

November 2014: Metrostudy’s 3Q14 South Florida new home market showed third quarter starts of 2024 were flat when compared to the previous quarter. The annual pace increased 3.3% to 7,103 over the last quarter, and the annual rate is 3.6% higher than the pace recorded in the third quarter of 2013. This is the first measurable increase in the annual starts pace in five quarters. Constraints in land availability, labor supply, and the cumulative effect of price increases are all factors in dampening the growth of the starts rate.  Restrictive mortgage qualifying standards are also crimping demand.

The annual closings rate of 6,490 was up 3.4% from the previous quarter and is up 15% from one year ago, which extends this upward trend to ten consecutive quarters. Finished, vacant inventory increased 3.4% to 1,232 units from last quarter, and this figure is 13% higher than the third quarter of 2013. Finished, vacant inventory has hovered in the 2 months-of-supply (MOS) range for the past eight quarters, and remains unchanged at 2.3 MOS for the current quarter. The finished-vacant MOS metric is the number of finished-vacant homes divided by the number of move-ins over the last four quarters, then multiplied by twelve. Metrostudy has observed over the years that when this number rises above about 3.0 and stays there, builders tend to reduce prices or make concessions, so Metrostudy monitors this metric closely.

Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory dropped slightly to 21,554, a 36 month supply. This is down 9% from the third quarter of 2013. VDL MOS is calculated by dividing the number of developed lots by the current annual starts pace, and then multiplying by twelve.

Annual Starts by Price Range

dcsf3q

South Florida has two distinct submarkets.  The Treasure Coast (Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties) offer affordable housing, while the Gold Coast (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade) have some of the highest per square foot prices in Florida.  While single family detached home prices average $250,000 or less in the Treasure Coast, new detached homes in the Gold Coast now average $665,000, and the square footage has grown to 3,500 square feet living area.  There is an $80 per square foot difference in pricing between Treasure Coast and Gold Coast single family detached homes.  Price increases are expected to moderate going forward, as current pricing has reached 2004 levels in many markets.

Below are the top 10 communities in South Florida, ranked by annual starts through the third quarter of 2014.

Rank  Community

1        Aragon (Miami-Dade)

2        Aventura Isles (Miami-Dade)

3        Tradition (St. Lucie)

4        Valencia Cove (Palm Beach)

5        Silver Palms (Miami-Dade)

6        Bridges, The (Palm Beach)

7        Kendall Square (Miami-Dade)

8        MiraLago (Broward)

9        Villaggio Reserve (Palm Bch)

10      Venetian Parc (Miami-Dade)

Aragon by Lennar once again claims the top starts spot for the quarter, followed by Aventura Isles, a former starts leader. St. Lucie’s Tradition remains in third place, with four active builders. GL Homes’ Valencia Cove, an active adult community, and The Bridges are fourth and sixth, respectively, while Lennar’s Silver Palms, MiraLago, Kendall Square, and Venetian Parc all make the Top 10 list. Ansca Homes’ newest active adult community, Villaggio Reserve, rounds out the Top 10.

Results by County:

Miami-Dade: Miami-Dade County regained its starts lead this quarter, with an annual starts pace of 2,510, up 11% from the previous quarter, but off 1.3% year over year. Quarterly starts were up 22% from the previous quarter, and were up 38% from 3Q13. Closings were up 36% from a year ago. Finished, vacant inventory is holding steady at 2.4 MOS.

Broward: Quarterly housing starts in Broward County declined 0.9% over the previous quarter, and are down 8.9% from 3Q13. The annual starts pace remains flat at 1,118. Finished, vacant inventory inches up to 2.0 MOS.

Palm Beach: Quarterly housing starts in Palm Beach County are down 22% from the previous quarter and are off 5.5% from 3Q14. Closings were off 6% from the previous quarter, and are down 2.5% from 3Q13. Finished, vacant inventory remains exceptionally low at only 1.2 months of supply.

Treasure Coast: The Treasure Coast includes Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Starts declined 5% while closings increased by 13% over the previous quarter.

For information contact:
David Cobb – 813-443-6504
dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

South Florida Housing Market Metrostudy 2Q14 Survey Results: Despite Regional Constraints, Steady Demand Creates Pricing Pressure

Posted in South Florida Market | Posted on 07-30-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

July 2014: Metrostudy’s 2Q14 survey of the South Florida housing market showed growth constrained by land availability, labor supply, and the cumulative impact of price increases.  While 2Q14 starts increased 22% to 1,996 over 1Q14’s levels, the annual pace dipped slightly to 6,848 as compared to the last quarter.  The annual rate is 5% higher than the annual pace recorded in the second quarter of 2013. For the past four quarters, annual starts activity has stabilized at approximately 6,850.

The annual closings rate of 6,274 was up slightly from the previous quarter and is up 20% from one year ago, which extends this upward trend to nine consecutive quarters. Finished, vacant inventory increased 6% to 1,201 units from last quarter, and this figure is 23% higher than the second quarter of 2013.

Finished, vacant inventory has hovered in the 2 months-of-supply (MOS) range for the past seven quarters, and stands at 2.3 MOS for the current quarter.  The low rate of new home inventory is a sign that builders are able to sell almost every home they start.  Also, labor and land constraints are keeping the supply of new homes from getting out of balance with demand.

Vacant, developed lot (VDL) inventory dropped slightly to 21,930, a 38 month supply. This is down from 69 months-of-supply in the second quarter of 2012.  “The supply of vacant developed lots varies across the six county region,” notes David Cobb, Director of Metrostudy’s South Florida region.  “Lots are plentiful and relatively cheap (by South Florida standards) in St. Lucie and Indian River counties.  Lot supply is not keeping up with demand in Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties.”

We are seeing a change in the price distribution of new homes started in the region, as starts for homes priced under $200k have precipitously declined  As per the chart below, you can see that more homes are being started in the over $400k range: .

Annual Starts by Price Range: 

 

“Sales prices jumped significantly in 2013 as the housing recovery gained traction in South Florida,” notes Cobb.  “In 2014, prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace than the previous year, indicating the possibility that current sales prices may be reaching the tipping point with consumers.”

Below are the top 10 communities in South Florida, ranked by annual starts through the second quarter of 2014:

Rank Community

1       Aragon (Miami-Dade)

2       Aventura Isles (Miami-Dade)

3       Tradition (St. Lucie)

4       Miralago Parkland (Broward)

5       Silver Palms (Miami-Dade)

6       Kendall Square (Miami-Dade)

7       Canyon Trails (Palm Beach)

8       Valencia Cove (Palm Beach)

9       Bridges, The (Palm Beach)

10     Abacoa (Palm Beach)

“Aragon by Lennar claims the top starts spot for the quarter, followed by Aventura Isles, the former starts leader,” said Cobb.  “St. Lucie’s Tradition continues to do well, and rises to third place. Lennar’s Miralago puts the Parkland submarket on the map, and it continues to lead with Silver Palms and Kendall Square. GL Homes adds three top sellers with Canyon Trails, Valencia Cove, and the Bridges, while Pulte/DiVosta’s Abacoa rounds out the top 10.”

Results by County:

Miami-Dade:  Miami-Dade County loses its lead to Palm Beach County this quarter, with an annual starts pace of 2,242, down 8% from the previous quarter and off 7% year over year. However, quarterly starts rebounded 42% from the previous quarter. Closings are up 26% from a year ago. Finished, vacant inventory stands at 2.4 MOS.

Broward: Housing starts in Broward County rose 5% over the previous quarter. The annual starts pace remains flat at 1,089, due to land constraints in the county. Finished, vacant inventory drops further to 1.4 MOS.

Palm Beach: Housing starts in Palm Beach County are up 6% from the previous quarter and are up 12% year over year. Closings were off 8% from the previous quarter, but are up 7% annually. Finished, vacant inventory remains low at 1.4 months of supply.

Treasure Coast:  The Treasure Coast includes Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties. Starts are up 4% and closings increased by 10% over the previous quarter.

For information contact: David Cobb @ 813-443-6504
Email dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Is there opportunity for lot development in South Florida? Why or why not…and where?

Posted in National Housing Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 06-30-2014 | Written by David Cobb

With South Florida’s housing recovery well under way, it is no surprise that backhoes and bulldozers are once again in action all across South Florida.  So, let’s take a county-by-county look at lot inventory and see where we stand.

Metrostudy’s South Florida region is comprised of eight counties.  Six are on the east coast – Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade, and two are on the west coast – Lee and Collier.

We will start with Indian River County.  We see that the annual start rate has improved from 160 new home starts in the first quarter of 2010 to 426 in the first quarter of 2014, a 166% increase.  Vacant developed lot inventory (“VDL”) stands at 4,147, reflecting a 117 month supply at current absorption levels.  Moreover, there are an additional 3,703 lots actively under development, so we can make a general assumption that, for the time being, Indian River County has more than enough lots in the pipeline to satisfy current demand.

Next up is St. Lucie County, with the largest future lot inventory in South Florida at 70,558 units.  St. Lucie’s annual start rate has improved from 67 starts in 2010 to 394 in 2014, a 488% increase.  Vacant developed lot inventory is 6,712, representing a staggering 204 month (17 year) supply of ready-to-build-on lots.  Even so, there are an additional 3,133 lots in the development stage, which implies that many of the VDL lots are in “B” and “C” locations.  Otherwise, why develop more lots? Read the rest of this entry »

Harry Potter Casts a Spell on Florida’s Economy

Posted in Central Florida Market, In The News, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

anthony cJune 5 (Bloomberg) –Florida’s employment picture has improved faster than any other state since the financial crisis — and some Floridians says that’s because Harry Potter has been working his wizardry in their state.

Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports from Orlando.

See full interview here

Metrostudy Regional Director – Anthony Crocco

Metrostudy South Florida Market Analyses at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit

Posted in National Housing Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 06-04-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

David CobbBuilders in Broward County are getting creative by converting old golf courses into lots to meet constrained supply, explains Metrostudy’s David Cobb in his market overview at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit. The five diverse submarkets and eight counties that make up South Florida are seeing concentrated housing starts, affordable home building on the Treasure Coast, and steady growth in the region.

Metrostudy Markets Analyses at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit

Posted in Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Las Vegas Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-02-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

The housing recovery hasn’t been a one-size-fits-all proposition. In Northern California, affordability remains a constant hurdle, while Tampa, Fla., and Las Vegas are clawing their way back after dramatic losses during the recession. In Dallas and South Florida, the markets are so strong that builders are being forced to come up with creative ways to manufacture lots. Raleigh, N.C., is also experiencing shirking supply but has recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession. And in Houston, buoyed by the strong energy sector, home prices have risen 17%. These were just some of the observations that came out from Metrostudy’s regional directors at Hanley Wood’s Housing Leadership Summit in Dana Point, Calif., in May. Check out the videos from the discussion below.

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Building the Case for Active Adult on the Treasure Coast

Posted in Central Florida Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, South Florida Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by David Cobb

There’s always a discussion when an active adult oriented community is planned as to whether it should be age restricted (55+ only) or age targeted. One argument holds that an age restricted community is still preferred by older buyers, who simply don’t want children permanently in their neighborhood. This will attract enough buyers to meet the absorptions expected by the builder, so the argument goes. The other argument is that with careful planning of the community and the right product, you’ll get buyers of all ages, including the active adult purchaser. Both are probably winning strategies as there are many success stories of each type, but there’s no question that the age-restricted active adult community is still popular. Read the rest of this entry »

South Florida Housing Market Metrostudy 1Q14 Survey Results: Despite Positive Job Numbers, Housing Starts have Plateaued: Land Availability, Labor Supply and Price Increases Threaten Future Growth

Posted in South Florida Market | Posted on 05-06-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 6, 2014: March 2014 was Florida’s 44th consecutive month with positive job growth, and at 6.3%, the state’s unemployment rate remains below the national average of 6.7%. The pace of new home construction in South Florida improved by 16.6% in the first quarter of 2014 with 1,659 housing starts, versus 1,423 in the prior quarter. This level of home building is only 1.3% higher than in the first quarter of 2013, and is 18% off the 2013 peak attained in the second quarter of that year.

On an annual basis, starts remained flat at 6,903 when compared to the previous quarter, but the annual rate is up 19% from the first quarter of 2013. The annual start rate has plateaued at 6,800- 6,900 for the past three quarters. The plateau in starts can be attributed to several factors, including constraints in land availability, labor supply, and the cumulative effect of price increases. How this will play out in 2014 remains to be seen, but it is likely to put upward pressure on prices for the rest of the year.

Highlights by County

Miami-Dade: Miami-Dade once again leads the six county market in annual starts, although the number, 517, is down 12% from 1Q13. Still, that represents a 22% increase from 4Q13, and four of the top ten communities are located in Miami-Dade. Completions declined 34.6% from the previous quarter, when builders pushed to finish homes by the end of the year. Vacant inventory dropped to 1.8 months of supply, down from 3.1 months in 4Q13.

Broward: 1Q14 Housing starts in Broward County jumped 65% from 4Q13, driven by construction activity in Parkland. Finished, vacant inventory remains very tight at only 1.6 months of supply – making eight consecutive quarters in which this rate remains below 2 months.

Palm Beach: Housing starts in Palm Beach County surged 11.2% from the previous quarter and are up 15.1% YoY. Completions increased by 19% to 560, and the 1,170 homes under construction represent the highest level of activity in over six years. Finished, vacant inventory remains low at 1.3 months of supply, and as with Broward, has been below two months of supply since mid-2012.

Martin: This land-constrained county saw starts drop by 38.7% QoQ, while completions increased by 44%. Finished, vacant months-of-supply increased from 2.6 to 3.7 months.

St. Lucie: St. Lucie’s starts and completion rates have improved substantially from one year ago. The Tradition community continues to lead the county in housing activity.

Indian River: Starts are up 30.3% QoQ, and finished vacant inventory increased slightly to 3.3 months of supply.

For information contact: david cobb @ 239.220.7023
email dcobb@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

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