Tampa Housing 2Q14 Survey: Changing Price Distribution is Key

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 08-21-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

August 2014: Metrostudy today released the results of its 2Q14 survey of the Tampa Bay housing market, which showed that the “pause” that began last Fall is showing some signs of abating as 2Q14 starts were up 31.8% over 1Q14. During 2Q, 1,529 single-family units were started, which was down 17.4% from the 2Q13 level of 1,851 starts (the best post-recession quarter). The annual starts rate, compared to last year, decreased by 6.1%, to 5,850 annual starts.

Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,396 units, up 5.1% from 2Q13 levels. The annual closings rate was 6,458 units, 23.8% above the rate for the twelve months ending 2Q13.  A review of deed records indicates that the “pause” had more effect on volume than pricing. The price increases pushed thru in early 2013 have held and now builders must face the question of volume versus price.

“As in the rest of the state, the Tampa Bay region is showing a precipitous drop in construction of units for first time and lower income homebuyers, as the number of annual starts under $150k has declined 57% since 2Q13,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Market.  “Builders are instead concentrating on higher-priced inventory, which is booming.  Annual starts of units priced over $450k more than doubled since 2Q13, and we expect to see this trend continue.”

Annual Starts by Price Range

tony 2q

For the twelve months ending June 2014, annual new home starts in price ranges under $200k totaled 1,436 units, down 37.5% from the 2Q13 annual activity in that range. New home starts in prices over $200k were up 12.3% for 2Q14 versus 2Q13. The marginal 379 unit decrease in the annual start pace was split: 861 less units under $200k and 482 more units above $200k (127.2% of the marginal growth).

Total single-family inventory, composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,494 units on the ground at the end of the 2Q14; a 6.5-month supply. Inventories fell by 14.8% compared to 2Q13. Compared to last year, the number of units under construction fell by 348 homes to 1,862 homes. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 17.8% from last year to 1,335. The number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and FV inventory decrease by 183 units versus 1Q14. The FV MOS of single family units fell from 2.1 as of 1Q14 to 1.8 months as of 2Q14.

Hillsborough County remained the most active county within the Tampa market during the second quarter. However, market share declined from 65.1% for 1Q14 to 63.3% for 2Q14, in spite of quarterly starts rising from 738 in 1Q14 to 929 in 2Q14. Market share in Pasco fell from 24.8% for 1Q14 to 24.4% for 2Q14 despite quarterly starts rising from 284 in 1Q14 to 379 for 2Q14. The VDL supply throughout all of Hillsborough County stood at 25.3 months. The VDL supply in Pasco stood at 52.2 months as of June 30, 2014. These two major counties accounted for 87.7% of all annual start activity in Tampa Bay.

The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts

FishHawk Ranch……………………………………….209

Valencia Lakes………………………………………….159

Hawks Point…………………………………………….146

Lake Brandon…………………………………………..146

River Bend………………………………………………142

Citrus Hills……………………………………………….126

Seven Oaks……………………………………………..126

Magnolia Park…………………………………………..124

The Estuary……………………………………………..123

Trinity……………………………………………………..121

This quarter, 1,949 lots were delivered to the Tampa market. This same quarter a year ago, we delivered 2,447 lots. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 28,785 lots, an increase of 0.4% compared to 28,801 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 59.3 month supply, an increase of 3.8 months compared to last year.

“The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market,” said Polito. “With an upward trend in wage growth during the second quarter; job creation will be the most important in determining future housing demand in the Tampa market.”

For information contact: tony polito @ 813.888.5151
Email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

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In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts

 

 

 

 

Harry Potter Casts a Spell on Florida’s Economy

Posted in Central Florida Market, In The News, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-20-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

anthony cJune 5 (Bloomberg) –Florida’s employment picture has improved faster than any other state since the financial crisis — and some Floridians says that’s because Harry Potter has been working his wizardry in their state.

Bloomberg’s Yang Yang reports from Orlando.

See full interview here

Metrostudy Regional Director – Anthony Crocco

Metrostudy Market Analysis: Tampa Market

Posted in National Housing Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-19-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

tonyThinking of retiring to Florida? According to Metrostudy’s Tony Polito, fewer baby boomers are Florida-bound, which will impact coastal markets in the coming years. In his market overview, Polito explains that although Sarasota has stayed strong with significant migration from the New York Metro Area, Tampa remains one of the toughest markets with numbers down and prices up.

Metrostudy Markets Analyses at the 2014 Housing Leadership Summit

Posted in Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Las Vegas Market, National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 06-02-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

The housing recovery hasn’t been a one-size-fits-all proposition. In Northern California, affordability remains a constant hurdle, while Tampa, Fla., and Las Vegas are clawing their way back after dramatic losses during the recession. In Dallas and South Florida, the markets are so strong that builders are being forced to come up with creative ways to manufacture lots. Raleigh, N.C., is also experiencing shirking supply but has recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession. And in Houston, buoyed by the strong energy sector, home prices have risen 17%. These were just some of the observations that came out from Metrostudy’s regional directors at Hanley Wood’s Housing Leadership Summit in Dana Point, Calif., in May. Check out the videos from the discussion below.

Watch Full Videos Here

Tampa 1Q14 Survey Shows Housing Market Growing; The “Pause” Continues into 2014: Builders Face Question of Volume Versus Price

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 05-09-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

May 9, 2014: Metrostudy’s survey of the Tampa housing market shows that new home activity slowed in 1Q14, reflecting mixed economic news and a continuation of 2013 trends. In Tampa, 1,175 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2014, a decrease of 21.8% compared to last year’s rate of 1,502 units. Despite this drop in 1Q14 activity, the annual starts rate, compared to last year, increased by 10.4%, to 6,204 annual starts.

“The “pause” that began last Fall had a significant impact on homebuilding activity in the first quarter,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Market. “A review of deed records thru February indicates that the “pause” had more effect on volume than pricing. The price increases pushed thru in early 2013 have held and now builders must face the question of volume versus price.”

For the twelve months ending March 2014, annual new home starts in price ranges under $200k totaled 1,613 units. This was down 29.7% from the 1Q 2013 annual activity in prices less than $200k. New home starts in prices over $200k were up 38.1% for 2014 versus 2013. The marginal 583 unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 683 less units under $200k and 1,266 more units above $200k, 217.2% of the marginal growth.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,384 units on the ground at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2014; an 6.3-month supply. Inventories fell by 5.4% compared to 1st Quarter of 2013.

Compared to last year, the number of units under construction fell by 141 homes to 1,568 homes. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 3.8% from 1,596 units last year to 1,535 this year. However, the number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 65 units versus 4Q13. The FV months of supply held level with 4Q 2013 at 2.1 months.

Hillsborough County remained the most active county within the Tampa market. Hillsborough County increased market share, up from 58.5% for 4Q13 to 63.8% for 1Q14, despite quarterly starts falling from 836 in 4Q13 to 750 in 1Q14. Market share in Pasco fell from 29.5% for 4Q13 to 24.4% for 1Q14 as quarterly starts decreased from 419 4Q13 to 287 for 1Q14. The VDL supply throughout all of Hillsborough County stood at 23.4 months. The VDL supply in Pasco stood at 44.8 months as of March 31, 2014. These two major counties accounted for 89.9% of all annual start activity in Tampa Bay as of 1Q 2014.

“The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market,” said Polito. “With an upward trending unemployment rate from December; job creation, interest rates and wage gains will be important in determining future housing demand in the Tampa market.”

For information contact: tony polito @ 813.888.5151
Email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Shrinking First-Time Buyer Market

Posted in National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 05-08-2014 | Written by Austin Evans

Activity and pricing both experienced significant gains in most of our markets around the country in 2013, leaving many feeling optimistic about 2014 and 2015. Metrostudy is projecting increases in new home starts in our Florida markets through 2017, with home prices trending up as well. This is generally positive news, but may present some affordability issues in the first-time buyer segment.

Read the rest of this entry »

2013 was an Up Year for New Homes in Tampa Bay

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 02-17-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Tampa, FL – February 17, 2014) The Tampa Bay market experience another positive quarter with job gains and increased housing activity. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In Tampa, 1,434 single-family units were started in 4Q13. This represents an increase of 6.9% compared to last year’s rate of 1,342 units. The annual starts rate, compared to last year, increased by 27.2%, to 6,513 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,885 units, which is 44.0% higher than the 1,309 closings during the fourth quarter of last year. The annual closings rate was 6,158 units which was 25.1% above the annual closings rate of 4,921 units for the twelve months ending 4Q12. “Despite the increase in interest rates in May, builders did an outstanding job in delivering and closing units,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Market.  The Construction Sector added 5,700 jobs in 2013, an impressive 10.6% growth rate.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,747 units on the ground at the end of 4Q13 a 7.3-month supply. Inventories grew by 10.5% compared to 4Q12.Compared to last year, the number of units under construction rose by 405 homes to 1,998 homes. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 4.3% from 1,546 units last year to 1,480 this year. The number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and finished vacant inventory decreased by 104 units versus 3Q13. This was mostly condo units as non-condo FV units fell by 16 units. Model home inventory was up 16 units from last year at 269 total models. Builders in this market are closing 22.9 homes per year, per model, up from the 19.5 rate achieved last year. By comparison, the market was closing 26 homes per model in 2002 and 43 homes per model in the summer of 2006.

This quarter, 1,644 lots were delivered to the Tampa market. This same quarter a year ago, we delivered 958 lots. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 28,589 lots, a decrease of 2.3% compared to 29,276 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 52.7 month supply, a decrease of 15.9 months compared to last year. “Hillsborough County is on the edge of a lot shortage as the Months of Supply were at 21.1 months in December,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Market.

“The Tampa Bay market has added 118,800 jobs from this cyclical trough or about 75% of the jobs lost from the peak employment level in late 2006. However, mortgage rates have begun to rise and buyers have lost around 10% of their buying power, when compared to early May. The rise in interest rates coupled with the government shutdown and health care reform did affect Consumer Confidence and 4Q results,” stated Polito.

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

The Tampa Bay housing market had a strong third quarter despite rising interest rates

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 10-31-2013 | Written by Metrostudy News

(Tampa, FL – October 31, 2013) The Tampa Bay market experience another positive quarter with job gains and increased housing activity.  This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

In Tampa, 1,805 single-family units were started in 3Q13. This represents an increase of 19.0% compared to last year’s rate of 1,517 units. The annual starts rate, compared to last year, increased by 35.7%, to 6,454 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,695 units, which is 33.2% higher than the 1,273 closings during the third quarter of last year. The annual closings rate was 5,585 units which was 21.2% above the annual closings rate of 4,608 units for the twelve months ending 3Q12. “The September annual starts pace of 6,454 units was near the top of our 2013 forecast of 5,700 – 6,500 units. It now appears likely that 2013 starts will exceed 6,600 units,” said Tony Polito, regional director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Market.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 4,225 units on the ground at the end of 3Q13; a 9.1-month supply. Inventories grew by 25.9% compared to 3Q12. Compared to last year, the number of units under construction rose by 811 homes to 2,385 homes. Finished vacant inventory increased by 3.4% from 1,530 units last year to 1,582 this year. The number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and finished vacant inventory decreased by 35 units versus 2Q13. This was mostly condo units as non-condo FV units fell by 2 units. Model home inventory was up 6 units from last year at 258 total models. Builders in this market are closing 21.6 homes per year, per model, up from the 18.3 rate achieved last year. By comparison, the market was closing 26 homes per model in 2002 and 43 homes per model in the summer of 2006.

The Tampa Bay market has added 99,100 jobs from this cyclical trough or about 63% of the jobs lost from the peak employment level in late 2006. Just over the last twelve months, 41,700 new jobs were added.  However, mortgage rates have begun to rise and buyers have lost around 10% of their buying power, when compared to early May. The rise in interest rates had little effect upon 3Q results.  Tampa had wage growth that was better than the national average during 3Q. “We expect that rising rates will likely have more effect upon future price increases and less upon volume,” said Polito.

“The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market. With an unemployment rate now at 7%, job creation and wage gains will be more important than interest rates in determining future housing demand in the Tampa market,” stated Polito.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.