(Tampa, FL – April 26, 2012) The Tampa housing market is increasing in housing activity as expected, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Tampa MSA gained 20,200 jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, placing Tampa Bay in the top 20 in the nation for job creation. The unemployment rate decreased to 8.9 % NSA, but remained well above the national average of 8.2%. “It is highly likely we’ll continue to see a local unemployment rate higher than the national average over the next year or two. With a workforce of 1.3 million, the Tampa MSA would need to see the number of unemployed workers drop under 91,000 to report a local unemployment rate under 7%. We’re currently at about 116,500 unemployed workers,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Region.

During 1Q12, 1,040 single family units were started, an increase of 26.8% compared to 1Q11. The annual starts pace increased to 4,201 annual starts, 7.6% higher than last year’s rate. “We expect new starts to be between 5 and 15% higher than 2011 by the end of 2012,” said Polito.

Closings totaled 968 units in 1Q12, 1.8% higher than 1Q11. Annual closings stood at 4,031, which was 10.6% lower than the annual rate at this time last year.

Finished vacant inventory decreased to 1,325 units, down 1.0% compared to 1Q11, and representing a 3.9-month supply. This is up from 3.6 months during 1Q11. “This negative trend and the high months of supply requires a continued focused approach to pricing existing finished vacant units as well as new product,” said Polito.

“Metrostudy forecasted an increase in new home starts for 2012 in a range between 4,200 and 4,600 new units. The current annual start pace of 4,201 is inline with our expectation for the Tampa Bay market. Continued job growth, qualifying for a low mortgage rate, and consumer confidence will all play a part going forward,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Tampa, FL– January 18, 2012) Tampa will likely see an increase in housing activity during 2012, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Tampa MSA gained 26,900 jobs annually through November according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, placing Tampa Bay 7th of 362 MSAs in the US for job creation. “While the Tampa Bay market received mostly positive local economic news during the quarter, the local unemployment rate of 10.3% NSA remained well above the national average of 8.5%. Moreover, Tampa needs to see the number of unemployed drop from the current 134,000 to below 91,000 in order to report a local unemployment rate under 7 percent,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Region.

During 4Q11, 995 single family units were started, up 19.4% compared to 4Q10. The annual starts pace decreased to 4,001 homes, 1.1% lower than last year’s rate. “We expect new starts to be between 5 and 15% higher by the end of 2012,” said Polito.

Closings totaled 993 units, 3.8% higher than 4Q10. Annual closings stood at 4,004, which was 11.5% lower than 4Q10. Last year’s closings were aided by the tax credits that ended in September 2010.

Inventory was at an 8.4-month supply, down just 0.1% compared to 4Q10. Finished vacant inventory decreased to 1,341 units, down 3.3% compared to 4Q10, and representing a 4 month supply. This is up from 3.7 months during 4Q10. “This negative trend and the high months of supply requires a continued focused approach to pricing existing finished vacant units as well as new product,” said Polito.

“Our forecast for 2012 is for a modest increase in housing start activity. The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market,” said Polito.

For information contact:
Tony Polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email: tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Tampa, FL– November 1, 2011) Tampa job creation continued during the quarter and 3Q2011 starts were the best single quarter since 3Q2008, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Tampa MSA gained 24,500 jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, placing Tampa Bay in the top 10 of 362 MSAs in the US. However, the unemployment rate stood at 10.8% NSA, well above the national average of 9.1%. “The worst job losses are now behind us and the market is showing signs of job creation versus the July 2010 low point, although unemployment higher than the national average will likely remain the next few years,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Region.

During 3Q11, 1,158 single family units were started, an increase of 4% compared to 3Q10. This was the highest level since 1,201 quarterly starts in 3Q2008. However, the annual starts pace decreased to 3,830, 5.3% lower than last year’s rate. This mixed pattern is typical when moving away from a cyclical bottom. Closings totaled 1,255 units, 12.5% lower than 3Q10. Annual closings stood at 3,967 or 19.3% lower than 3Q10. Last year’s closings were aided by the tax credits that ultimately ended in September 2010.

Inventory was at an 8.5-month supply, down 4.7% compared to 3Q10. Finished vacant inventory decreased to 1,363 units, down 5.5% compared to 3Q10, a 3.9 month supply. This is down from 4.1 months during 2Q11 but up from 3.3 months during 3Q10. The number has been trending downward since 1Q07. “The FV trend is mixed and the months of supply still remain high. This dynamic requires a continued focused approach to pricing existing finished vacant units as well as new product,” said Polito.

“We expect that 2011 will be essentially flat in terms of new housing starts compared to 2010. We still expect modest percentage and unit gains in 2012. The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

It seems odd to talk about replacing developed lots in the midst of the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression. But we are at a point in the market where builders and developers are beginning to do exactly that. As of the end of the third quarter of 2011, Tampa had 2,840 annual starts in 593 “active” detached single-family subdivisions spread between Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando Counties. The activity over the last twelve months was divided as follows:

• 39 subdivisions starting more than 24 homes
• 42 subdivisions starting between 13 and 23 new homes
• 43 subdivisions starting between 7 and 12 new homes
• 96 subdivisions starting between 1 and 6 new homes
• 373 subdivisions without a new home start over the last twelve months

The most active tier produced 1,422 new starts or 50.1% of all single family detached starts in the Tampa MSA. That is 6.6% of the subdivisions providing half of Tampa new housing production. This tier had 2,295 vacant developed lots remaining  at the end of 3Q 2011. Representing just a 19.4 month supply, the market equilibrium for Tampa is between an 18 to 24 months supply of developed lots. The good news is there are another 1,215 future lots within these subdivisions in the form of future phases. Builders in these top tier projects will be reliant upon these future phases within the next year and a half, or they will be looking for new subdivisions or repositioned existing lots upon which to build. This timeline grows shorter as the housing market continues to rebound, as these measures of supply are a by-product of near record low level of housing starts. Every 10% increase in starts reduces the SF months of supply of lots by nearly 2 months within these most active subdivisions.

The second most active tier produced 742 new starts or 26.1% of all SF detached starts over the last twelve months. Combined with tier 1, you have 13.7% of the subdivisions producing 76.2% of all new starts. This second tier does have 1,805 developed lots but carries no real future lots. So as tier one nears build-out on the existing lots you may see this tier gain market share just from the mere fact of available lots.

The wildcard is the zombie subdivisions that have not started a new home over the last twelve months and are continuing to reduce there standing inventory of homes built during the boom. A successful repositioning and marketing campaign could prove a valuable source of developed lots to the building industry. If these zombies remain in a coma, builders may be hard pressed to find a quality supply of lots by the end of 2013.

It seems appropriate that as we get ready to celebrate All Hallows Eve and the associated ghosts, goblins and witches, we take a look at the Zombie. We are not talking about the walking undead that has become a favorite of Hollywood over the last few years, but the boom time subdivisions that dot the Tampa Bay landscape. There were 597 active subdivisions offering detached homes in the Tampa MSA (Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties) as of June 2011. Active is defined as a subdivision with developed lots available to build upon or standing inventory available to buy. I stress this definition of “active” as there were 338 active subdivisions that did not start a single home over the last twelve months. If new home starts were the pulse of any subdivision, these subdivisions would certainly qualify for life support.

Some of these subdivisions do have units that were started more than 12 months ago and remain “under construction”. They also have standing finished vacant inventory. So, there is activity. This group of 338 subdivisions had 133 closings (move-ins as measured by our on-site survey) over the last twelve months. How? They are moving the standing inventory. In the summer of 2007, this group actually accounted for over 12% of the Tampa new home building active versus the 0% market share they now hold. There were 664 finished but still vacant homes in these subdivisions in June 2007. That number has been steadily declining and stood at just 122 units as of June 2011. Cleaning up the standing inventory is a major factor in moving forward in a housing recovery. At the current pace, the standing inventory in these subdivisions should be cleaned out by mid 2013.

Outside of the Zombies, the Tampa finished vacant new home inventory of detached homes continues to improve. New Single family subdivisions that did report new home starts over the last twelve months now have 665 finished vacant units or 2.9 months. This is down from 994 finished vacant units or 3.6 months as of June 2007. The ideal level of finished vacant inventory in Tampa is 1.5 – 2.0 months. When the market returns to this level, we expect an increase in building activity. While the Zombies may have to wait awhile for new homes to be started in their subdivisions, they can certainly help the market by continuing to eliminate the standing inventory.

(Tampa, FL– August 1, 2011) Tampa sees job gains but slow starts and closings during 2Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Tampa MSA gained 3,500 jobs based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics as an annual rate for 2Q11, placing in the top 10% of 362 MSAs in the US. Unemployment stood at 11.1% NSA as of June, well above the national average of 9.2%. “The worst job losses are now behind us and the market is showing signs of job creation versus July 2010, although an unemployment rate higher than the national average will likely remain the next few years,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Region.

During 2Q11, 1,038 single family units were started, a decrease of 9.6% compared to 2Q10. Annual starts decreased to 3,850, 2.5% lower than last year’s rate. Closings totaled 817 units, 29.3% lower than 2Q10. Annual closings stood at 4,174, 7.9% lower than 2Q10.

Inventory decreased to an 8.4-month supply, down 9.9% compared to 2Q10. Finished vacant inventory decreased to 1,420 units, down 12.8% compared to 2Q10, a 4.1 month supply. This is up from 3.6 months during 1Q11 but down from 4.3 months during 2Q10. The number has been trending downward since 1Q07. “The FV trend is mixed and the months of supply still remain high. This dynamic requires a continued focused approach to pricing existing finished vacant units as well as new product,” said Polito.

“We expect modest gains in 2011 in terms of building activity and better percentage and unit gains in 2012. The major factors going forward continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the job market,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Tampa, FL– May 1, 2011) Job creation and shrinking inventory are both positive signs for the Tampa housing market during 1Q11, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The March 2011 unemployment rate stood at 11%, well above the national average of 8.8%. As of March 2011, the Tampa MSA had an employed workforce of 1,122,500, up from the lowest point in July 2010 of 1,105,700. “The worst job losses are now behind us and the market is showing signs of job creation versus July 2010,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Region.

In Tampa, 840 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2011. This represents a decrease of 12.1% compared to last year’s rate of 956 units. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 956 units, which is 2.4% lower than the 980 closings in the same quarter last year. Because closings outpaced starts, total single family inventory dropped to 2,720 units, a 7.2 month supply. Inventory is down 16.4 % compared to the same quarter last year.

Finished Vacant unit supply continues its decline, and at the end of 1Q11 stands at 3.6 months compared to 4.4 months at the end of 1Q10. This has been on the decline since 1Q07. “While the overall trend in declining finished vacant units is good, the months of supply remain high and requires a focused approach to pricing and land acquisition,” said Polito.

“The foundation is in place to see improvements in the housing sector as we move through 2011 and into 2012. We expect modest gains in 2011 in terms of building activity and better percentage and units gains in 2012,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Tampa, FL– February 1, 2011) Improved new housing starts, increased resale home sales, and declining finished vacant inventory all manifested during 2010, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“Although starts increased in 2010, closings fell,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Region. “Closings still outpaced starts for the year, though, so inventory dropped.” Starts increased 18.4% to 4,064 starts in 2010, and closing fell 4.6% to 4,472 closings. 928 units closed during 4Q10, which is 31.3% less than the 1,350 closings during 4Q09, the initial quarter for tax credits.

Total inventory at the end of 4Q10 stood at 3,007 units, an 8.1 months supply. This is down by 11.7% from the end of 2009. Finished vacant inventory dropped by 17.3% from 1,849 units last year to 1,529 this year. However, finished vacant inventory increased in the fourth quarter of 2010, up 46 units from 3Q10 levels. This was the largest quarterly increase since 1Q07. “With poor closings numbers, the months of supply of finished vacant homes increased from 3.6 to 4.1 months,” said Polito. “This is a stark reminder that a focused approach to sales and marketing, as well as pricing, remains absolute.”

The job market saw improvements, as 1,500 new jobs were added on a year to year basis, after 40 consecutive months of job losses. “The worst job losses are now behind us,” said Polito. “The foundation is in place to see improvements in the housing sector in 2011 and into 2012.”

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

(Tampa, FL– November 1, 2010) The Tampa housing market showed some positive signs in inventory during 3Q10, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

“While there continues to be some tough market factors for the new home industry, we are seeing some improvements,” said Tony Polito, director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Region. Single Family new finished vacant inventory dropped by 10.7% during the third quarter. Moreover, finished vacant inventory decreased by 21.0% from 2,016 units last year to 1,592 this year. This is the lowest it has been since 1Q 2005. The peak in finished vacant inventory was 1Q07 with 4,777 units.

Quarterly starts were at 1,003 single family units, only .1% less than 3Q09, though the annual start rate increased by 10.4% to 3,904 annual starts. Closings totaled 1,216 units, an 18.3% increase from 3Q09. Because closings outpaced starts for the quarter, single family inventory dropped 18.7% from 3Q09 rates to 3,218 units, an 8.3 month supply.

The Florida Association of Realtors reported 22,548 MLS sales through the first nine months of 2010. This is a 5.1% increase in sales versus the same period of 2009. One negative trend is the single family median price. The bottom in the MLS median SF price in Tampa was January 2009 at $122,400. The September 2010 MLS SF median price was $127,400, down 7% from September 2009. “While the median is up from January 2009 low, it is likely that median resale prices will continue to show negative trend, albeit in single digits for much of 2010,” said Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151 x811
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing industry and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing its own primary housing data for approximately 70% of the United States housing market, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise regarding real estate development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the marketability of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices located in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com.

In the Charles Dickens’ classic, A Tale of Two Cities “it was the best of times; it was the worst of times.”  While “the best of times” are clearly five years past in the Tampa new home market, today, there is a growing “tale of two cities”.  In Tampa, we have 51 unique subdivisions whose activity levels exceeded 24 annual housing starts for the 12 months ending June 30, 2010.  Those subdivisions accounted for 2,149 new starts or about 55% of the total annual starts pace of 3,904 units and they represented 1,958 closings or about 43.9% of the 4,461 annual closings.  You have 6% of the active subdivisions creating 55% of the new construction activity.  Why is that? One major reason is price.  The average deed in those 51 subdivisions was $178.6k versus $227.4k in subdivisions starting 1 to 2 units per month.

The stronger subdivisions (per housing starts) carry the second highest finished and vacant inventory count at 424 units (completed and never occupied new homes), about 24% of the Tampa Bay total.  But this number must be put into perspective by looking at the months of supply.  In an interesting twist, the months of supply is the lowest of any of the activity bands in Tampa at just 2.6 months.  The level of finished vacant inventory can be a stronger indicator of general market health than the overall housing start numbers.  When you examine the 500 active (in name only) subdivisions in Tampa that did not start a single home over the last twelve months, you find 917 finished vacant housing units or about 51% of the Tampa total.  While these subdivisions did not start any new homes, they did close 596 units during the last year.  This closing pace leads to an 18.5 month supply of finished vacant housing units in those subdivisions. 

Is there more?  Well…yes.  Tampa Bay still is subject to a large supply of vacant developed lots, currently a 103.7 month-supply.  But when you look at those truly active subdivisions, the months of supply of vacant developed lots reveals our “tale of two cities” conundrum.  Those subdivisions with more than 24 annual starts currently have just a 20.4 month supply of developed lots, a healthy level that could be defined as equilibrium .  Moreover, there are only 1,228 future lots within these most active subdivisions.  In a little over two years, 55% of our current housing activity will have to find new lots on which to build.  Will those troubled subdivisions with already developed lots, but significant finished vacant inventory be repositioned to accept this demand or will new sites with no negative history be sought?  Truly…a tale of two cities.