(Baltimore, MD– April 26, 2012) The Baltimore housing market hopes to see continued increases in new housing production, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Baltimore MSA continues to see strong job growth, adding 24,200 jobs from February 2011 to February 2012. The unemployment rate in Baltimore continues to be well below the national average at 7.5%.

The Baltimore resale market weakened between 2005 and 2007 as inventories grew and sales slowed. “There is still optimism in the region that inventories will continue to recede, creating an opportunity for adding more product to the market,” said Melissa Jonas, regional director of Metrostudy’s Mid-Atlantic division.

New homebuyer traffic was 10% above the level seen in 1Q11. New housing production has picked up significantly over the past year, with the 1Q12 starts up 27% over 1Q11. Closings in the first quarter are up 3% compared to the previous year, making a second quarter in a row with a slight increase in closings.

Overall new housing inventories now sit at 5,849 units, which represent 9.5 months of supply. “Over 40% of these new units in inventory are condominiums that are under construction or sitting finished but vacant,” said Jonas. “Removing the condos from the equation, we see that single-family and townhome segments only have a 6.7 month supply of new units available, which is actually low.”

“Looking forward we hope to see continued increases in new housing production as the resale market and the economy as a whole recovers. In Maryland, this will begin with the Washington DC suburbs, with Baltimore lagging by several quarters or more,” said Jonas.

For information contact:
melissa jonas @ 703.244.5229
email melissaj@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Baltimore, MD– January 19, 2012) The Baltimore housing market stabilized during 2011 and suggesting improvement in 2012, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Baltimore MSA started 591 homes in 4Q2011, almost unchanged versus a year prior, while it closed over 800 homes, an increase of 8% compared to the prior year. “We continue to close more units then we start, effectively reducing new housing inventories and tightening up the local market.” said Wenhold.

Looking at the new single family and townhome numbers, the MSA has 6.0 months of supply, which is relatively tight. “Given the cycle time to start a new home, frame it, finish it and sell it, this is actually a bit below what it should be during a normalized market,” said Wenhold.

The gradual improvement of the new housing market is a direct result of a drop in resale inventories. As of June 2011, the resale market of Baltimore has a 6.9 month supply of listings, down from 10.0 months a year prior. “In 2011, there have been far fewer new listings added to the market than normal, while home sales have been increasing. This has allowed the market to consume the excess inventory, creating much more stabile and viable market conditions.” said Wenhold. “This reduced inventory creates opportunity for new housing communities, as buyers can no longer find what they are looking for in the existing home market.”

“Looking forward we hope to see the Baltimore existing home market continue to improve. We would then expect new housing starts and closings to begin a slow rebound in early 2012 as the local and national economy continues its slow recovery,” said Wenhold.

For information contact:
Kenneth Wenhold @ 703.961.1776
email: kwenhold@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Baltimore, MD– August 1, 2011) The Baltimore housing market stabilized during 2Q11 and suggesting improvement through the remainder of 2011, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

As of June 2011, the resale market of Baltimore has a 9.7 month supply of listings, down slightly from 10.0 months a year prior. “In 2011, there have been far fewer new listings added to the market, while new contracts written over the last two months are up roughly 30%,” said Wenhold. “This creates optimism in the region that existing home inventories will recede over the remainder of the year.”

In the new home market, the Baltimore MSA started 815 homes in 2Q2011, down only 4% versus 2Q10, while it closed 818 homes, an increase of 7% compared to the prior year. “This is the first time in five years we have seen starts and closings this tight, indicating that we are producing nearly the same number of units that we are consuming, which is an indication of a stable market.” said Wenhold. New housing inventory sits at 9.7 months of supply, down considerably from the previous year. However much of this inventory is condominium development in a handful of projects. Looking at only the single family and townhome numbers, we see that the MSA has a 7.1 months of supply, which is considerably tighter.

“Looking forward we hope to see the existing home market stabilize and begin to improve. We would then expect starts and closings to begin a slow rebound in late 2011 as the resale market tightens and the economy as a whole recovers,” said Wenhold. “Look for the Washington DC suburbs to improve first, with Baltimore lagging by several quarters.”

For information contact:
kenneth wenhold @ 703.961.1776
email kwenhold@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Baltimore, MD– May 1, 2011) The Maryland resale market is nearing equilibrium and new housing market improving, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

As of March 2011, the resale market of the Baltimore region stands at an 8.8 month supply of listings, which is above equilibrium, but lower than the 9.5 months of supply seen at this time last year. Sales are up year over year, despite the absence of the Federal Tax Credit, and new units listed is down substantially over 2010, “a positive sign as fewer units are being added on the supply side,” said Kenneth Wenhold, director of Metrostudy’s Mid-Atlantic division.

New housing production has been steady, down only 4% in 1Q2011 versus 1Q2010, “again a good sign considering we had the stimulus in effect in early 2010,” said Wenhold. Closings in the quarter were down 10% versus the previous year. However, new home closings exceeded new housing starts for the fourteenth straight quarter, reducing new home inventories and preventing a build up of excess supply in the market. “This is what you would hope to see,” said Wenhold, “as adding an excess of new homes to the market would be throwing fuel on the fire and make matters worse.”

Overall new housing inventories now sit at 6,525 units, the lowest number of units seen in the last five years, which represents 9.5 months of supply. However nearly two thirds of these are condominium units which are contained in just a handful of distressed high-rise properties, and without them there is a 6.0 months of supply of units, “which is more reasonable,” said Wenhold.

The Baltimore MSA is now experiencing significant job growth, adding 16,400 jobs over the last year in February, while the unemployment rate continues to hold steady, below the national average. “This improvement in job creation, coupled with the tighter labor markets locally, is providing optimism in the region,”.

“Looking forward we expect to see starts and closings begin to rebound in 2011 as the resale market and the economy as a whole recovers. This will be particularly apparent in the second and third quarter as the prior year figures were depressed by the end of the tax credit,” said Wenhold. “In Maryland, this will begin with the Washington DC suburbs, with Baltimore lagging by several quarters.”

For information contact:
kenneth wenhold @ 703.961.1776
email kwenhold@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

Where: Dutche’s Daughter  Frederick, Maryland

When: Breakfast begins at 8 am, with the Presentation to follow at 8:30 am.

Topics: We will discuss the current market conditions and forecast where we expect the market to head in 2011, with a focus on Frederick County and its growing role in the region.

This is a member-only event.  For an invitation, please contact the Frederick County SMC.

Where: TBD, Downtown Washington, DC

When: Discussion to begin at 8 am.

Topics:  Recent trends which are effecting lenders today, focusing upon the for-sale residential real estate market.  Homebuilder strategies for survival and expansion, as well as outside influences on thier business will be explored. 

This is a member only event.  If you would like to attend, please contact Alex Johns at Wells Farfo at 202-303-2985.

(Baltimore, MD– November 1, 2010) The Maryland new housing market is among the healthiest in the nation, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.  However recent trends in the resale market are giving local experts pause.

“Since the expiration of the tax credit, the Baltimore area resale market continues to slowly soften,” said Kenneth Wenhold, director of Metrostudy’s Northern Virginia division.  Since the beginning of this year, the Baltimore market has seen its months of supply increase by 23% to 10.8 months.  “Sales are down, but the biggest issue is the increase in listings.”

The number of listings in the Baltimore region sits at just over 20,000 units, just a few hundred from the peak seen two years ago.  “Late summer and early fall are periods in the year where you typically do not see large numbers of new listings coming onto the market, and yet August and September showed significant net gains in inventory.”

Read the rest of this entry »

(Baltimore, MD– August 1, 2010) The Maryland resale market is slowly improving while the new housing industry continues to hold its own, according to a recent analysis by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction  in the U.S. Housing market.

“Currently we find that the Maryland resale market around Washington DC is improving, while the Baltimore market continues to tread water,” said Kenneth Wenhold, director of Metrostudy’s Northern Virginia division. As of June 2010, the Washington DC suburbs are still oversupplied at 7.4 months, but slowly improving and is down from the 12.5 months of supply we saw two years ago. The Baltimore region, however, continues to lag the DC suburbs, and currently has 10.0 months of supply.  Sales are now up on a year over year basis; however the number of listings is slowly increasing, which is not allowing sales activity to absorb the excess supply.

“We are also seeing increased activity in the new housing market,” said Wenhold. For the 2nd straight quarter, new housing production increased in the 14 counties tracked by Metrostudy.  Starts were up by 9% in 2Q10 over 2Q09, while closings were down 8% versus the previous year.  Closings just barely exceeded new housing starts for the eleventh straight quarter which reduced new home inventories, preventing a build up of finished vacant units in the market.

Overall new housing inventories now sit at 8,269 units, the lowest in 5 years, which represents 10.3 months of supply. “However, nearly 60% of these new units are condominiums that are under construction or sitting finished but vacant, and many of these units are contained in just a handful of distressed high-rise properties,” said Wenhold.  “These are isolated deals which are skewing the numbers.  Removing the condominiums from the equation and looking only at single family and townhome units, there is only a 5.9-month supply of units, which is actually tight.”

While new housing inventories remain healthy, the main roadblock which could derail the Maryland new home market in the future is a deficiency in the lot supplies.  “There are simply too few lots to accommodate the new construction we are seeing.”  Said Wenhold.  In a normalized market we would expect to see 24 to 28 months of supply, which would be considered equilibrium.  However lot supplies are quickly drying up in the core counties, with Anne Arundel, Montgomery, Howard and Frederick only having 12.8, 13.9, 14.8, and 19.0 months of supply, respectively.  “Given the amount of time it takes to get new projects approved and developed, coupled with increasing new housing starts, these areas are now considered undersupplied.”  And this shortage of supplies will likely result in higher home prices.  “Lot prices continue to increase, and we are already back to near peak lot prices last seen in 2005.  This is passed on to the homebuyer, either in the form of higher prices or smaller homes.”

According to Wenhold, the Washington DC and Baltimore regions will continue to lead the nation as one of the country’s healthiest housing markets.  “Over the next several quarters, we expect to see new housing production and new housing prices continue to increase in the core counties.  But as lot supplies dwindle in the core, the activity will be pushed out to the exurbs,” said Wenhold. “Harford, Washington and Charles, will see increasing activity as builders move out in search of lots.”

For information contact:
kenneth wenhold @ 703.961.1776
email kwenhold@metrostudy.com

(Baltimore, MD—May 7, 2010) The Maryland housing market is showing marked signs of improvement, according to Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that conducts a count of all new housing units in subdivisions within the market area each quarter. Sales of resale homes are now up on a year over year basis, while the number of listings is falling as the increased sales activity absorbs the excess supply. Contracts are up in every single submarket, and up by over 50% in many, a sign that activity should continue to increase, further reducing inventories. As of March 2010, the Maryland resale market is still oversupplied, with 8.3-months of supply of listings, though several of the core counties have dropped below the 6.0 month threshold which represents equilibrium.

“Looking forward we expect to see starts and closings continue to rebound in 2010 as the resale market and the economy as a whole recovers,” said Kenneth Wenhold, director of Metrostudy’s suburban Maryland division. “In Maryland, this will likely continue into late 2010, resulting in increased activity during the second half of the year.”

During the first quarter of 2010, new homebuyer traffic declined slightly, but new home contracts were up versus the same period in 2009. “Conversion rates are approaching the highest level seen since 2004,” said Wenhold, “At the same time,  cancellation rates have dropped to 16%, well below the rate seen at this time last year.”

New housing production increased by 13% in 1Q2010 versus 1Q2009, marking the second straight quarter of gains in construction activity. Closings were down only 1% versus the previous year. Promisingly, though, closings exceeded new housing starts for the tenth straight quarter, reducing new home inventories and preventing a build up of finished vacant units in the market.

Overall new housing inventories now sit at 8,592 units, the lowest number of units seen in the last five years, a 10.5 month supply. “If we remove the condos from the equation, we see that the single family and town home segments are quite tight,” said Wenhold 62% of these new units in inventory are condominiums that are under construction or sitting finished but vacant and many of these units are contained in just a handful of distressed high rise properties. When only single family and townhome housing inventories are considered, the number is reduced to a 5.8-month supply.

The number of vacant developed lots (VDL) continues to erode, as there are only 15,552 VDLs in the entire region. This represents 24.4-months of supply of lots in the overall market. Lot supplies are even lower in the core counties, where a few of the core counties have less than 18 months of supply, indicating that they are lot constrained. “As such, an increase in construction activity this spring will likely result in a significant undersupply of lots in various submarkets, putting upward pressure on pricing and quickly pushing development from the core counties,” said Wenhold.

(Washington, D.C. – Jan. 25, 2010) Metrostudy’s year-end analysis of new housing data showed that the Washington, D.C. housing market is among the best-performing in the nation, said Kenneth Wenhold, director of Metrostudy’s Mid-Atlantic division, at the company’s quarterly housing industry briefing. The analysis indicated that home prices are finally beginning to stabilize, and, in some cases, rebound, as a tightening resale market and a declining level of new homes available for sale begin to push prices upward.

Read the rest of this entry »