Tampa Housing 2Q15: Strong Growth Continues in 2015 – New Home Starts Back at 2007 Levels

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 08-10-2015 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • Metrostudy’s survey shows 2Q15 New Home Starts are up 33.5% over 2Q14
  • The quarterly starts pace of 1,985 units was the single best quarter for starts since 1Q07.
  • Despite these positives, Tampa is still building about two thirds of the average annual 20-year volume. While continued growth is expected, potential road bumps include rising interest rates, rising costs, affordability issues, public sentiment towards growth and the overall economy.

AUGUST 2015 – Metrostudy’s 2Q15 survey of the Tampa housing market shows that 1,985 single-family units were started in the quarter, up 33.5% over 2Q14 levels. The annual starts rate, compared to last year, increased by 14.2%, to 6,594 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,708 units, which was 23.0% higher than 2Q14. The annual closings rate was 5,992 units, 6.0% below the annual closings rate of 6,375 units for the twelve months ending 2Q14.

“For the twelve months ending June 2015, annual new home starts in price ranges under $200k totaled 1,618 units, up 15.4% from the 2Q14,” said Tony Polito, Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa market. “New home starts in prices over $200k grew by 13.8% from 4,374 units as of June 2014 to 4,976 units as of June 2015. The marginal 818 unit increase in the annual start pace was split: 216 more units under $200k and 602 more units above $200k.”

Screenshot 2015-08-10 12.26.01

Hillsborough County remained the most active county within the Tampa market. However, Hillsborough County lost market share, down from 63.5% for 2Q14 to 58.5% for 2Q15. Market share in Pasco grew from 24.3% for 2Q14 to 29.3% for 2Q15 as quarterly starts increased from 395 in 1Q15 to 727 for 2Q15. The VDL supply throughout all of Hillsborough County stood at 29.2 months as 2Q 2015, up 4.0 months from 2Q 2014. The VDL supply in Pasco stood at 40.8 months as of June 30, 2015. One year ago Pasco had a 52.1-month supply of vacant developed lots. These two major counties accounted for 87.8% of all annual start activity in Tampa Bay as of 2Q 2015.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 4,145 units on the ground at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2015; an 8.3-month supply. Inventories grew by 17.4% compared to 2nd Quarter of 2014. Compared to last year, the number of units under construction rose by 407 homes to 2,226 homes. Finished vacant inventory increased by 7.1% from 1,424 units last year to 1,525 this year. Compared to a year ago, the FV months of supply of non-condo product grew from 1.7 to 2.1 months. However, the number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and FV inventory fell by 102 units versus 1Q15 and MOS fell from 2.4 to 2.1 months.

For the first five months of 2015, MLS SF sales were up 19.6% from the same period of 2014 with 18,128 sales. The median home price in May 2015 was up by 12.5% to $175,500. However the resale market is three tiered: traditional, short sales and foreclosure sales. The median sale price for traditional resales was $200,000 in May 2015. Short Sales and Bank Sales continue to skew the overall resale data downward.

The other significant trends involve new housing inventory. Finished Vacant units grew by 108 non-condo units versus 2Q 2014 but fell 102 units versus 1Q 2015. Tampa saw a 246 unit increase in the last two quarters of 2014 as builders started specs to try to bolster 2014 results. The market has absorbed 138 of those units in the first half of 2015. The months of supply of FV units stood at 2.1 months as of June 30, 2015 down from 2.4 months as of March 31, 2015. The supply of FV units still needs to come down nearer to 1.5 months. The backlog of under construction units is about where it was in mid-2013 and should represent strong closing numbers for the back-half of 2015, barring cancellations.

“Solid job and wage growth, falling unemployment rate, near record level employment and low interest rates all fueled an impressive quarter for housing activity in Tampa,” said Polito. “In fact, the quarterly starts pace of 1,985 units was the single best quarter for starts since 1Q 2007. The quarterly closing rate of 1,708 units was the second best quarter for move-ins since 2Q08 (the best was 4Q 2013 when many Spring 2013 sales were occupied). Despite these positives, Tampa is still building about two thirds of the average annual 20-year volume. There will continue to be growth in starts and closings in Tampa over the next few years. This does not mean 2003–2006 levels, but demand should continue to grow. Potential road bumps include rising interest rates, rising costs, affordability issues, public sentiment towards growth and the overall economy.”

================================================

The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts.

Community (Area)                     Ann Starts

Magnolia Park ……………………………………….. 197

Waterset ……………………………………………….. 193

Long Lake Ranch …………………………………… 187

Valencia Lakes ………………………………………. 183

Wiregrass ……………………………………………… 171

Sun City Center …………………………………….. 163

Concord Station …………………………………….. 151

Hawks Point …………………………………………. 151

FishHawk Ranch ……………………………………. 146

South Fork …………………………………………….. 145

 

For information contact:
Tony Polito
813.888.5151
tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; high-profile executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

 

TAMPA 1Q15 HOUSING: Job Growth is Back – and Housing Demand is Growing With It

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 05-14-2015 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • 1Q15 New Home Starts were up 24.5% over 1Q14 levels
  • The Tampa region is now at 99% Peak Employment – and we are starting to see the effects of that on the Housing Market
  • Wildcards in Demand include Pricing and Availability of Entry Level Product 

May 2015 – Metrostudy’s 1Q15 survey of the Tampa housing market shows that 1,422 single-family units were started in the quarter, up 24.5% over 1Q14 levels. The annual starts rate, compared to last year, decreased by 12 starts or 0.2%, to 6,122 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,364 units, down 7.5% from 1Q14. The annual closings rate was 5,695 units, 10.9% below the annual closings rate of 6,394 units for the twelve months ending 1Q14.

“A quarter ago, we were questioning lack of job growth and its affect upon housing demand,” said Tony Polito, Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Market. “With one stroke of the government pen in March, Tampa Bay job growth was restated to add 18,000 additional jobs. Moreover, our unemployment rate has dropped by 1.1 percent over the last twelve months. Couple this with higher household formations, lower gas prices and wage growth, demand for housing is improving. Coming out of the Great Recession we stated that Tampa will not return to average housing activity until the workforce size fully recovers to prerecession levels. As of March, Tampa is at 99% of the peak employment level. If job creation continues at the current pace, Tampa will set a new peak employment level sometime in 2015. The wildcards in demand moving forward will be pricing, availability of entry level product and potential interest rate increases.”

The chart below shows annual starts by price range since 1Q12:

Tampa-Fig6

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,772 units on the ground at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2015; an 7.9-month supply. Inventories grew by 13.2% compared to 1st Quarter of 2014.

Compared to last year, the number of units under construction rose by 361 homes to 1,898 homes. Finished vacant inventory (non-condo) increased by 2.8% from 1,101 units last year to 1,132 this year. However, the number of move-ins exceeded completions during 1Q and FV inventory decreased by 39 units versus 4Q14. The FV months of supply held steady at 2.4 months.

This quarter, 2,295 lots were delivered to the Tampa market, up 79% from 1Q14. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 33,133 lots, an increase of 16.6% from last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 64.9 month supply, an increase of 9.3 months compared to last year.

 Hillsborough County remained the most active county within the Tampa market. However, it lost market share, down to 61.6% as of March 31, 2015 as quarterly starts went from 891 in 4Q14 to 893 for 1Q15. Market share in Pasco County for 1Q 15 improved 25.9% as quarterly starts increased from 320 in 4Q14 to 389 for 1Q15. The VDL supply for Hillsborough County stood at 31.1 months, and the VDL supply in Pasco stood at 49.8 months as of March 31, 2015. These two major counties accounted for 87.5% of all annual start activity in Tampa Bay as of 1Q 2015. For the twelve months ending March 2015, annual new home starts in price ranges under $200k totaled 1,608 units. This was up 1.2% from the 1Q 2014 annual activity in prices less than $200k. New home starts in prices over $200k totaled 4,514 units, which were down 0.7% for 1Q2015 versus 1Q2014.

A review of deed records thru February indicates prices are increasing from 4Q2014 as year-end purchase incentives have been reduced. Surprisingly, new SF detached homes closed in Pasco in January and February averaged $317.8K for 2,830 SF versus $290.7k for 2,723 SF in Hillsborough.

For the first three months of 2015, MLS SF sales were up 22.5% from the same period of 2014 with 9,866 sales. The median home price in March 2015 was $166,900, up 11.3% from March 2014. The other significant trends involve new housing inventory. Finished Vacant units fell by 39 units during 1Q 2015 and at 2.4 months, the supply of FV units still needs to come down nearer to 1.5 months. The backlog of under construction units grew from 1,798 units as of December 2014 to 1,898 units as of March 2015. The UC months of supply has grown from 3.7 months for 4Q 2014 to 4.0 months as of 1Q 2015, as 270 less units were completed.

*******************

The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts.

Community (Area)                             Ann Starts

Magnolia Park ………………………………………… 205

Valencia Lakes ……………………………………….. 180

Hawks Point ……………………………………………. 173

Sun City Center ………………………………………. 157

FishHawk Ranch ……………………………………. 155

Waterset ………………………………………………….. 150

Ayersworth Glen ……………………………………. 143

K-Bar Ranch ……………………………………………. 136

Lake Brandon …………………………………………. 136

Cypress Creek ………………………………………… 128

For information contact:
Tony Polito
813.888.5151
tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; high-profile executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Tampa Ends 2014 Down; Job Creation Will Be Key to 2015

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 02-19-2015 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • 4Q14 New Home Starts are down 4.5% from 4Q13; the Annual Starts rate is down 10.3%
  • We continue to see a squeeze in starts in the under $200k price range as starts in this range are down 19.2% from 2013
  • Maintaining job creation is imperative to creating housing demand in 2015; 2014 ended up as a down year as the market could not keep pace with the hot selling period of Spring 2013

February 2015: Metrostudy’s 4Q14 survey of the Tampa housing market shows that 1,337 single-family units were started in the fourth quarter, down 4.5% from 4Q13’s 1,400 units. The annual starts rate, compared to last year, decreased by 10.3%, to 5,823 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,454 units, 23.5% lower than the 1,900 closings during the 3rd Quarter of last year. The annual closings rate was 5,797 units, 6.8% below the annual closings rate of 6,221 units for the twelve months ending 4Q13.

“For the twelve months ending December 2014, annual new home starts in price ranges under $200k totaled 1,477 units, down 19.2% from 4Q13 annual activity in prices less than $200k,” said Tony Polito, Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa region. “New home starts in prices over $200k were down 7.0% for 2014 versus 2013. The marginal 675 unit decrease in the annual start pace was split: 350 fewer units under $200k and 325 fewer units above $200k.”

Annual Starts by Price Range

tpa 4Q

This quarter, 1,708 lots were delivered to the Tampa market. This same quarter a year ago, we delivered 1,578 lots. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 30,058 lots, an increase of 6.2% compared to 28,302 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 61.9 month supply, an increase of 9.6 months compared to last year.

Total single-family inventory, composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,691 units on the ground at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2014; an 7.6-month supply. Inventories fell by 0.7% compared to 4th Quarter of 2013.

Hillsborough County remained the most active county within the Tampa market. However, Hillsborough County lost market share, down from 67.3% for 4Q13 to 61.8% for 4Q14. Market share in Pasco grew from 24.1% for 4Q13 to 25.2% for 4Q14. The VDL supply throughout all of Hillsborough County stood at 29.1 months, up sharply from 20.5 months at the end of 2013. The VDL supply in Pasco stood at 54.8 months as of December 31, 2014, up from 45.2 months at the end of 2013. These two major counties accounted for 87% of all annual start activity in Tampa Bay as of 4Q 2014.

“Maintaining job creation is imperative to creating housing demand in 2015,” said Polito. “2014 ended up as a down year as the market could not keep pace with the hot selling period that occurred in the Spring of 2013. A review of deed records thru December indicates that the pace of price increases achieved 2013 have begun to decline.  The average new home price in 4Q 2014 in Pasco and Hillsborough Counties was down 2.3% from $274.4K in 3Q to $268k in 4Q.

************************************************************

The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts.

Community (Area) Ann Starts

Magnolia Park………………………………………..213

FishHawk Ranch …………………………………….169

Valencia Lakes……………………………………….168

Hawks Point ………………………………………….161

Lake Brandon ………………………………………..155

Waterset ………………………………………………149

Citrus Hills…………………………………………….128

Cypress Creek ……………………………………….127

Sun City Center ……………………………………..116

K-Bar Ranch ………………………………………….116

For information contact:
Tony Polito
813.888.5151
tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; high-profile executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Prices Hold, Results Mixed

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 11-21-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

  • While 3Q14 New Home Starts are up 10.8% over 3Q14, the annual starts rate is down 7%
  • Product below $200k is squeezed, as starts in that price range are down over 18% YoY
  • We are not seeing enough employment growth in the Tampa region to drive housing demand

Metrostudy’s 3Q14 survey of the Tampa housing market showed that 1,932 single-family units were started in the quarter, up 10.8% from 3Q13. Still, the annual starts rate, compared to last year, decreased by 7.0%, to 5,995 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,499 units, which is 11.4% lower than the 1,692 closings during the 3rd Quarter of last year. The annual closings rate was 6,269 units which was 11.3% above the annual closings rate of 5,630 units for the twelve months ending 3Q13.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,889 units on the ground at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2014; an 7.4-month supply.  Compared to last year, the number of units under construction fell by 226 homes to 2,087 homes. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 8.1% from 1,590 units last year to 1,461 this year.  However, the number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 137 units versus 2Q14. The FV months of supply grew from 1.8 to 2.1 months.

This quarter, 2,462 lots were delivered to the Tampa market. This same quarter a year ago, we delivered 1,142 lots. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 29,489 lots, an increase of 4.6% compared to 28,183 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 59.0 month supply, an increase of 6.5 months compared to last year.

Annual Starts by Price Range

3qrc

“For the twelve months ending September 2014, annual new home starts in price ranges under $200k totaled 1,639 units,” said Tony Polito, Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa region. “This was down 18.4% from the 3Q 2013 annual activity in prices less than $200k. New home starts in prices over $200k were down 1.8% for 2014 versus 2013. The marginal 448 unit decrease in the annual start pace was split: 369 fewer units under $200k and 79 fewer units above $200k.”

Ideally the Tampa Bay area would be adding 2,000 to 3,000 jobs monthly. In reality, Tampa Bay’s employment level grew by just 2,700 jobs from June 2014 to September 2014. This was not enough of a pace to create significant demand for new housing.  This lack of job creation was reflected in the local unemployment rate growing from 6.3% in June to 6.8% in August. The lingering concerns in the employment markets on a national scale have helped to keep interest rates low during the quarter.

“The year over year starts pace is being compared to the strong spring of 2013 and is down 7%,” said Polito. “However, the 3Q increase in starts exceeded the 2Q13 peak of this recovery cycle and may be a sign of builders starting extra spec units in search of year end closings. A review of deed records thru September indicates price increases from 2013 had held, but the rate of pricing growth has slowed substantially. Additionally, we are seeing more incentives being offered. Tampa’s new housing sector remains heavily reliant upon job creation and interest rates to drive demand.

The other significant trends involve new housing inventory. Finished Vacant units grew by 137 units during 3Q 2014 and at 2.1 months, the supply of FV units still needs to come down nearer to 1.5 months. The backlog of under construction units grew from 1,837 units as of June 2014 to 2,087 units as of September 2014. The UC months of supply has grown from 3.4 months for 2Q 2014 to 4.0 months as of 3Q 2014. The Under Construction MOS have been trending up the last two quarters. This was despite an increase in the number of units being completed; 1,682 units completed in 3Q versus 1,216 completions in 2Q.

Market areas based on annual starts are shown below.

Market Area                                Ann Starts (% Chg)

Hillsborough…………………………………….3,583 (-18.7%)

Pasco……………………………………………….1,584 (+3.6%)

Pinellas…………………………………………….513 (+66.0%)

Hernando……………………………………….180 (+48.8%)

The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts.

Community (Area)                      Ann Starts

Magnolia Park………………………………………..185

FishHawk Ranch …………………………………….175

Sun City Center ……………………………………..155

Valencia Lakes……………………………………….151

Waterset ………………………………………………149

K-Bar Ranch ………………………………………….129

Lake Brandon ………………………………………..125

Seven Oaks …………………………………………..121

Concord Station……………………………………..119

Citrus Hills…………………………………………….118

Hillsborough County remained the most active county within the Tampa market. However, Hillsborough County lost market share, down from 68.4% for 3Q13 to 59.8% for 3Q14. Market share in Pasco grew from 23.7% for 3Q13 to 26.4% for 3Q14 as quarterly starts increased from 376 in 2Q14 to 523 for 3Q14. The VDL supply throughout all of Hillsborough County stood at 28.2 months. The VDL supply in Pasco stood at 48.7 months as of September 30, 2014. These two major counties accounted for 86.2% of all annual start activity in Tampa Bay as of 3Q 2014.

For information contact:
Tony Polito
813.888.5151
tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Metrostudy Florida Markets: All Florida markets witnessed year-over-year price growth in 2Q14

Posted in Central Florida Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-11-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

FINAL 2Q Florida Release and Infographic_Page_01

 

Florida’s new-home market has been surprisingly resilient in coming out of the downturn. Despite massive numbers of foreclosure homes for sale all around the state, builders have managed to find increasing numbers of buyers, and starts activity has rebounded nicely. Prices moved up rapidly in 2011, 2012, and 2013, rising at a more moderate pace in 2014.

2q chart

 

 

Florida Market-by-Market

Tampa:

The Tampa market continues its slow recovery from the devastating recession. Home starts fell by 85% from the peak to the bottom. While some broad based indicators remain positive, like job growth and the local unemployment rate, they have not resulted in robust demand for new housing. As of mid-2014, the Tampa annual pace for new housing starts was 5,853 units.

While this was a 69% improvement from the 3,462 homes built in 2009, it represents just 26% of the peak starts (22,409 units for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006). Families that lost their homes by foreclosure, have difficulty in qualifying for a mortgage or can’t afford the rising new home prices have driven a greater portion of housing demand into rental apartments.

Tampa Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,510 $241,924 $102.29
3Q13 1,484 $251,058 $104.96
4Q13 1,642 $264,895 $107.68
1Q14 1,108 $272,419 $106.33
2Q14 1,304 $276,138 $106.82

 

Over the last year, single family detached home prices are up 12.7% for the five county Tampa market. Homes that closed during the second quarter of 2014 had an average price of $288,006 versus $255,491 in 2Q13. Not only are prices rising, but the average home size is growing. The 2Q closing records showed the average detached single-family home was 2,738 SF, up 227 SF over the 2Q13 average of 2,511 SF. During the second quarter of 2014, both home size and price were essentially flat.

We have seen prices also rise substantially over the last year in townhome and villa product. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $210,243 or 11.9% higher than the $187,881 average in
2Q13. Unlike the detached product, the average size of attached product is shrinking.

Tampa is a highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for 60% of all annual housing starts in the second quarter of 2014. The list of top builders includes nine national builders and just one local builder. Lennar Homes dominates the list and built more homes than builders #2, 3 and 4 combined.

 

Tampa,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
LennarHomes    1,100
DR Horton 409
Pulte Group 343
M/IHomes 314
TaylorMorrison 280
HomesbyWestBay 262
Standard Pacific Homes 235
BeazerHomes 213
Ryland Homes 189
K.Hovnanian 185
TOTAL 3,530

Sarasota:

The Sarasota market is less reliant upon job growth to create housing demand as the market has a strong reputation for retiree demand. That did not mean that Sarasota was immune to the recession. New home starts fell by 86% from 9,113 for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006 to 1,284 units built in 2009. Sarasota has recovered quicker than other Florida markets and as of June 30, 2014, the annual start pace was 3,839 homes (up 199% from the cyclical low).

As the recovery has taken hold, new home prices are rising. In fact, single-family detached homes sold for an average of $310,266 during 2Q14. This was a 22.5% increase over the $253,285 average price in 2Q13. A portion of the price increase was directly attributable to larger homes being bought. The average new home was 2,368 SF in 2Q14 versus 2,076 SF in 2Q13. Buyers are looking for a fourth bedroom or home office particularly in Manatee County.

Sarasota Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 707 $247,643 $123.57
3Q13 827 $259,779 $126.41
4Q13 937 $284,759 $131.04
1Q14 677 $248,670 $130.09
2Q14 637 $295,825 $130.49

 

For town-home and villa product, prices have not changed over the last twelve months. The average closing price in 2Q14 was $224,293 or just 0.9% higher than the $222,364 average in
2Q13. The data does show that the average size of attached product grew to 1,765 SF. For the prior four quarters the average product size was between 1,597 and 1,680 SF.

Sarasota is a very highly concentrated new home market as the Top 10 builders accounted for
72% of all annual housing starts in 2Q14. The list includes seven national builders and three local/regional builders. The list is led by Neal Communities with 627 recorded closings, over one and a half time larger than #2 Pulte Group.

 

Sarasota,
August 1,2013- July 31,2014

Builder Closings
Neal Communities 627
Pulte Group 401
LennarHomes 374
DR Horton 355
TaylorMorrison 349
Ryland Homes 211
WCI Communities 175
Medallion Homes 116
Maronda Homes 109
M/IHomes 72
TOTAL 2,789

 

Southwest Florida:

Southwest Florida’s housing market has recovered nicely from the depths of the Great Recession, and closings were up 31% in 2Q14 over 2Q13. In fact, Metrostudy ranked the Cape Coral Ft. Myers MSA third and the Naples – Marco Island MSA sixth in last month’s “Top Ten Outlook and Market Health Ranking.”

SW Florida Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 611 $384,869 $171.12
3Q13 725 $390,281 $177.32
4Q13 891 $429,191 $188.42
1Q14 728 $434,339 $185.36
2Q14 800 $428,685 $173.00

 

During this same period, the average sales price was up 11%, and the size of the home increased by 10%. In particular, Naples showed a significant jump in pricing and home size, with a $75,000 average increase in pricing, to an average of $543,307, and an over 400 square foot increase (19%) in home size, to an average of 2,744.

However, the price per square foot in Southwest Florida only increased 1% from 2Q13. This may be an anomaly for the current quarter, as price per square foot prices had risen from an average of $171/sf in 2Q13 to over $185/sf in 1Q14. Or, it may reflect a developing trend with builders offering larger homes to offset the increase in sales prices. Metrostudy will monitor this metric to see if a trend emerges one way or the other.

 

Cape Coral-Ft Myers, Naples-Imokalee-Marco Island,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder Closings
Lennar 943
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 401
DR Horton 374
Stockdevelopment LLC 355
WCI communities 349
Gl Homes 251
TaylorMorrison 175
Habitat for Humanity 116
Toll Brothers 109
MintoBuilders 72
TOTAL 3,145

 

The Treasure Coast:

As with Southwest Florida, the Treasure Coast has seen a big recovery from the lows of the market back in 2010, and closings are up 36% the second quarter this year over the 2Q13. Home prices are among the most affordable in South Florida. However, prices continue to rise, with the average up 16% to $294,131. The average size of the home increased from 2,285 to 2,443, a 7% jump. Pricing per square foot is the lowest of all three areas, and at only $120/sf, represents a true bargain for South Florida home shoppers. It’s still relatively easy to find a new single family detached home selling for under $200,000 on the Treasure Coast. Nevertheless, the price per square foot increased 8% during this period, so the trend is moving upward.

 

Treasure Coast Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 190 $253,921 $111.12
3Q13 223 $283,141 $115.23
4Q13 259 $294,108 $116.20
1Q14 208 $288,007 $116.22
2Q14 258 $294,131 $120.38

 

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder                   Closings
DR Horton 280
KolterCommunities Florida LLC 199
AdamsHomes 126
AV Homes, Inc. 96
GHO Homes 82
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 60
Maronda Homes 59
MintoBuilders 59
KB Homes 45
HabitatForHumanity 32
TOTAL 1,038

 

Miami- Ft. Lauderdale:
South Florida is the most populous area with approximately 6 million residents. The Miami – Ft. Lauderdale MSA also placed in our Top Ten Ranking at ninth overall.

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,033 $296,665 $154.40
3Q13 1,256 $377,697 $147.25
4Q13 1,331 $417,954 $154.28
1Q14 988 $425,785 $161.90
2Q14 994 $469,107 $171.46

 

Somewhat surprisingly, the closing rate declined by 4% in the current quarter when compared to
2Q13. This is also reflected in the annualized starts rate, which declined in 2Q14 as well. We are seeing the effects of a slight tempering in demand due to the relatively high sales prices and supply constraints caused by lot and labor shortages, which are noticeable in all three of the MSA’s counties.

Those price increases are on par with Naples, with a similar $75,000 jump in the average sales price, to $469,107. The increase in home size was more modest, at only 7% to 2,736. However, the overall size is one of the largest home sizes in all of South Florida; quite similar to Naples. South Florida also saw the largest increase in price per square foot during this period, rising from
$154/sf to $171/sf, or 11%.

In summary, prices continue to rise, although at a more modest pace, particularly in the past couple of quarters. Homes are getting bigger again, and we are likely to set another record for new home size in 2014. While home appreciation is likely to continue, there’s always the concern that higher prices will crimp demand. Supply constraints, especially in South Florida, might mask a muting in demand, but the other two areas could feel the pinch should prices rise beyond what consumers deem as reasonable.

 

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder              Closings
Lennar 1,450
Gl Homes 630
DR Horton 397
CC Devco Homes 316
Standard PacificHomes 304
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 265
Encore Homebuilders 240
MintoBuilders 226
Toll Brothers 219
TerraGroup 143
  TOTAL       5,640  

 

Jacksonville:

The Jacksonville MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $35,000, or 14% in the 2Q14 when compared to the second quarter of 2013. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Jacksonville Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,122 $249,530 $102.12
3Q13 1,143 $259,474 $103.23
4Q13 1,184 $255,260 $104.84
1Q14 1,165 $272,197 $106.74
2Q14 1,297 $284,114 $109.67

 

Even with this pricing growth the market’s quarterly closing rate increased by over 15% in 2Q14 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 600 units in the 4Q11, to 1,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed between 1,300 and 1,400 units per quarter since.

This indicates the market has reached a point where pricing growth has curbed demand. With the strongest market areas being in northern St. Johns County, it is likely the demand for lower priced housing will push demand out of the urban core. We expect to see stronger growth in new housing construction further south in St. Johns county, as well as in Clay and northern and western Duval County over the coming quarters.

 

Jacksonville,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder             Closings
DR Horton 1,046
DreamFindersHomes LLC (Fl) 384
Lennar 373
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 317
Kb Home 292
Richmond AmericanHomes-MDC 281
Mattamy Homes 251
DavidWeekleyHomes 245
Standard PacificHomes 152
Providence Homes(Fl) 146
TOTAL 3,236

 

Orlando:

The Orlando MSA’s new home average closing price has grown by almost $40,000, or 15% in the 2Q14 when compared to the 2Q13. The price per square foot has grown by almost $8, or just over 7% during that same period.

Orlando Closings Average Price $/SF
2Q13 1,855 $259,978 $109.05
3Q13 1,949 $274,837 $110.84
4Q13 2,088 $290,887 $112.50
1Q14 1,699 $290,197 $112.53
2Q14 1,757 $299,460 $116.71

 

Not surprisingly, the market has felt this pricing pressure as the quarterly closing rate declined by
5% in the second quarter of 2014 when compared to 2Q13. New home starts (not shown here) have been flat over the past 6 quarters. Starts grew from under 1,000 units in the 2Q11, to 2,400 units in 2Q13, but have stayed in the mid-2,000 range since.

What this ultimately means is that demand will be reduced in the urban core, and increase in the outlying areas as buyers look to find, and builders work to produce more affordable product. Orlando has a mix of buyers with significant international and active adult markets, yet remains primarily a Leisure and Resort Service and Retail Trade job market, catering to first time, first time move-up and multi-generational home buyers.

 

Orlando,
August 1, 2013 – July 31, 2014

Builder               Closings
Lennar 922
DR Horton 852
Meritage Homes 581
TheRyland Group,Inc. 484
Kb Home 416
M/IHomes 352
BeazerHomes 341
Pulte-DelWebb-Centex 299
TaylorMorrison 299
Standard PacificHomes 287
TOTAL 4,833

 

Florida is not just one market, clearly. Activity levels and pricing power vary from one market to the next, but the entire state is set for growing demand over the next five years. From the Millennials to the Boomers, an even greater influx of residents is coming to the state. Demand from retirees is expected to be a palpable force as 10 million more people reach retirement age in the U.S. over the next 5 years. Generation Y is so far showing a tendency to rent, but that will start to change as more of them start families.

For information contact:
Danielle Fiore
813-443-6504
dfiore@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy
Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services to help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. For more information, visit www.metrostudy.com
About Hanley Wood
Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Boomers Will Drive Tampa New Home Construction

Posted in Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-05-2014 | Written by Tony Polito

tonyThe Tampa housing market continues to recovers from the devastating recession which saw housing starts activity fall by 85% in the five county market between early 2006 and late 2009.  As of mid-2014, the Tampa market annual pace for new housing starts was 5,853 units.  While this was a 69% improvement from the 3,462 homes built in 2009, it represents just 26% of the peak starts (22,409 units for the twelve months ending March 31, 2006).  Families that lost their homes by foreclosure, have difficulty in qualifying for a mortgage or can’t afford the rising new home prices.  This has driven a greater portion of housing demand into rental apartments.

So, where does growth come from over the next five years for new home builders?  While Florida, as a whole has certainly established itself as a desirable choice for retirees, Tampa has typically focused on family buyers.  Demographics will change this.  Claritas estimates for household growth between 2014 and 2019 indicate that “Baby Boomers” and not millennials will drive demand for housing in Tampa Bay.  The year 2019 is significant as 100% of the Baby Boom (defined as those born between 1946 and 1964) will be age 55 and older.

tony blog

The above chart represents annual household growth for just Hillsborough and Pasco counties as they represent 90% of all new single-family homes being built in the Tampa market.

“Head of Households” whose age is between 35 and 44 years old in 2019 will only grow by 598 new households per year, or about 10% of the new construction expected to be built annually through 2019 in these two counties.  The “Baby Boomer” will represent the major growth opportunities between 2014 and 2019.  Hillsborough and Pasco Counties are expected to add 35,300 households into this age cohort by 2019, myself included.  This is greater than 100% of the annual growth as some younger age groups are expected to see household count decline.  Does this mean a rise in “active adult” communities?  Not necessarily, as more of the retirees are coming from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and they are used to more urban living.  Many could be attracted to downtown living.  Many will choose not to live in purely age restricted communities.  But considering that there are just a few new home communities that are age restricted, we do expect to see growth in the number of age restricted offerings in Tampa over the next five years.

We’ve got LOTS to Talk About

Posted in National Housing Market, Northern California Market, Sacramento Market, Salt Lake City Market, Southern California Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 11-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hAs we approach the end of the year, it is always important to start to imagine what next year will look like for housing.  I think about that question every day, debating it, analyzing it, looking at the data, and imagining different scenarios.

Over the past few years the public on builders have been announcing that they have wanted to increase their community counts. To that end, large amounts of land were bought in 2012 and 2013 that are now being seen in the data as new lot “deliveries.”  We are seeing strong increases in new lot development in markets all around The country.  (“Lot deliveries” means the number of lots brought to the stage where they are ready for a builder to begin construction — roads and infrastructure in place).

Lot Deliveries Catching up with Demand

3q BH

Let’s take a look at some national trends as well as some specific local market trends, which can lend a glimpse into the direction of single-family housing starts for 2015.

Nationwide, lot deliveries are still trailing housing starts by a tiny margin, but the gap has finally nearly closed as lot deliveries rise sharply.  In some markets, the lines have crossed (meaning that lot deliveries are now running at a pace higher than starts), and that is a bullish sign for starts in 2015.

In the broad area we call “Southern California,” lot deliveries are running at an annual pace of 17,587 (during the four quarters ending 3Q14), and that is well above the pace of a year ago (11,784), and is also above the annual pace of housing starts (15,817).  These factors both suggest immediate plans to increase home construction volume.

In Salt Lake City, annual lot deliveries are up slightly, to 7,905 in the four quarters ending 3Q14.  This level is also higher than the last 4 quarters worth of starts (7,739).

In Tampa, lot deliveries have totaled 7,301 during the past year, up from an annual pace of 3,926 a year ago.  This level is far higher than annual starts, now running at 5,995.

In Northern California, lot deliveries are running 13,098 annually, up from 8,826 four quarters ago.  The pace of lot deliveries has been outrunning starts, which are at 10,918, but very likely to move higher, based upon these new communities and lots.

These examples might not have been too surprising, but here is one that is (or maybe I should say “encouraging”):  Phoenix.  Lot deliveries are running at 14,914, up versus 8,608 a year earlier.  This recent pace is in excess of the pace of housing starts, which has run 13,460 over the past four quarters.

What to make of this:

* On the demand side, the “case” for an elevated level of production hinges on higher job growth, which should bring with it better consumer sentiment and the release of more pent-up household formations.

* On the supply side, builders have been pushing for higher community count, and that means more lot development.

This surge in lot development will very likely result in an increase in the pace of home building next year.  The trajectory of housing demand is flatter, however, than when the builders bought the raw land that is now being turned into these lots.  In some cases, builders will have to price their homes at a level lower than what they had assumed when they originally underwrote the land purchase, or face a slower absorption pace.

That said, the long-term trajectory is decidedly upward.

 

Tampa Housing 2Q14 Survey: Changing Price Distribution is Key

Posted in Tampa Market | Posted on 08-21-2014 | Written by Metrostudy News

August 2014: Metrostudy today released the results of its 2Q14 survey of the Tampa Bay housing market, which showed that the “pause” that began last Fall is showing some signs of abating as 2Q14 starts were up 31.8% over 1Q14. During 2Q, 1,529 single-family units were started, which was down 17.4% from the 2Q13 level of 1,851 starts (the best post-recession quarter). The annual starts rate, compared to last year, decreased by 6.1%, to 5,850 annual starts.

Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,396 units, up 5.1% from 2Q13 levels. The annual closings rate was 6,458 units, 23.8% above the rate for the twelve months ending 2Q13.  A review of deed records indicates that the “pause” had more effect on volume than pricing. The price increases pushed thru in early 2013 have held and now builders must face the question of volume versus price.

“As in the rest of the state, the Tampa Bay region is showing a precipitous drop in construction of units for first time and lower income homebuyers, as the number of annual starts under $150k has declined 57% since 2Q13,” said Tony Polito, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Tampa Market.  “Builders are instead concentrating on higher-priced inventory, which is booming.  Annual starts of units priced over $450k more than doubled since 2Q13, and we expect to see this trend continue.”

Annual Starts by Price Range

tony 2q

For the twelve months ending June 2014, annual new home starts in price ranges under $200k totaled 1,436 units, down 37.5% from the 2Q13 annual activity in that range. New home starts in prices over $200k were up 12.3% for 2Q14 versus 2Q13. The marginal 379 unit decrease in the annual start pace was split: 861 less units under $200k and 482 more units above $200k (127.2% of the marginal growth).

Total single-family inventory, composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,494 units on the ground at the end of the 2Q14; a 6.5-month supply. Inventories fell by 14.8% compared to 2Q13. Compared to last year, the number of units under construction fell by 348 homes to 1,862 homes. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 17.8% from last year to 1,335. The number of move-ins exceeded completions during the quarter and FV inventory decrease by 183 units versus 1Q14. The FV MOS of single family units fell from 2.1 as of 1Q14 to 1.8 months as of 2Q14.

Hillsborough County remained the most active county within the Tampa market during the second quarter. However, market share declined from 65.1% for 1Q14 to 63.3% for 2Q14, in spite of quarterly starts rising from 738 in 1Q14 to 929 in 2Q14. Market share in Pasco fell from 24.8% for 1Q14 to 24.4% for 2Q14 despite quarterly starts rising from 284 in 1Q14 to 379 for 2Q14. The VDL supply throughout all of Hillsborough County stood at 25.3 months. The VDL supply in Pasco stood at 52.2 months as of June 30, 2014. These two major counties accounted for 87.7% of all annual start activity in Tampa Bay.

The table below ranks the top ten communities in the market by annual starts

FishHawk Ranch……………………………………….209

Valencia Lakes………………………………………….159

Hawks Point…………………………………………….146

Lake Brandon…………………………………………..146

River Bend………………………………………………142

Citrus Hills……………………………………………….126

Seven Oaks……………………………………………..126

Magnolia Park…………………………………………..124

The Estuary……………………………………………..123

Trinity……………………………………………………..121

This quarter, 1,949 lots were delivered to the Tampa market. This same quarter a year ago, we delivered 2,447 lots. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 28,785 lots, an increase of 0.4% compared to 28,801 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 59.3 month supply, an increase of 3.8 months compared to last year.

“The major factors going forward will continue to be consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy and the job market,” said Polito. “With an upward trend in wage growth during the second quarter; job creation will be the most important in determining future housing demand in the Tampa market.”

For information contact: tony polito @ 813.888.5151
Email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; marquee trade shows and executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.

Lots of Catch-Up

Posted in Atlanta Market, Austin Market, Central Florida Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Denver - Colorado Springs Market, Houston Market, Inland Empire Market, Jacksonville Market, Las Vegas Market, Maryland Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, South Florida Market, Southern California Market, St. George - Mesquite Market, Tampa Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

brad hWe have been talking for years about the lot shortages that builders are facing.  Now, it’s time to talk about how many lots are being developed.  Builders and developers are now playing “catch-up,” with builders buying land and lots and developers/investors paving roads and putting in infrastructure to serve the builders’ needs at a frenetic pace.

The pace of lot delivery (completion, ready for the builder) has gone up 140% in the past two years, much faster than the pace of housing production has risen (+84%).  Despite this increased pace, lot development STILL lags the pace of home production nationwide.

bb

 

In some markets, the lot production machine is in full gear, and has caught up with demand.  This is a good sign for builders, and a vital turning point for home production in 2015 and beyond.

The TOP TEN states for lot production in 2Q14 are:

State       2nd Q.   Starts        2nd Q. Lot       Deliveries
Texas 19,714 18,931
Florida 12,416 10,974
California 10,050 10,219
North Carolina 4,866 3,168
Georgia 4,489 1,270
Colorado 3,985 3,276
Arizona 3,519 4,596
Maryland 2,436 2,122
Utah 2,328 2,498
Virginia 2,198 1,850

Note that lot production has caught up with new home production in California, Arizona, and Utah.   Florida development is woefully far behind demand for lots, hence the skyrocketing cost of finished lots there.

Metrostudy defines “future lots” as those that are in the pipeline (some are pre-entitlement), and Florida has the deepest pipeline.   Below are the top 10 states ranked by known future lots.

State Future Inventory
Florida 1,597,055
California 1,378,299
Arizona 1,213,476
Texas 651,413
Colorado 406,613
Georgia 316,956
Illinois 281,054
Nevada 227,121
Maryland 194,829
Virginia 183,613

 

Is Activity in the South…Going South?

Posted in Atlanta Market, Central Florida Market, Charlotte Market, Dallas - Ft. Worth Market, Houston Market, Jacksonville Market, Naples - Ft. Myers Market, National Housing Market, Northern Virginia Market, Raleigh - Durham Market, Rio Grande Valley Market, San Antonio Market, Sarasota - Bradenton Market, Suburban Maryland Market, Tampa Market, The Triad Market | Posted on 08-04-2014 | Written by Brad Hunter

The brad hgovernment release on housing starts for June showed a sharp decline, concentrated in what the Census Bureau defines as “The South.”  Single-family starts were down in June by 9.0% from the previous month, and down 4.3% from twelve months earlier.  Within that number, almost all the decline was in the South, down 20.1% versus the previous month and down 14.5% versus a year ago.

Rumors of the South’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Read Full Article and See Quarterly SFD Starts