(Baltimore, MD – May 16, 2013) The outlook for the new home market is beginning to brighten. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Baltimore MSA saw some improvement to job growth, adding 30,300 jobs over the same time period. The unemployment rates in both the DC area and Baltimore continue to be below the national average of 7.6%, coming in at 5.2% and 7.0%, respectively. Baltimore has edged nearer to the national average in recent months though which is reflective of historical norms. “The Washington DC and Baltimore regions continue to have some of the tighter labor markets in the country,” said Melissa Jonas, regional director of Metrostudy’s Mid-Atlantic Market.

New homebuyer traffic was 8.4% above the level seen in 2012 in the first quarter, while contracts were up by 34%. The activity seen in the first quarter was promising, with the contracts rising by 6.5% versus 1Q12 rates. Year-over-year for the quarter, the cancellation rate fell by 22.5% to an average rate of 13.7%. New housing production continues to rise, with 1Q13 starts up 10.5% over 1Q12. The market is adding 8,328 units annually, continuing a six quarter trend of increased production. Closings in the first quarter are up 19.9% versus the previous year, marking the fifth quarter in a row with an increase in closings. Annual closings are now at 8,187 units.

Overall new housing inventories now sit at 5,914 units, which represent 8.7-months of supply. However, 36% of these new units in inventory are condominiums that are under construction or sitting finished but vacant. Condos currently have 19.6 inventory months available in the region. Removing the condos from the equation, we see that the single family and town home segments only have a 6.6- month supply of new units available, which is low. “Tightening new home inventories, combined with tightening resale inventories, are making the marketplace quite challenging for buyers.  It is a great time to be a seller, as long as you have your next home secured,” said Jonas.

The number of vacant developed lots has fallen to 13,699 VDLs for the entire region. This now represents a 19.7-month of supply of lots in the overall market. However, lot supplies are falling in the core counties, where there is an average 14.4 months of supply. “As such, continued increases in activity over the next several quarters will likely result in a significant shortage of lots in core areas, pushing development outward and into the second tier submarkets, while driving up prices of the existing lots,” said Jonas.

“Looking forward we expect to see continued increases in new housing production as the recoveries in the resale market and the economy progress. In Maryland, this will begin with the Washington DC suburbs, with Baltimore lagging by several quarters or more,” said Jonas.

For information contact:
melissa jonas @ 703.244.5229
email melissaj@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

(Tampa, FL – May 15, 2013) The Tampa Bay market received very positive news during the quarter. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Tampa Bay market gained 35,900 jobs (Annual Rate) as of 1Q13, a rate of 3.1%. For the twelve months ending March 2013, Tampa was eleventh in the nation for job creation and tops in Florida. The Tampa unemployment rate decreased during the quarter to 6.9% NSA. The local unemployment rate fell below the national average of 7.5% SA and slightly below the statewide unemployment rate of 7.0% NSA. “One year ago, the unemployment rate in Tampa was 9.1% NSA. For the first time in several years Tampa was below the state and national unemployment rate,” said Tony Polito, regional director of Metrostudy’s Tampa and Sarasota Markets.

In Tampa, 1,480 single-family units were started in the 1Q13. This represents an increase of 46.2% compared to last year’s rate of 1,012 units. The annual starts rate, compared to last year, increased by 33.9%, to 5,583 annual starts. “The Tampa new housing market exceeded our forecast for 2012 starts and the great start to 2013 has created a revision to our 2013 starts forecast. We now expect new starts by the end of 2013 to be between 11 and 27% higher than 2012 level of 5,115 (5,700 – 6,500 new units),” said Polito. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 1,278 units, which is 29.9% higher than the 984 closings during 1Q12. The annual closings rate was 5,216 units which was 26.4% above the annual rate of 4,128 units closed for the twelve months ending 1Q12.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models equaled 3,607 units on the ground at the end of the 1Q13; an 8.3 MOS. Inventories grew by 11.3% compared to 1Q12. Compared to last year, the number of units under construction rose by 579 homes to 1,726 homes. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 11.9% from 1,819 units last year to 1,602 this year. However, the number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and finished vacant inventory increased by 49 units vs. 4Q12. “The level of finished vacant housing units remains above the equilibrium level at 2.5 months but by September 2013, the level should be near the 2.0 months of supply level,” said Polito.

This quarter, 407 lots were delivered to the Tampa market. This same quarter a year ago, we delivered 797 lots.

Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 28,346 lots, a decrease of 8.7% compared to 31,041 lots last year. Based upon the annual start rate, this level of lot inventory represents a 60.9 MOS, a decrease of 28.5 months compared to last year. “Hillsborough County currently has a 24.4-month supply of developed lots, an equilibrium level.  Because lot development is not keeping up with the new starts demand, lot supply could drop below an equilibrium level by mid 2014,” stated Polito.

“The major factors going for continued improvement in new housing demand will be an improvement in consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the national economy” said Polito.  Of course, the single greatest factor will be local job creation.  The housing market can handle higher interest rates as long as job creation and low unemployment rates exist in the Tampa market.  Job creation is pushing our unemployment rate down, but Tampa is still above what most economists consider the “full employment level” of 5% unemployment.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

(Sarasota, FL – May 15, 2013) While the Sarasota market is still slow in replacing the jobs lost during the recession, northern markets are showing better signs of recovery and that is providing more retiree demand. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The North Port/Bradenton/Sarasota-Bradenton MSA added 2,900 jobs (Annual Rate) based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics report for 1Q13, an annual growth rate of 1.2%. According to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, the March 2103 unemployment rate stood at 6.7% (NSA), below the national average of 7.5% (SA) and the Florida rate of 7.0% (NSA). “One year ago, the jobless rate was 8.8%, reflecting an improvement over the last twelve months in Sarasota/Bradenton,” said Tony Polito, regional director of Metrostudy’s Tampa and Sarasota Markets.

In Sarasota/Bradenton, 895 single-family units were started in 1Q13. This represented an increase of 70.5% compared to last year’s rate of 525 units. The annual start rate compared to last year increased by 42.2%, to 2,829 annual starts. “For 2013, we initially anticipated between 7 and 15% growth in housing starts above 2012 or somewhere between 2,600 and 2,850 new housing starts. With the enormous first quarter, we now believe the range to fall between 2,700 and 3,200 starts or 10 – 30% increase,” said Polito. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 732 units, which was 38.9% higher than the 527 closings in 1Q12. The annual closings rate was 2,479 units per year, which was 25.1% above the annual closings rate of 1,982 units per year in the same quarter last year.

Total single-family inventory, which is composed of units under construction, finished vacant and models, equaled 1,515 units on the ground at the end of 1Q13, a 7.3 MOS. Inventories increased by 30.0% compared to1Q12. Compared to last year, the under construction inventory rose by 373 units to 1,025. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 5.4% from 349 units last year to 330 this year. The number of completions exceeded move-ins during the quarter and FV inventory increased by 66 units. “This represents some much needed available inventory for quick move-in.  Both Manatee and Sarasota Counties were below an equilibrium level of finished vacant units over the last six months – a stark difference when compared to 2006 thru 2011.  The Sarasota/Bradenton new home market functions best with between a 1.5 and 2.0 month supply of FV homes.  Combined these two counties had just a 1.0 month supply of FV home at December 31, 2012.

This quarter 1,256 lots were delivered to the Sarasota- Bradenton market, primarily from the 960 new lots added to the survey in Manatee County with 721 of those lots as new sections of existing subdivisions.  Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 38,645 lots, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 39,375 lots last year. Metrostudy continues to survey 29,503 vacant developed lots in Charlotte County.  At the end of 1Q13, Manatee County had a 36.0 MOS, down from a 55.9 MOS of VDL in 1Q12. Sarasota County had a 52.2 MOS in 1Q13, down from 80.6 MOS in 1Q12. “Manatee County is quickly moving to an equilibrium level of 24 months of vacant developed lots,” said Polito.

“The major factors for continued growth in the new housing sector going forward will be: A) retiree sentiment and northern real estate markets and B) consumer confidence and general continued improvement in the local job market,” said Polito.  Retirees are a significant source of market demand and will continue to be as more “Boomers” reach retirement age over the next decade.

For information contact:
tony polito @ 813.888.5151
email tpolito@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day. www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

(Charlotte, NC – May 9, 2013) Same song, second verse, “All we need are jobs”. Charlotte’s unemployment rate dropped in March to 8.8%, but for the wrong reasons, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Charlotte MSA’s annual job growth numbers continues to disappoint. It has dropped from 28,900 in November to 19,000 in March.  Industry sectors showing the greatest Annual job growth are Leisure and hospitality at 7,100 followed by Professional and Business Services with 4,400. The Charlotte MSA’s current unemployment rate continues to decrease, now  at 8.8%, but it’s still significantly higher than the national rate.  “It’s the mysterious  civilian labor force black hole that continues to swallow people the government says  have quit looking for jobs, thus lowering the employment rate”  said Bill Miley, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s Charlotte Market.

For the first quarter ending March 2013, Charlotte’s quarterly starts for all product types were 1,933, up from last quarter’s 1,674. The 1Q13 starts were 40.5% higher than the 1,376 starts from a year ago in 1Q12. Charlotte’s annualized starts as of first quarter increased to 7,166, a 28.5% increase over annual starts from one year ago. 1Q13 Closings totaled 1,715 units unchanged from fourth quarter which is traditionally one of our strongest closing quarters. “Closings continue to be constrained by low supplies of finished inventory for all product types which decreased from a 2.5 month supply in fourth quarter to a 2.2 month supply after 1Q13,”said Miley.  Charlotte’s first quarter closings increased by 20.0% compared to 1Q12. The 6,850 homes closed in the past four quarters represented a 13.6% increase over 1Q12’s annualized closings.

Total Inventory of new homes in all stages of construction increased to 3,988 in 1Q13 from last quarter’s 3,770 due to strong quarterly starts. Total Inventory rose to a 7.0 month supply from last quarter’s 6.9. Under construction homes increased to a 4.1 month supply, finished vacant fell to 2.2 months and model homes remained at 0.6. The South Carolina market consisting of York and Lancaster counties had the lowest inventory supply at 5.8 months. A 7-8 month supply of inventory is considered to be in equilibrium. When viewed relative to Annual Closings, the 1,278 units of finished vacant inventory for all product types, decreased to a 2.2-month supply from 4Q’s 2.5 MOS. “Charlotte continues to close more homes each quarter than new ones are completed. This lowers the monthly supply and is the catalyst for increased quarterly starts,” said Miley.

The total number of vacant developed Lots in the market at quarter’s end was 31,574. Relative to starts, this represented a 52.9 month supply, rapidly dropping from the 59.1 month supply at the end of 4Q12. We should be approaching a 40 month supply by year’s end and back within equilibrium by the middle of next year. 1,933 vacant lots were absorbed in new starts while 954 new lots were delivered. A 26-30 month supply is considered to be within equilibrium. “As annual starts continue to increase, vacant lots will disappear significantly faster than newly developed lots are delivered. This is not expected to change in the foreseeable future.  “Don’t be misled, said Miley, vacant lots in the best locations are already owned or under contract to the major builders.

“Despite low job growth, new housing activity is heating up in Charlotte. Annual single family permit activity is up 42.7% and actual physical starts are up 28.5%, which means we will continue to see more new housing starts in the months ahead,” said Miley.

For information contact:
Bill Miley @ 704.650.7584
email bmiley@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

(Jacksonville, FL –May 15, 2013) As the National economy strengthens Jacksonville’s housing markets expects to grow in 2013. This is according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The most significant news recently for the Jacksonville market was the employment estimate revision. Before the revisions, Jacksonville’s fall and winter employment market was estimated to be growing at less than 1%. With the revisions, the employed workforce was revised to a growth rate between 2% and 3% from the fall thru Feb. “This is a huge difference, with over 10,000 added jobs originally uncounted, and is especially important since Jacksonville’s housing market relies on jobs to grow (unlike South Florida with retirees and international buyers/investors),” said Anthony Crocco, Regional Director of the Metrostudy’s Orlando and Jacksonville Markets. In the Jacksonville MSA, the number of jobs has increased by 17,900 jobs over the 12 months through February 2013, representing an increase of 3.0%.

In the Jacksonville Market, 1,131 single-family units were started in the first quarter of 2013. This represents an increase of 44.3% compared to last year’s rate of 784 units. Figure 4 notes the annual starts and closings rates while the quarterly rate is shown graphically in Figure 5. The annual starts rate compared to last year increased by 39.2% to 4,056 annual starts. Single-family quarterly closings totaled 975 units which is 25.5% higher than the 777 closings in the same quarter last year. The annual closings rate totaled 3,609 units, which is 26.5% above the rate of 2,853 units per year recorded a year ago. “Both quarterly starts and closing rates for the first quarter of 2013 were well above last year’s first quarter rates and grew nicely from fourth quarter. Since builders have a significant backlog of new sale contracts, we expect continued growth in starts and closings over the next two quarters, at least,” said Crocco.

Total single-family inventory, comprised of units under construction, finished vacant units and models, equaled 2,295 units on the ground at the end of the first quarter, a 7.6 months of supply. Overall, housing inventories increased by 24.2% compared to last year. Compared to last year, under construction inventory rose 53.4%, or 460 units to 1,322. Finished vacant inventory decreased by 1.5% from 784 units last year to 772 this year. Model home inventory is down 1 unit from last year to 201 total models. “Builders in this market are closing 18.0 homes per year per model compared to 14.1 last year,” said Crocco.

This quarter, 782 lots were delivered to the Jacksonville market, a 159.8% increase from 301 lots delivered in the same quarter last year. Vacant developed lot inventory stands at 19,354 lots, a decrease of 10.8% compared to 21,697 lots last year. Based upon the annual starts rate, this lot inventory represents 57.3 months of supply, a decrease of 32.1 months from last year. “Increases in housing inventory are mostly in under construction units, indicating strong end user demand. We anticipate low finished inventory levels in the near term, given the backlog of contracts for most builders,” said Crocco.

“The new home market is growing throughout Jacksonville, with the “A” locations leading the way in absorption and pricing growth. While demand is increasing in weaker locations, pricing power is weak in all but the “A” locations. We expect slower growth in activity but accelerating pricing increases in the best locations, at least thru the summer, as builders work thru sales backlogs and try to maintain profitability with rising costs,” said Crocco.

For information contact:
anthony crocco @ 407.875.9090 x820
email acrocco@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

I want to thank Carrie Brown, Regional Marketing Manage for Beazer Homes for educating me on how home new home buyers find their way into our model homes.

Back in the day, buyers would drive areas of town where they wanted to live and “discover” new home communities through signage.  Today, people still “windshield shop” on the weekends (thus, marking homes as ‘open homes’ in MLS is really important- and it’s free) and then when they get to work on Mondays hits on builder websites see huge spikes.  Yes, we shop for homes on the clock at work.

Some builders have found that an increasing percentage of prospective homebuyers are checking web sites not only from their work computers, but also through smart phones and tablets.  Therefore, some builders have modified their websites to accommodate these platforms. Read the rest of this entry »

(Riverside, CA – May 9, 2013) The mild recovery in the construction market is holding back the Inland Empire from a more energetic recovery as those jobs would produce many multiples throughout the economy, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Inland Empire regional economy has posted positive employment numbers at 23,500 jobs gained year over year thru March 2013. “This solid trend of positive job growth is exciting as the recovery may be anemic but it is sustaining forward momentum over time throughout the Inland Region,” said Steve Johnson, Regional Director of Metrostudy’s South California, Inland Empire and San Diego markets. With an unadjusted unemployment rate at 10.5 % the Inland Empire remains weaker than the total Southern California rate of 9.0% or both the unadjusted state unemployment rate of 9.4 % and national unemployment rate of 7.6 %.

Total closings for the first quarter 2013 were down 7 % from the fourth quarter of 2012 with 1,277 homes closed as builders ran out of inventory and up a whopping 57 % over first quarter 2012. Starts for the first quarter 2013 were 1,495 up 18 % from fourth quarter and up a staggering 128 % compared to the first quarter of 2012 which had a mere 653 starts. The Annual Starts rate was 5,097 units an increase of 19 % compared to the 4,255 homes started in the 12 months ending December 2012 but more importantly the annual starts rate has achieved a level not seen since 5,000 units were started in 1Q2010. Annual Closings totaled 4,703 new homes an increase of 10 % when, compared with 4,237 new homes closed in the year ending December 2012 however returning to the momentum of 1Q2011 when 4,781 homes were closed. Home builders are staffing up and searching the market for sites which they can rapidly bring to market for new subdivisions,” said Johnson.

Single family inventory totaled 3,508 units at the end of the first quarter of 2013 increasing by 6 % over fourth quarter to an improved 9 month supply. Finished vacant inventory in the Inland Empire has decreased 11 % compared to fourth quarter and included 1,046 homes in the first quarter 2013 representing 30 % of the total inventory. Historically in a balanced market finished Vacant represented 18 % to 20 % of total inventory. “Most of the finished inventory in the market is already spoken for as home buyers clamor for product they can move into before school starts,” said Johnson.

VDL inventory decreased less than 3 % since fourth quarter 2012 and there are now 16,000 vacant developed lots in the Inland Empire representing a 37.7 months of supply. “Many home builders are facing the dismal supply of lots in the closer in markets with renewed interest in raw land with existing building approval from local jurisdictions,” said Johnson.

“Some say it was January 3, 2013 when all the home builders in Southern California woke up early in the morning and smelled recovery in the air. They went to work in those first weeks of the new year and began to hear from their sales teams at their new home projects that traffic was up and these consumers were not just kicking tires but were serious about buying a new home,” said Johnson.

For information contact:
steve johnson @ 951.848.3100
email sjohnson@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the largest provider of comprehensive research and insight for the real estate industry. Builders, developers, banks, manufacturers, retailers and many other industries all rely on Metrostudy’s data and analytics to support strategic business decisions at the local, regional and national market level. www.Metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

RMA Gulf Coast Chapter

Luncheon in Houston Texas

Please join the RMA Gulf Coast Chapter as we host David Jarvis (Metrostudy) and Trevor Hightower (CBRE) for a Real Estate Update.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

WHERE: Maggiano’s – 2019 Post Oak Blvd., Houston, TX 77056

AGENDA: 11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.

RSVP: Registration deadline: May 13, 2013

SPEAKERS: David Jarvis – Metrostudy’s Regional Director of Houston

Trevor Hightower – CBRE’s Managing Director

Click HERE for Individual Registration

Click HERE for Table Registration (10% discount / 10 seats)

(Northern California – May 8, 2013) 2013 begins with continued optimism, more so than in quarters past, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The Bay Area region job market is stronger than most throughout the state. All areas of N. CA have experienced annual job. San Francisco added 33,000 jobs followed by San Jose (28,900), Oakland (21,000) Sacramento (14,000), and Sonoma (7,100) Solano (3,300) and Napa (2,900). “In all, growth was realized in 10 of the 12 sectors, with relatively small losses in Other Services and Government sectors,” said Greg Gross,” regional director of Metrostudy’s Northern California, Central California, Reno and Las Vegas markets. The Regional unemployed population dropped below 10% and now stands at 7.6% compared to the State level of 9.4%. Bay area and Sacramento are at 9.2% and 7.1% respectfully.

Northern California annual housing starts are UP 82% from 1Q12, while closings are UP 48%. Quarterly new home closings are UP 66% from 1Q12. The annual start pace is at the highest level since 3Q08 and the annual closing rate is nearly as high as 4Q10. Closings have been outpacing starts for more than four years now. As a result, inventory levels are now below equilibrium. “Start activity has shifted over last year into the price ranges above $400K as builders adjust pricing to offset increased construction costs,” said Gross.

Finished inventory of housing has been steadily decreasing over the past three years now. With 1,851 finished vacant homes, the market now has 2.7 months of supply. Single family detached product comprises of only 611 finished vacant; a 1.3-month supply. There are 311 units in Sacramento; a 1.5-month supply and only 300 in the Bay area; a 1.1-month supply. The inventory level of Attached product is 1,240 finished and vacant units, a 5.7-month supply and another 2,927 units under construction with the majority (2,818) being the Bay Area. “Both the Bay Area and the Sacramento market has seen fairly dramatic decreases in Finished New Home, and existing home inventories over the past year.  All factors that will push pricing upwards,” said Gross.

Lot inventory has declined 14% over the past year and now stands at 19,184 and months of supply declined to only 35. “While seemingly high, these lots will go quickly as the market continues to improve, and not all of these lots are for sale, or in “A” locations. This slowdown of lot development will make finished lots more desirable and thus spur demand causing prices to rise.  For example, the Roseville area has fewer than 8 months of lot supply base on current absorption pace,” said Gross.  There are about 275,000 future lots in the pipeline with fewer than 15,000 lots being developed now; a very small number considering the size and potential demand of Northern California. Considering the barriers to development, the N. CA market may soon be facing a lot shortage.

“Home buyers are beginning to shop around and those who have suffered a foreclosure three years ago are beginning to enter the market once again. Given the above, Metrostudy expects the Bay Area housing market to continue improving through 2015 as the job situation continues improves and housing inventory shrinks,” said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 916-231-9370
email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.

(Roseville, CA – May 8, 2013) As 2013 begins, the Central Valley continues to demonstrate economic improvement. Job growth remains positive so far this year and improving in most areas, which appears to strengthen the demand for homes, according to a recent report by Metrostudy, a national housing data and consulting firm that maintains the most extensive primary database on residential construction in the US housing market.

The total number of non-farm jobs reached a level not seen since June 2009, standing at 1.095 million. The region added 17,500 new jobs over the past 12-months. The total numberof employed people is increasing with 1.6% more people employed than in February of 2012, again, signs pointing to stabilization. “It’s been more than four years since we have seen job growth in any of the Central Valley markets, and in February, all of the 8 counties we track had positive job growth,” said Greg Gross, regional director of Metrostudy’s Northern California, Central California, Reno and Las Vegas markets. The Central Valley unemployed population has increased to 15%; erasing the improvements made in 3Q12. Compared to the State level of 9.7%, the Central Valley unemployment rates have exceeded state and national averages, but improving nonetheless.

Annual housing starts are UP 55% to 4,904 from 1Q12 in the Central Valley, while closings are UP by 26% to 4,400. This has brought inventory levels closer to equilibrium and it appears we have reached the bottom of the market as paces are stabilizing and both quarterly starts and closings increased during 1Q12. “Builders are starting more homes to meet demand as inventories are low,” said Gross. Compared to 1Q12, quarterly new home starts increased 137% in Kern County and 68% in San Joaquin County, 92% in Stanislaus and 30% in Fresno County.

Finished inventory of homes has retreated impressively from the highs reached in 4Q06. With 876 finished vacant homes this quarter, the market has 2.4-months of supply. The finished inventory in this market is now below equilibrium, and we will continue to see production fluctuate slightly to meet the slight increase in demand expected over the next year. “Builders will be hesitant to add to their speculative inventory this year, but with their cautiously optimistic attitude, new home starts will steadily increase,” said Gross.

Vacant developed lot inventory continues to recede, as starts surpass new lot deliveries again this quarter. Months’ of supply has fallen substantially to 59 (5 years) with the increase in annual starts. We counted 24,095 finished lots throughout the Greater Central Valley. “This is the lowest level since 2006. The number of vacant developed lots has slowly declined over the past two years as lot production has all but ceased,” said Gross.  There are an additional 17,569 lots in the pipeline with 13,513 lots being excavated now, with overall development 18% lower than a year ago.

“Metrostudy expects the Central Valley housing market slowly improve over the course of the year with stronger signs of improvement by the end of 2013. Kern, Fresno and San Joaquin Counties will be most stable and consistent housing markets in all of Central Valley through 2012 and will continue to lead the Central Valley growth during 2013,” said Gross.

For information contact:
greg gross @ 916-231-9370
email ggross@metrostudy.com

About Metrostudy

Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide.  Established in 1975 in Houston, Metrostudy provides research, data, analytics and consulting services that help builders, developers, lenders, suppliers, retailers, utilities and others make investment and business decisions every day.  www.metrostudy.com

About Hanley Wood

Hanley Wood, LLC is the premier media, event, information and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Through its operating platforms, the company produces award-winning digital and print publications, Newsletters, websites, marquee trade shows and events, Market Intelligence data and strategic marketing solutions. The company also is North America’s leading publisher of home plans.