INLAND EMPIRE 2Q15: Affordability Continues to be an Issue; Limited Inventory Driving Buyers to the Resale Market

Posted in Inland Empire Market, Southern California Market | Posted on 08-11-2015 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • 2Q15’s Annual Starts stand at 6,371, up 6.6% from 1Q15. Year-over-year annual starts experienced a 25.3% jump from 2Q14 levels.
  • Housing affordability and loan qualifying still remains an issue as it pertains to new home development and sales.
  • There is an approximate $126k difference between a median- priced new and median-priced resale home in the Inland Empire, due in part to limited inventory of new product that can directly compete with existing resale inventory in prime locations.

AUGUST 2015 – Metrostudy’s 2Q15 survey of the Inland Empire’s new home market shows that starts and closings collectively finished the quarter with Annual Starts increasing from 5,975 in 1Q15 to 6,371 in 2Q15 or up 6.6%. Year-over-year annual starts experienced a significant jump from 5,084 starts in 2Q14 or +25.3%. The current housing inventory monthly supply stands at 10.0 months, slightly higher than 9.3 months in 1Q15. For the same period a year earlier, housing supply stood at 8 months. Vacant Developed Lots decreased from 16,030 lots in 1Q15 to 15,563 lots in 2Q15, with monthly supply dropping from 32.2 months to 29.3 months during the same period. Annual Closings increased from 5,052 in 1Q15 to 5,267 in 2Q15, or up approximately 4.3%. Since 1Q15, quarterly closings have increased 6.8%.

“In general, the Inland Empire is experiencing a relatively stable economic environment,” said Dennis Handler, Director of Metrostudy’s Southern California region. “Optimism for gradual economic improvement remains strong and expected to continue through the end of 2015. Housing affordability and loan qualifying still remains an issue as it pertains to new home development and sales. Today, there is an approximate $126k difference between a median- priced new and median-priced resale home in the Inland Empire, due in part to limited inventory of new product that can directly compete with existing resale inventory in prime locations. However, the factors that fuel demand for new home sales are favorably projected to move steadily in a positive direction throughout the balance of the year and into 2016.”

The highest volume of 2Q15 starts occurred in the following price segments: $300k – $400k (38% of starts) and $400k – $500k (32%). Approximately 80% and 82% of housing inventory and VDL inventory falls below the $500k range, respectively.

Starts by County (1Q15 to 2Q15)

  • Riverside County quarterly starts increased from 928 to 1,193 (+28.5%), and annual starts increased from 3,928 to 4,041 (+2.9%).
  • San Bernardino County quarterly starts increased from 585 to 670 (+14.5%), and annual starts increased from 2,047 to 2,330 (+13.8%).

Closings By County (1Q15 to 2Q15)

  • Riverside County quarterly closings decreased from 894 to 887 (-0.7%), and annual closings increased from 3,428 to 3,587 (+4.6%).
  • San Bernardino County quarterly closings increased from 386 to 480 (+24.3%), and annual closings increased from 1,624 to 1,680 (+3.4%).

Vacant Developed Lot Inventory (1Q15 to 2Q15

  • Riverside County VDL’s decreased from 8,406 lots to 7,862 lots (-6.5%). VDL monthly supply is 23.3 months.
  • San Bernardino County VDL’s increased from 7,624 lots to 7,701 lots (+1%). VDL monthly supply is 40 months.

“Due to the recession, demand for new homes fell sharply, which forced builders to focus on selling off existing inventory before renewed builder confidence gradually reentered the market to ramp-up inventory again,” said Handler. “Within the past few years, employment gains have increased at a faster pace than the increase in housing supply, which now has created a situation of strong demand relative to limited supply, especially at the lower-to-middle range of the housing price spectrum. Consequently, permit activity for both single-family and multi-family construction has experienced a moderate upward trend.”

In 2Q15, the Inland Empire real estate market experienced similar characteristics to the broader Southern California market. Resale transactions ramped up due primarily to typical seasonal buying patterns. Albeit, the market is showing some strength with increased listings and closings, moderate price appreciation, shorter days-on-market, and higher absorption rates, but the question remains is this a trend that can be sustained throughout the balance of the year.

New construction annual starts and annual closings have continued to display further separation as closings maintained a fairly flat trend through 1Q15 and showed a slight upward shift in 2Q15. The pipeline of vacant developed lots that feeds housing inventory rests at just over a 29-month supply, while housing supply is currently at a 10-month supply and rising again. Since the 2Q14, finished vacant home supply has increased from three to four months, which indicates the market is still dragging due primarily to ongoing home buyer affordability issues and available product inventory at lower price points.

For information contact: Dennis Handler
email: dhandler@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

INLAND EMPIRE HOUSING 1Q15: A Market in Search of Qualified Buyers; Affordability Issues are Key

Posted in Inland Empire Market, Southern California Market | Posted on 05-20-2015 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • Metrostudy’s 1Q15 survey shows the Annual Starts rate in the Inland Empire is up 23.1% YoY;
  • Affordability concerns are keeping potential buyers in the rental market, with rental occupancy rates averaging 95% across Southern California
  • The difference between new and resale median prices is over $135,000 in the Inland Empire, with less than 30% of home buyers currently able to afford a new home

May 2015 – Metrostudy’s 1Q15 survey of the housing market in the Inland Empire showed the annual starts rate at 6,002, up 6.8% from 4Q14. Year-over-year annual starts experienced a significant jump from 4,875 starts in 1Q14 or up 23.1%. The current housing inventory monthly supply stands at 9.5 months, not much different than 4Q14, but it is 2.3 months higher than 1Q14. Vacant Developed Lots increased from 16,597 lots in 4Q14 to 17,002 lots in 1Q15, with monthly supply dropping from 35.5 months to 34 months during the same period. Annual Closings increased from 4,795 in 4Q14 to 5,059 in 1Q15, or up approximately 5.5%. Since 4Q14, quarterly closings have decreased from 1,490 to 1,296 or down 13%.

 “The highest volume of 1Q15 starts occurred in the following price segments: $300k – $400k (37% of starts) and $400k – $500k (28%),” said Dennis Handler, Director of Metrostudy’s Southern California region. “Approximately 81% and 85% of housing inventory and VDL inventory falls below the $500k range, respectively.

Starts by County (4Q14 to 1Q15)

Riverside County starts increased from 702 to 945 (+34.6%), and annual starts increased from 3,790 to 3,956 (+42.6%).

San Bernardino County quarterly starts increased from 490 to 583 (+19%), and annual starts increased from 1,827 to 2,046 (+12%).

Closings By County (4Q14 to 1Q15)

Riverside County closings decreased from 1027 to 910 (-11.4%), and annual closings increased from 3,246 to 3,444 (+6.2%).

San Bernardino County closings decreased from 463 to 386 (-16.6%), and annual closings increased from 1,549 to 1,615 (+4.3%).

Vacant Developed Lot Inventory (4Q14 to 1Q15)

Riverside County VDL’s increased from 8,804 lots to 8,995 lots (+2.2%). VDL monthly supply is 27.3 months.

San Bernardino County VDL’s increased from 7,793 lots to 8,007 lots (+2.7%). VDL monthly supply is 47 months.

In 1Q15, the Inland Empire real estate market experienced similar characteristics to the broader Southern California market, as resale transactions dropped off considerably. However, resale inventory remains fairly strong at a 6-month supply and prices of both new and resale homes have displayed positive appreciation. Unfortunately, the average days on market for resale homes remain in the 115-day range with no foreseeable change in this trend. New construction annual starts and annual closings have continued to display further separation as closings maintained a fairly flat trend through half of 1Q15 while starts began to accelerate. Since 2011, annual starts and closings have more-or-less been in-line with each other offering positive energy and confidence for the builder community. In addition, inventory levels have begun to creep up, specifically finished vacant home inventory. Overall, the Inland Empire market appears to have lost some momentum due to a drop in consumer demand and limited affordable product supply.

“Fundamentally, the economic conditions are favorably moving in the right direction due to consistent job growth and lower unemployment, low interest rates, and growing consumer confidence,” said Handler. “Affordability and number of qualified buyers are still primary factors that have a significant impact on the new home buyer market. The difference between new and resale median prices is over $135,000 in the Inland Empire, with less than 30% of home buyers currently able to afford a new home, which combined with limited product inventory at the lower-end of the price spectrum, has major implications on the home building industry through the balance of 2015. Alternatively, the rental market continues to benefit as rental rates are expected to remain stable with occupancy rates averaging 95% across Southern California.”

In general, the Inland Empire is experiencing a relatively stable economic environment. Optimism for gradual economic improvement remains strong and expected to continue through 2Q15. The job market is also maintaining a steady flow of new jobs with unemployment rates continuing to move closer to the national average. Interest rates are still low, with no foreseeable increase in the short-term, and the housing market is also operating at a stable and manageable pace.

For information contact: Dennis Handler
email: dhandler@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

CALIFORNIA COASTAL COUNTIES 1Q15 Housing: Affordability is the Story as Production Moves to Higher Price Points

Posted in Southern California Market | Posted on 05-20-2015 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • Metrostudy’s survey of 1Q15 new home starts in the Coastal Counties shows a decline of 30% from 1Q14
  • Affordability is key as starts at lower price points are squeezed out – 28% of 1Q15 starts were over $900k
  • In both Los Angeles and Orange counties, less than 30% of home buyers can currently afford to purchase a new home, which combined with limited product inventory at the lower-end of the price spectrum, has major implications on the home building industry moving forward through 2015.

May 2015 – Metrostudy’s 1Q15 survey of the new home market in California’s coastal counties – Los Angeles, Orange, and Ventura – shows that annual new home starts stand at 8,040, down 9.2% from 4Q14 levels. Year-over-year first quarter starts experienced a significant decline from 2,731 starts to 1,910 or -30%. The current housing inventory monthly supply stands at 8.9 months, which is also just slightly up from 8.6 months in 4Q14. Vacant Developed Lots increased from 7,350 lots to 7,410 lots in 1Q15 or from a 10-month supply to 11.1 month supply as Builders continue to assess the absorption rates across their new communities before adding more to the current supply. Annual Closings decreased from 8,259 in 4Q14 to 8,034 in 1Q15, or down approximately 3%. Since 4Q14, quarterly closings have decreased from 2,104 to 1,875 or 11%.

 The highest volume of 1Q15 starts occurred in these major price segments: $900k< (28% of starts), $400k – $500k (16%), $500k – $600k (15%) and $600k-$700k (12%),” said Dennis Handler, Director of Metrostudy’s Southern California region. “Approximately 56% and 50% of housing inventory and VDL inventory falls above the $700k range, respectively.”

Starts by County (4Q14 to 1Q15)

  • Los Angeles County starts increased from 654 to 889 (+36%), yet annual starts decreased from 3,810 to 3,415 (-10.4%).
  • Orange County quarterly starts decreased from 950 to 888 (-6.5%), and annual starts decreased from 4,383 to 3,985 (-9%).
  • Ventura County starts decreased from 165 to 133 (-19.4%), and annual starts decreased from 668 to 640 (-4.2%).

Closings By County (4Q14 to 1Q15)

  • Los Angeles County closings decreased from 851 to 760 (-11%), and annual closings decreased from 3,464 to 3,210 (-7%).
  • Orange County closings decreased from 1,158 to 932 (-19.5%), and annual closings decreased from 4,293 to 4,258 (-1%).
  • Ventura County closings increased from 95 to 183 (+93%), and annual closings increased from 502 to 566 (+12.7%).

Vacant Developed Lot Inventory (4Q14 to 1Q15)

  • Los Angeles County VDL’s increased from 3,005 lots to 3,170 lots (+5.5%). VDL monthly supply is 11.1 months.
  • Orange County VDL’s decreased from 3,565 lots to 3,479 lots (-2.4%). VDL monthly supply is 10.5 months.
  • Ventura County VDL’s decreased from 780 lots to 761 lots (-2.4%). VDL montly supply is 14.3 months.

The Southern California real estate market has continued to display a slowdown in 1Q15 as new construction annual starts and closings have begun to teeter down along with declining resale transactions and longer average days on market. Fundamentally, the economic conditions are favorably moving in the right direction due to consistent job growth and lower unemployment, low interest rates, and growing consumer confidence.

“Affordability and number of qualified buyers, however, are still primary factors that have a significant impact on the new home market,” said Handler. “The difference between new and resale median prices is over $250,000 in Orange County and over $100,000 in Los Angeles County. In both counties, less than 30% of home buyers can currently afford to purchase a new home, which combined with limited product inventory at the lower-end of the price spectrum, has major implications on the home building industry moving forward through 2015. Alternatively, the rental market continues to benefit as rental rates are expected to remain stable with occupancy rates averaging 95% across Southern California.”

Going forward through 2015, builders should expect the Southern California market to continue along a fairly uneventful path. As it stands today, traffic at subdivisions is moderately improving, yet conversions are still struggling to stay above 1.7% and average weekly sales contracts are barely above one per week. Builders are competing for a very small buyer pool relative to the resale market, which is going to make effective marketing strategies and a strong understanding of buyer segmentation and preferences even more important in order to attract and convert new home buyer prospects.

For information contact:
Dennis Handler
dhandler@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

 

We’ve got LOTS to Talk About

Posted in National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Sacramento Market, Salt Lake City Market, Southern California Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hAs we approach the end of the year, it is always important to start to imagine what next year will look like for housing.  I think about that question every day, debating it, analyzing it, looking at the data, and imagining different scenarios.

Over the past few years the public on builders have been announcing that they have wanted to increase their community counts. To that end, large amounts of land were bought in 2012 and 2013 that are now being seen in the data as new lot “deliveries.”  We are seeing strong increases in new lot development in markets all around The country.  (“Lot deliveries” means the number of lots brought to the stage where they are ready for a builder to begin construction — roads and infrastructure in place).

Lot Deliveries Catching up with Demand

3q BH

Let’s take a look at some national trends as well as some specific local market trends, which can lend a glimpse into the direction of single-family housing starts for 2015.

Nationwide, lot deliveries are still trailing housing starts by a tiny margin, but the gap has finally nearly closed as lot deliveries rise sharply.  In some markets, the lines have crossed (meaning that lot deliveries are now running at a pace higher than starts), and that is a bullish sign for starts in 2015.

In the broad area we call “Southern California,” lot deliveries are running at an annual pace of 17,587 (during the four quarters ending 3Q14), and that is well above the pace of a year ago (11,784), and is also above the annual pace of housing starts (15,817).  These factors both suggest immediate plans to increase home construction volume.

In Salt Lake City, annual lot deliveries are up slightly, to 7,905 in the four quarters ending 3Q14.  This level is also higher than the last 4 quarters worth of starts (7,739).

In Tampa, lot deliveries have totaled 7,301 during the past year, up from an annual pace of 3,926 a year ago.  This level is far higher than annual starts, now running at 5,995.

In Northern California, lot deliveries are running 13,098 annually, up from 8,826 four quarters ago.  The pace of lot deliveries has been outrunning starts, which are at 10,918, but very likely to move higher, based upon these new communities and lots.

These examples might not have been too surprising, but here is one that is (or maybe I should say “encouraging”):  Phoenix.  Lot deliveries are running at 14,914, up versus 8,608 a year earlier.  This recent pace is in excess of the pace of housing starts, which has run 13,460 over the past four quarters.

What to make of this:

* On the demand side, the “case” for an elevated level of production hinges on higher job growth, which should bring with it better consumer sentiment and the release of more pent-up household formations.

* On the supply side, builders have been pushing for higher community count, and that means more lot development.

This surge in lot development will very likely result in an increase in the pace of home building next year.  The trajectory of housing demand is flatter, however, than when the builders bought the raw land that is now being turned into these lots.  In some cases, builders will have to price their homes at a level lower than what they had assumed when they originally underwrote the land purchase, or face a slower absorption pace.

That said, the long-term trajectory is decidedly upward.

 

Housing starts up strong, with some stand-out markets

Posted in Atlanta Condo Market, Charlotte Market, Inland Empire Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Nashville Market, National Housing Market, Reno Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market | Posted on 08-19-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

See Top 10 Markets for New Residential  Construction Here 

brad hHousing starts numbers out today surprised many observers with its strength (+15.7%), but we find it to have been in line with our actual counts, released earlier this month. As we predicted, last month’s Census estimate was revised upward, and now the numbers are back in line with the trends revealed by the Metrostudy roll-ups.

The last release of housing starts data from the Census Bureau caused undue alarm about a collapse of activity in the South.  The Census release had shown a 29.6% decline for total starts in the South, but as we pointed out at the time, this exaggerated the weakness in the south. As a matter of fact Metrostudy’s research shows that several markets in the south are up, both based on prior quarter results, and year ago. Raleigh was down 5% versus a year ago, but Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, and South Florida showed increases.

Metrostudy’s data show that some of the most “beaten-down” markets are now doing better.  In Las Vegas, for example, housing starts were up 16% from 1st quarter 2014 to 2nd quarter 2014, and Phoenix showed a 12.3% increase quarter-on-quarter (though it is still down sharply year-on-year). Housing starts in Chicago were up 87% quarter-on-quarter, and up 30% year-on-year.  Naples Florida showed double-digit gains, both quarterly and annually.

Some significant trends were evident in Metrostudy’s data in California. Housing starts in the Riverside area rose 48.5% quarter on quarter, and are up 14% year-on-year.

We are seeing an increase in lot development in Riverside as lot shortages around the I-15 Corridor have intensified. The Inland Empire is developing its own economy, with 3% job growth, meaning that is it is no longer just a bedroom community for L.A.

Housing starts in Northern California rose 92% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, and are up 19% year-on-year. Starts there are at a record high since the boom. Contra Costa and Alameda County had particularly strong increases.

Also see, Brad Hunter discuss the promising increases in the Residential Remodeling Index and New Residential Construction this month on Bloomberg TV.

 

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Inland Empire positioned for explosive growth

Posted in Inland Empire Market, San Diego Market, Southern California Market | Posted on 07-25-2014 | Written by Steve Johnson

steve j Local and regional prognosticators are proclaiming the Inland Empire region (Riverside and San Bernardino counties) as positioned well to shortly regain it’s historical position as the leader of California’s new home production.  While often referred to as a bedroom community located east of Los Angeles and Orange counties, the Inland Empire is home to 4.2 million residents and the peak of the last cycle the region delivered a staggering 30,000 new homes per year. Land developers could not produce enough lot inventory fast enough.  It was a daily struggle to maintain a minimum supply to feed the housing demand. Read the rest of this entry »

Over-reactions

Posted in National Housing Market, Northern California Market, San Francisco Market, Southern California Market | Posted on 06-30-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hHousing always swings much more wildly up and down than does the general economy.  A survey that came out a couple of weeks ago drove home for me the reason why.  The recent survey, from Hart/MacArthur, said that 7 in 10 people believe we are still in the middle of the [housing/economy] crisis, or that the worst is yet to come.  That seems unduly pessimistic, given that job growth is improving, and that can only help incomes and housing demand.

That said, undue optimism reigned before.  I had to go back to some old notes to make sure I remembered correctly just how wild people’s expectations were during the boom.  According to Fortune Magazine in 2005, a survey done by Shiller and Case revealed that 28% of homeowners surveyed in Boston, LA, and San Francisco believed that home values in those areas would continue rising at 20% per year for the next ten years.

Neighborhoods, not Subdivisions, are the new trend in Southern California

Posted in Inland Empire Market, Southern California Market | Posted on 05-07-2014 | Written by Steve Johnson

This is not your typical recovery from a recession in Southern California. What seems to be missing is the sizzle produced by the Baby Boomers in the 1980’s or 90’s acting in mass seeking shelter. These boomers who changed every tenet of society as they moved through life’s cycles disregarded double digit interest rates or overnight price increases and committed to buy a new home without impunity. Vast acreage was dedicated to salmon colored roofs and cookie cutter subdivisions, the joke was often told of the couple on a date night that had a few to many and wound up in the wrong house. Read the rest of this entry »

Coastal New Home Recovery, steady as she goes

Posted in Southern California Market | Posted on 02-13-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Riverside, CA – February 13, 2014) More inventory and slowing price appreciation will take place in 2014. The residential housing markets will be driven by organic localized employment growth in the next year which continues to plod along. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The L.A. Coastal market (O.C./L.A./Ventura Counties) continues with a slow but steady recovery in the fourth quarter 2013 Total closings for 4Q13 were up 25 % from 3Q13 with 1,756 homes closed, and up 6 % compared to 4Q12. Starts for 4Q13 were 1,723 up 3 % from 3Q13 and up a solid 21 % from the fourth quarter of 2012. “The tech coast recovery remains solid,” said Steve Johnson, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Southern California Market.

Single-family inventory, which is comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and model homes totaled 5,948 representing 11.3 months of supply (not defined as sold or unsold). The majority of inventory in the region are built to contract (presold). Finished vacant inventory has decreased 8 % throughout the Coastal Southern California market, in 4Q13. This represents 30% of the total inventory. Historically finished vacant inventory comprised 18 % of the total inventory. In Los Angeles finished vacant represented 41 % of the total inventory, predominately attached product with 1,220 units. Orange County finished vacant represented 15% in 4Q13, Ventura County finished vacant decreased to 17 % of total inventory.

VDL inventory has increased in the L.A. Coastal market with 6,504 Detached Vacant Developed Lots (improved lots) representing a 19.7 months of supply. Attached Vacant Developed Lots are 2,626 representing a 14.7 months of supply. “Remaining Finished lot inventory is not proximate to employment centers,” said Johnson.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.